Third Base A Question Mark Once Again for Brewers

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Photo via Milwaukee Brewers and Joey Ortiz - Instagram

Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz

For a few fleeting months it looked like the Brewers might have solved a positional challenge that has dogged them for most of the Miller Park/American Family Field era, but a single transaction over the weekend made it appear likely they’ll be heading back to the drawing board.

The 2024 Brewers won 93 games and finished in first place in the NL Central, at least in part because they got about as much as they could possibly been hoping for from Joey Ortiz. The rookie infielder had played just four MLB games and 16 minor league games at third base before playing there 134 times as a Brewer in his first full MLB season, but FanGraphs estimates he was the second most valuable defender in the sport at his new position. 

In addition, he recovered from a rough start at the plate to be an above average hitter overall with room to grow in future seasons. FanGraphs estimated Ortiz’ value at 3.1 Wins Above Replacement for 2024, the 96th best total in all of baseball.

The last handful of years have been a great time to be a Brewers fan, but they largely have not been a great time to be a Brewers third baseman. Ortiz’s 3.1 WAR in 2024 were the most by a Brewer on the hot corner since Travis Shaw in 2017 and 2018, and only the fifth time a Brewers third baseman has posted three WAR this century. The Brewers tried out a bunch of candidates at the position between Shaw and Ortiz, but they hadn’t found much success there until this season.

Back to Uncertainty

It wasn’t an unexpected outcome, but third base went back from “solved problem” to “question mark” abruptly on Saturday night when longtime shortstop Willy Adames agreed to a free agent contract with the Giants. Adames was one of the longest tenured shortstops in Brewers history, but Ortiz has been seen as his heir apparent from the moment he joined the organization last winter. He played short in 246 of his 317 games in the minors, and his Statcast numbers from this year suggest his range was one of the best of any player at any position. It’s possible the Brewers will opt to keep him at third and move Brice Turang over to short, but for now Ortiz seems like the more likely candidate.

Ortiz’s projected move, however, reopens a hole at third base that could prove once again to be highly challenging for the Brewers to fill. While it’s not treated as being as important as some of the spots up the middle, there’s a wide disparity across baseball between teams that got production from their third basemen and those that didn’t. There were only 16 primary third basemen who qualified for the batting title and were valued above replacement level in 2024. That leaves almost half of teams either having to cobble together playing time at that spot or grading out in the red at the position. 

As one might expect from a relatively scarce position, there aren’t many free agents this winter projected to be significant contributors at third. Longtime Astro Alex Bregman is available, but the likelihood of the Brewers offering the type of contract he’s likely seeking is relatively low. Beyond him, the list includes some players (Kiké Hernández, Paul DeJong, Gio Urshela) whose production has taken a downturn in recent years and some reclamation types, including former Brewers Luis Urias and Abraham Toro.

Long-term Prospects

In the long term the Brewers have several prospects that might be the answer to this question, but one is more likely than the others to be MLB-ready to open the 2025 season. MLB Pipeline has Tyler Black as the Brewers’ #5 overall prospect and while he has bounced around between positions in the minors, he’s played third base more often than any other spot. 2023 first round pick Brock Wilken appeared poised to climb into this picture as recently as a few months ago, but his 2024 season in AA was derailed when he was hit in the face by a pitch early in the year. 

Luke Adams also primarily plays third base and his big season at Wisconsin made him one of the fastest rising prospects in the Brewers organization this year, but he’s also still only 20 and has never played above High-A. It’s also possible that all three of those players are a better long term fit at first base than third.

If the projections hold and everyone moves up the positional ladder for the Brewers this winter then Joey Ortiz will have some big shoes to fill stepping in for Willy Adames at shortstop. 

The Brewers’ next third baseman, however, will also have some work to do to replicate Ortiz’ production at that position.