Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, by Paul Scharre

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Four Battlegrounds by Paul Scharre

In a recent simulated dogfight between a human-piloted fighter plane and a fighter controlled by artificial intelligence, AI won. Machine learning has already defeated chess masters and in the future, it could defeat generals. AI almost certainly will have a role to play if war breaks out between superpowers.

In Four Battlefields, security analyst Paul Scharre calls AI the “new oil,” a determining resource in the struggle for dominance. Unlike oil, AI isn’t geographically or geologically confined but determined by human policy and—in that utilitarian phrase—human capital. The four battlefields of his title come down to the “key inputs”—data, the computing hardware to gather and apply data, the human resources to manage the hardware and the initiatives that promote advances in AI technology. 

At present, the U.S. is in the lead, but China isn’t far behind with the European Union lagging in third place. China has been ranked as far ahead of the U.S. in government strategy and “an operating environment conducive to AI,” but America retains a cultural advantage. As a nation of immigrants, the U.S. is a magnet for tech talent from around the world. Who wants to move to China, the Earth’s most oppressive surveillance state?

Back to the potential future war between world powers: “The increased scale and speed of operations enabled by AI could begin to push warfare out of human control.” The pace of battles directed by AI could exceed human cognition. Scharre introduces another scary thought:” Even if humans choose whether to start a conflict, they may lose the ability to control escalation or terminate a war at the time of their chosing.”