The Packers Must go Through their Toughest Opponent to Reach the Super Bowl

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Photo Credit: Corey Wilson / Packers

The Packers did an outstanding job of solving the defense of the Los Angeles Rams, and scoring 32 points on the league’s best defense. Green Bay used pre-snap motion to perfection, frequently putting Ram defenders into tough spots and capitalizing with perfect execution. Davante Adams’ second quarter touchdown against Rams’ corner Jalen Ramsey was perhaps the best example of this. Adams went in motion from the bottom of the formation towards the top, and Ramsey followed, indicating the Rams were in Man coverage. Adams then sprinted back towards the bottom, and Ramsey, taken by surprise, and picked by his own inside linebackers, was unable to keep up, allowing the Packers to score an easy touchdown.

Green Bay used similar concepts all day to keep the Rams off balance and ran the ball with surprising ease. Most importantly, Mike Pettine’s defense was able to contain running back Cam Akers, and the hobbled Jared Goff was not up to the task. It was almost certainly Green Bay’s best game of the year, and it is always nice to have those in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay is nearly the equal of Los Angeles on defense, though they go about it a different way. Where Los Angeles is outstanding in coverage and creates pressure through Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd, Tampa works in reverse, using pressure to assist their secondary. That secondary is also bolstered by two of the fastest inside linebackers in football in Lavonte David and Devon White. No other team in the league linebackers who go sideline to sideline as quickly, and no other team gets better coverage from their linebackers.

Tampa’s defense is run by Todd Bowles, who managed to confuse and pressure Aaron Rodgers into four sacks and two interceptions, including a pick-six in their last meeting. Bowles uses a combination of novel coverage schemes and blitz packages on almost every passing down, which makes picking up rushers extremely difficult. The fact that White and David are more than competent when asked to cover running backs, tight ends, and even a few receivers make this all possible, and 13 different Bucs recorded sacks this year, with nine of those rushers recording more than one. They absolutely terrorized Drew Brees on Sunday, as his lack of arm strength made it impossible for New Orleans to stretch the field. With every pass going underneath, Tampa’s speed and sure tackling made sure it never got close.

Fortunately, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, a smart coaching staff who can and will learn from their first game, and roster built to capitalize on Tampa’s weaknesses.

North and South

Tampa is built to stop short throws, and East-West runs. They play zone most of the time, with Carlton Davis at right corner, and Jamel Dean at left corner. Sean Murphy-Bunting is the slot corner, and the weak link as far as the Packers are concerned. In their first meeting the Packers were missing Allen Lazard and Tyler Ervin, who were replaced by Darrius Shepherd and Equanimeous St. Brown/Malik Taylor. Lazard’s absence was huge as the Packers could not capitalize on the Bucs weaker 3rd corner, and they missed his presence in run blocking. With Lazard, MVS, and Davante Adams, the Packers have greater flexibility in how they use zone-beaters. Flooding one side of the field with Adams, Lazard, and Robert Tonyan is a much more difficult defensive task than Adams, Shepherd and Tonyan. 

Having Lazard as a credible outside threat will also allow the Packers to create better matchups by moving Adams to the slot, where he can work off Murphy-Bunting. In the first meeting, the Bucs had Davis shadow Adams in the slot with regularity. If they choose to do so in this game, they will create a dangerous mismatch outside with Murphy-Bunting on either Lazard of Valdes-Scantling. Lazard may be the team’s 3rd receiver, but against teams like Tampa, you need your depth to create mismatches.

Aaron Jones also struggled in the first game, gaining just 15 yards on 10 carries. Jones isn’t exactly an East-West runner, but Tampa’s ability to close in quickly and take away his outside options shut him down. Both Jamal Williams and AJ Dillon were much more successful using old-school North-South power running, and that should be the focus of the Packers in this game. Tampa’s defensive line is formidable, but the Packer offensive line, even without David Bakhtiari, has excelled when permitted to fire off the line. They did a great job of this against the Rams, and while Tampa’s run defense is better, it has been vulnerable to power running since nose tackle Vita Vae broke his ankle against Chicago. Vae may be back for this game and was designated for return from injured reserve. If he plays, running the ball at all will be difficult.

Because Tampa relies on their pass rush to force check downs, they are vulnerable against deep throws, and in particular, against deep throws to the left and down the middle. The Packers struggled with that pass rush the first time around, but assuming they can right this ship and buy Rodgers some time, they should absolutely attack this team deep. Taking the top off this zone makes everything else easier on the offense, and as good as this defense is, it’s not designed to deal with power up the middle, and deep passing.

Stopping Tom Brady

On the defensive side, the formula is simple. Tom Brady didn’t gel with head coach Bruce Arians’ deep-ball philosophy earlier this year, and Tampa has shifted to a short pass, quick-throw system. Brady can still throw deep when necessary unlike Drew Brees, but generally speaking, Brady eliminated the pass rush by getting the ball out quickly and accurately. 

Mike Pettine tends to favor a soft zone as a part of the Packers “bend but don’t break” philosophy. That is absolute death against Brady, who has made a career out of carving up that exact philosophy. You beat Brady by playing aggressive press-man, take away quick throws, allow your secondary to provide time for the pass rush to get home, and hit Tom Brady. It’s going to be cold, and Brady is old. He’s never responded well to taking hits, and that becomes more and more true as time goes on. 

The Bucs lost five games this season. In four of them, Brady threw multiple interceptions. If you play aggressive defense, you may give up the occasional long score to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, but you will also force Brady into mistakes. Brady will get his scores, but Pettine and his crew need to get those turnovers, and press-man is how you generate turnovers.