For the Vikings, the Stats Beat the "Eye Test"

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Jim Bievers/ Packers.com

I will be perfectly honest and confess that I thought the Packers would lose to the Vikings on Sunday. The Packers had shown no signs of moving beyond their offensive issues, and the Vikings seemed especially well-suited to knock off the Packers as they feature a strong rushing attack led by future Hall-of-Famer and all around bad person Adrian Peterson, as well as a young constantly-improving defense. The Packers struggle against the run (17th by DVOA, though notably improved from the beginning of the season), and it was easy to imagine the Vikings leaning on Peterson, generating a lead, and relying on their defense to grind the Packers down.

Like a lot of Packer fans, I watch other games featuring NFC North teams when the Packers are not on, and I have seen the Vikings play several times this season. I’ve generally been impressed with them, especially on defense. To my eye, they looked every bit like a team that had just enough on offense with Bridgewater, Peterson, Rudolph, and Diggs, and could maintain a lead with strong defense and running. They have won a lot of close games, but that isn’t that unusual for a team based in defense and running. They looked every bit like a good young team that will continue to get better.

One of the reasons we have advanced statistics in sports is to tell us when our eyes might be lying, and going into this game, the advanced statistic of DVOA, which at its most fundamental level tells us how efficient a team is on a play-to-play basis, hated the Vikings.

Until their convincing win over the Raiders last week, DVOA saw the Vikings as only the 26th best team in football, and that win only vaulted them to 19th. It didn’t see them as particularly good at anything other than special teams, where they rank 7th. It saw them as having a worse offense (24th) than the backup-QB led Cowboys, the Jaguars, a mostly backup led Colts team, and a Struggling Ravens team. It saw them, shockingly, as having a worse defense (20th) than the perennially torched New York Giants. Where my eyes saw an up-and-coming competitive force, DVOA saw a paper tiger that fattened up on a weak schedule, and was about to pay the piper. I was aware of DVOA, but thought it was overstating their weaknesses, especially on defense. I thought I knew better than the numbers.

Instead, the Packers easily moved the ball, and the Packer defense rendered Adrian Peterson a non-factor. The aged, hoodie-sporting James Jones, all but eliminated by the recent run of good defenses the Packers faced, embarrassed every Viking DB not named Terence Newman. Eddie Lacy powered through their defensive line over and over as if it’s still 2014.  Advanced statistics indicated all of this might happen. Minnesota’s biggest weakness has been against the run, where they rank 28th and are in fact worse than the Packers. 

If Lacy was going to bounce back you couldn’t have asked for a better opponent. It’s no surprise that Randall Cobb struggled as the Vikings rank first against slot receivers with Captain Munnerlyn doing most of the damage, but they’re 27th against #2 receivers, as Jones proved.

Statistics aren’t always right, and always require context, but in this instance they were positively screaming that the Vikings were overrated, and that the Packers, despite all of their recent struggles, were still a far superior team. The Packers still have a lot of work to do on offense, and Randall Cobb’s injuries and lack of effectiveness remain a problem, but most of the defenses the Packers will face down the stretch are more like the Vikings than the Panthers. This was a good reminder that as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, those teams will usually not be a problem. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers have the 8th easiest schedule the rest of the way. The Vikings, on the other hand, have the hardest. If the Vikings crash and burn the rest of the season, you heard it here first.

Rolling Out

The Panthers and Broncos did fantastic jobs of keeping Aaron Rodgers contained in the pocket. Their defensive ends mostly served to contain Rodgers behind his guards, and their secondaries were able to cover until the pocket collapsed. Not so with the Vikings, who let Rodgers escape several times, frequently resulting in big plays.

He escaped the pocket to find Jeff Janis for a huge pass interference penalty:

And for a huge gain to James Jones:

And again on this beautiful touchdown throw to Jones:

One of the keys to defending the current crop of Packer receivers is to stop Aaron Rodgers from buying time, as the more they run the more likely it is that someone will come open. Few quarterbacks are more dangerous on the move, and I think relative inexperience played a role here as Viking pass rushers were frequently escorted harmlessly up the field. James Jones also excels at the extended play. He is always the first Packer to adjust his route to the roll-side of the field, and he never stops running.

Special Teams

The Vikings are sitting on a lot of narrow victories over bad competition, and many of those victories could have gone against them were it not for unsung punt-returner Marcus Sherels. His touchdown against the Bears a few weeks ago was the difference in the game, and his 26-yard return in overtime against the Rams put the Vikings in position for the winning field goal. He also had a nice 31-yard return earlier in the season against Detroit that led directly to another important touchdown. None of these games were blowouts, and big special teams plays were crucial components to each victory. On Sunday, not only was Sherels contained (0 return yards), but the Packers themselves made huge plays on special teams with Mason Crosby’s perfect performance on long field goals, and Jeff Janis’s electrifying 70-yard return. The Vikings can’t afford to have the script flipped on them on special teams if they hope to win, and the Packers’ dominance in this area made the game a blowout.

Adrian Peterson

Finally, Adrian Peterson had one of the worst days he’s ever had carrying the football with 13 carries for 45 yards. He did score a touchdown, but also put a game-killing fumble on the ground that was recovered by Sam Shields. Peterson started the game extremely efficiently, gaining between 4-11 yards on four of his first five carries, but from that point on he would gain 2 yards or fewer on 5 of his next 7 carries. His next carry would gain 10 yards, but also result in the fumble.

Peterson remains a force on the ground, and came into the week leading the league in rushing yards, but he hasn’t actually been that efficient in doing so, ranking only 24th in DVOA. As a receiver he’s one of the least efficient backs in the league as a pass-catcher, and he’s a liability in pass protection. He has also fumbled 6 times this season, though he has been somewhat lucky in losing only 2. While Peterson can still hurt you on the ground, his liabilities often serve to telegraph play calls or get Teddy Bridgewater hit. Running backs have more than one responsibility. Peterson excels at the one thing everyone notices, and many still call him great because of it, but in reality he is closer to average at this point, and Dom Capers’ recognition of this fact is one of the reasons the Vikings only put up 13 points.