Will the Packers Become the Rams?

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Photo via nfl.com

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield

While the Packers were resting and recovering for the last quarter of the season, it was still an eventful bye week, as they got quite a few breaks from the teams ahead of them in the payoff race. The Packers sit at 5-8 and still have a lot of work to do, but Carolina’s upset of Seattle, and Philadelphia taking care of business against the Giants helped keep Green Bay within striking distance should they run the table. Washington and the Giants play each other again in Week 15, ensuring at least one will take a loss (unless of course they tie yet for a second time). Washington then faces a dangerous 49ers team, an outstanding Cowboys team, and the Browns. The Giants will get the Vikings, Eagles, and Colts, likely making them underdogs in two of their final three games.

The Packers will also need to pass Seattle and keep ahead of the Falcons and Panthers. It’s a tall order, but given their relatively easy schedule, it’s not impossible. Their big potential stumbling block will be at Miami in two weeks, but coming up this Monday Night, they’ll get the Los Angeles Rams under new quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is one of the greatest college quarterbacks ever to play, but after being drafted into a dysfunctional Browns organization, and suffering several injuries, he’s never been able to put it together in the NFL. The Panthers waived him two weeks ago, and, partially to prevent him from falling to the rival 49ers, the Rams pounced.

Mayfield had something of a Cinderella story debut against the Raiders last week on Thursday night, leading a clutch, game-winning 98-yard drive to steal the game, 17-16, but it was hardly the kind of performance that inspires confidence. The most amazing thing about his Rams’ debut is that he managed to win a game for an NFL team after just two days in the system, which, while impressive, hardly makes him a major threat. Mayfield is likely to continue to struggle, especially given how undermanned the Rams are on offense.

The Rams are a harbinger of what the Packers may become in the near future. Having successfully gone all in last season with the addition of Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the Rams won their title, but age, injuries, and a difficult salary cap situation have made them one of the most disappointing reigning champs in NFL history. Much of the issue has to do with Stafford himself, who suffered an arm injury last season, and hasn’t been the same since. The NFL’s best receiver in 2021, Cooper Kupp, was lost to an ankle injury that will require surgery, and even the seemingly indestructible defensive tackle Aaron Donald will miss this game with an ankle injury. The NFL is an extremely competitive league, and things can go south quickly once your talent base begins to erode.

Easy Pickings

While the Packers can’t be counted on to beat any team in their current incarnation, the Rams should be easy pickings. They rank 27th in DVOA on offense, and while they are stout against the run, their defense ranks just 23rd against the pass. Even the lackluster Green Bay defense should be able to contain a Baker Mayfield led offense that hasn’t run the ball effectively all season. Their top receivers last game were deep threat Van Jefferson and second year man Ben Skowronek, who shouldn’t stress Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas much.

I could see the Packers getting into some trouble through overreliance on the run game, as the Rams are adept at stopping the run. All of that said, Christian Watson is likely to continue his touchdown streak as Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey has clearly lost a step, and they now rank 31st against an opponent’s primary outside receiver. Rookie Romeo Doubs is also likely to return from injury, which should stress the Los Angeles boundary corners even more.

If the Packers want to have any shot at the playoffs, they need to dispatch a weaker opponent with some level of ease. Their fundamental problem is that they haven’t been very good. Time is running out, and they need to flip that switch now, or never.

Green Bay plays on Monday Night, meaning they will have a good idea of their situation going into the game. On Thursday, the surging 49ers take on the struggling Seahawks. Green Bay will need to pass Seattle, and the 49ers can, and should lend a hand. The Commanders and Giants play each other, and whoever loses will become the Packers’ target for the rest of the season. The Packers will also need to pass the Lions, who face the Jets, and keep pace with a frisky Atlanta team, who has a relatively easy game against the Saints. Should the Packers win out, FiveThirtyEight.com lists their odds to make the playoffs at 58%.