Projections Suggest Big Steps Forward for Three Young Brewers

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Photo via Tyler Black - Instagram

Tyler Black

Tyler Black

It’s still possible the Brewers will make significant additions in the second half of the MLB offseason that will dramatically alter their fortunes for the 2024 season, but the more time that passes without those moves the more likely it appears that they’ll be relying on a lot of inexperienced players to make significant contributions this season. For what it’s worth, in some cases the early projection models suggest that could be the right move.

While fans and analysts alike wait to see what the actual composition of 2024 baseball teams will be, some projection models are available to provide a look at what teams may be capable of if they opted out of all remaining moves and simply played the year with what they have now. One of the most prominent of those models is Steamer, which was created by high school math teacher Jared Cross and two of his former students. Those projections and some assumptions about playing time fuel the FanGraphs Depth Charts page, which currently has the Brewers 18th in projected talent level among 30 MLB teams and second in the NL Central behind the Cardinals.

Even that middle-of-the-road projection requires some significant steps forward from some players with minimal MLB experience, however. It’s nearly impossible to predict how a player will handle the transition from the minors to the majors, but Steamer’s numbers suggest these players are in line for significant steps forward if they get an opportunity:

Tyler Black

He hasn’t always been the most highly regarded prospect in the Brewers organization or even on his own minor league teams, but infielder Tyler Black has done nothing but hit across three professional seasons in the Brewers organization. Since the Brewers made him the #33 overall pick in the 2021 Draft the native of Canada has hit .279 with a .415 on-base and .465 slugging in 213 professional games. Black was largely a middle infielder as an amateur and in his early professional career but played the biggest share of his 2023 season at third base for AA Biloxi and AAA Nashville. 

Black has played just 39 games at the AAA level and would have to unseat incumbent Andruw Monasterio and any newcomers for playing time at the hot corner at the MLB level, but the Steamer projections suggest the Brewers should let him try. They have him batting .240 with a .342 on-base and .401 slugging in 94 games at the MLB level and providing about a win and a half of value above replacement even in a partial major league season.

Robert Gasser

Barring another move or an injury between now and Opening Day the top of the Brewers’ rotation is pretty clearly set with Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta plus the recently resigned Wade Miley penciled into the top three spots. Behind them, however, the field is significantly more open: Holdovers Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby and newcomer Joe Ross all have varying opportunities to claim a spot, but the Brewers might also be well served to consider one of Nashville’s longest tenured hurlers.

The Brewers sent lefty Robert Gasser to the AAA level not long after acquiring him in the 2022 Josh Hader trade and he’s been there ever since, logging 30 starts and pitching 161 innings there across the end of the 2022 and entirety of the 2023 campaign. Last season he posted a 3.79 ERA and struck out eleven batters per nine innings at that level while throwing the fifth-most innings of any pitcher in the International League with 135 1/3 (two of the pitchers in front of him were teammates Janson Junk and Caleb Boushley). Steamer has seen enough to project Gasser to pitch 117 innings at the MLB level in 2024 with a 4.51 ERA and be worth nearly a win above replacement. The Brewers, however, used ten pitchers to start at least one game at the MLB level in 2023 and Gasser was not one of them.

Brice Turang

While he’s not a perfect parallel for the others on this list because he’s already played a near-full MLB season, Steamer also thinks Brice Turang is poised for a big step forward after struggling at the plate in 2023. Turang batted just .218 with a .285 on-base and .300 slugging in 137 games for the Brewers in 2023 but at present he’s still the most likely candidate to play every day at second base. Furthermore, the projections have him improving his on-base plus slugging there by 106 points.

Turang turned 24 years old in November and, as we’ve noted previously, he was both one of the youngest regular players in the major leagues last season and is a player with a proven history of improving in his second opportunity at high professional levels. Turang’s glove was good enough to cover for his struggles at the plate and balance out a slightly positive Wins Above Replacement number last season, but if he improves at the plate as much as Steamer says he should he’ll be worth about a win and a half.

With all of that said, the Steamer projections don’t look favorably upon all of the Brewers’ potential contributors at this point. The four candidates on the FanGraphs Depth Chart for the Brewers at first base, for example, are all projected to be around or slightly below replacement level. This is perhaps the position the organization is most likely to shore up before spring training, as they’ve been rumored to have interest in a reunion with free agent Carlos Santana. In other cases, however, the Brewers might be well served to “let the kids play.”