Rhys Hoskins and the Decline at First Base

Fifteen players have played at least 50 games at first base for the Crew since Prince Fielder left.

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Two weeks ago, the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers gathered in the home clubhouse at American Family Field for the final time, knowing that some or perhaps even many of them would not be back with the team in 2025. For Rhys Hoskins, however, another season in Milwaukee seems relatively likely.

Hoskins played in 131 regular season games for the Brewers in 2024, an accomplishment in itself for a player who missed the entire 2023 season following knee surgery. His production at the plate, however, lagged behind his career levels. His .214 batting average, .303 on-base percentage and .419 slugging were all career lows. He hit 26 home runs but at times his game was very “all or nothing:” 40 of his 96 hits on the season went for extra bases, and he struck out in a third of his at bats.

Hoskins has a decision to make about his future in the weeks ahead, although his public comments and the money involved would all seem to point in one direction: He has the option to remain a Brewer for 2025 and make $18 million next season, plus a mutual option for 2026 with a $4 million buyout. Curt Hogg of the Journal Sentinel recently cast some doubt on whether Hoskins would do better than that guaranteed $22 million as a free agent this winter.

The Brewers may have been hoping for more than they received from Hoskins this season, but they certainly weren’t the only team that struggled to find production at first base. Leaguewide in 2024 first basemen posted a .736 on-base plus slugging, just 25 points higher than the MLB average for all players. They narrowly avoided posting a lower mark than combined MLB shortstops, a rare occurrence in MLB history. While offensive production from first basemen reached a new low this season, it’s a trend that has been going on for a while: Back in August Ben Lindbergh of the Effectively Wild podcast noted that first baseman have produced below their historic average in 12 of the last 13 seasons dating back to 2011. The fact that first basemen don’t hit like they used to is going to be tough for fans and people within the game alike to wrap their minds around. For more than a century of baseball history it’s a position that has housed many of the game’s top offensive stars, burly sluggers with light tower power that could turn games around on a single pitch. Now, however, it’s a position where teams increasingly struggle to find production on a day-to-day basis. Consider this list of players who have started games at first base during the 2024 postseason:

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  • Yankees utility infielder Jon Berti, who had never played the position before as a professional.
  • Padres utility infielder Donovan Solano, whose career OPS has been below average across his eleven MLB seasons with six teams.
  • Astros (and former Brewers) backup catcher Victor Caratini. 
  • Tigers outfielder Matt Vierling, who has a career .317 on-base percentage and had started just six games at first in his big league career.

It’s possible several factors have contributed to the decline of first basemen. It could just be a generational issue, as stars like Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt have aged and declined but have yet to be replaced by new icons at the position. It could be a reaction to trends around the game: The extreme uptick in pitcher velocity might have chased the hulking sluggers out of the sport, as there’s no time for their long swings when seemingly every reliever throws harder than the hardest throwers of prior generations. The universal DH might have created a new opportunity for teams to hide their “bat first” players that doesn’t come with a defensive penalty. It might also be that generations of advanced metrics have been built around the premise that a hot-hitting shortstop or center fielder is more valuable than the same player at a lesser defensive position and has perpetuated an outdated assumption that it’s easy to find someone to capably play first.

Certainly, it hasn’t been easy for the Brewers: 15 players have played at least 50 games at first base for the Crew in the 13 years since Prince Fielder left as a free agent following the 2011 season. If Hoskins remains for another year he could become just the second Brewer to start back-to-back Opening Days at first base since Fielder left, joining Rowdy Tellez in 2022 and 2023. 

There’s reason to believe Hoskins could have a bounce-back season as a Brewer in 2025: He’ll be a year further removed from his missed 2023 season, if nothing else, and should benefit from a full healthy offseason to prepare for another potential contract year. He’ll come with a hefty price tag that not everyone will be happy about, but the Brewers could certainly do worse than having Rhys Hoskins at first base for another season.