Photo Credit: Brian Giesen/Flickr
With the preseason mercifully over and the final 53-man roster taking shape, we can finally turn our focus to the regular season, which opens on Thursday with the NFL’s oldest rivalry. The Bears are the current big bad of the NFC North, coming off a sensational season led by a vintage Bears’ defense. The Packers enter the season completely retooled after adding several significant free agents and draft picks to their underperforming defense, a new coach and a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
While we haven’t seen Rodgers once in the preseason, and we have yet to see Matt LaFleur’s new offense in anything other than its most vanilla form, there is a good chance the duo will struggle against Chicago. The strength of the Bears’ defense is the front seven, the pass rush in particular. Khalil Mack was the best defensive player in football last year, and the proper way to neutralize Mack, Akiem Hicks and Leonard Floyd is simply to throw the ball before they can get to you. A quick-passing offense is a necessity if you hope to compete with Chicago, and using quick passes is exactly how Green Bay was able to come back against the Bears last season after Rodgers was injured in the first half.
Unfortunately, the quick strike game is not how Rodgers prefers to play. He instead loves to buy time with his mobility and wait for his receivers to come open. As a result, he takes a ton of hits and sacks, though it does serve to keep his interception total down. This is exactly how the Bears and their pass rush want quarterbacks to play, as it allows them to do maximum damage. It is possible that Matt LaFleur is smart enough to scheme around the Bear strengths, but the limited history we have of LaFleur as an offensive coordinator, and a Kyle Shanahan disciple suggests the opposite. LaFleur prefers to establish a power-running look and follow up with play action to open up routes downfield. The Bears are outstanding against the run, and every run play against them will likely create unfavorable down-and-distance situations for Green Bay. While it’s certainly fine to take a few shots downfield, the long developing passes that LaFleur prefers plays to the Bears strengths.
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Defense
The key to stopping the Bears’ offense is to get and keep a lead. Matt Nagy is a smart coach who drastically improved the offense after taking over for John Fox. He also seems to understand its limitations and the limitations of Mitch Trubisky. Chicago excels in the short game, and they are built to allow Trubisky to make safe throws focusing on tight ends Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen, Tarik Cohen and slot receivers Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel, who both play outside as well but excel in short space. This offseason, the Bears continued to make moves that reflect a lack of confidence in their young signal caller, adding hybrid wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and drafting running back David Montgomery. They still have Allen Robinson as a deep threat, but the Bears are built to receive short throws and create yards after the catch.
Stopping this style of offense has been difficult for Mike Pettine’s defense, which has struggled tackling ball carriers and stopping the run. While Kenny Clark is excellent against the run, the Packer run defense may suffer for the loss of Mike Daniels as his replacements tend to be specialists against either the pass or run, but not both. The additions of Preston and Za’Darius Smith will undoubtedly be an upgrade from Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, but this is still a team that will be at its best when playing from ahead.
Overall, the Bears’ offense is limited by Trubisky. He generated most of his value with his legs last season and struggled with accuracy and interceptions when he was aggressive. The goal for any team should be to force him to make plays down the field, but the Bears know this as well as anyone. They intend to rely on their defense to stay in games and do just enough on offense to give them leads to protect. Given their personnel, it’s a good plan.
The X-factor in this game is Pettine’s defense. The Packers loaded up on defensive personnel in free agency, in the draft with Darnell Savage and Rashan Gary, and they bring back budding stars Kenny Clark and Jaire Alexander. They should be able to shut down a pedestrian offense. If they can’t in their first game, Mike Pettine’s seat will get hot in a hurry.
