Bucks Draft 2016: One Piece Away From Owning The Future

×

Expand

Here we are again, fellow Bucks fans. Draft time.

There’s no irony in the term “Bucks Fan.” As a matter of fact, in two or three years there will be many more of us. Milwaukeeans, bless their souls, will jump on a bandwagon at a moment’s notice. Or in the case of the Brewers, they’ll stay on that bandwagon when they realize day drinking with friends in a parking lot is more fun than watching baseball anyway.

The Bucks failed to move up at the draft lottery and ended up with the 10th pick. I’m not a superstitious person, but the number 10 spot has reaped quite a few rewards in recent years. NBA All-Stars Paul George, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and reigning most improved player CJ McCollum were selected at 10. From my quick analysis, about half of the players selected in this spot over the last 25 years have gone on to become at least serviceable starters at the NBA level (12 of the 25 in my unbiased calculations.)

This year, our Bucks are in the undesirable position of needing to fill a hole at the anchor positions of center and point guard. With Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker solidifying the team’s wing positions for the foreseeable future, a point guard or center should be firmly on John Hammond and the team’s radar come draft night. The Bucks are in luck, because the best players projected to be available at the 10 spot fall into those two positions.

This year’s projected draft order is by no means set in stone. There’s a huge talent discrepancy between the top two players in the draft and the rest of the field (Ben Simmons of LSU and Brandon Ingram of Duke are largely projected to go number 1 and 2), and there isn’t much of a talent gap between the remaining lottery selections. International stud Dragan Bender, a guy many insiders believed would be a surefire #3 pick, has recently been bumped by Washington State Freshman Power Forward Marquese Chriss, a guy who was projected to go anywhere from 8-15 in previous weeks.

The rest of the field is full of hit-or-miss type players with noticeable holes in their games that they’ll have to patch up to become complete players at the NBA level. Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield is a veritable Splash cousin but spent the full four years in college and may have limited upside. Combo guard Jamal Murray of Kentucky is a clutch offensive performer but there are question marks about his ability to defend with a short wingspan and a Kyrie Irving level of effort on that end of the floor. Providence point guard Kris Dunn has the size and athleticism to be the next John Wall but has a broken jump shot reminiscent of (gulp) Michael Carter-Williams. But unlike MCW, that’s the only part of his game that’s broken.

Without further ado, here’s how we think the whole thing will go down, with some analysis of the players and fits. Of course there’s a lot of room for ambiguity, because even advanced analysis hasn’t prevented teams from picking busts like Darko Milicic, Kwame Brown, Jimmer Fredette and Adam Morrison with top picks.

#1: Philadelphia 76ers- Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke

No offense to Ben Simmons, who is by all means a freakishly gifted and well-rounded prospect with prototypical size for an NBA star, Brandon Ingram simply possesses intangible skills that can’t be learned. With a silky sweet jumper, improving handles, and a frame that should fill in nicely as he matures, Ingram is genetically prepared to become NBA royalty. That is, if Philadelphia doesn’t manage to diminish his development like they’ve done with so many promising young players in recent memory.

#2: Los Angeles Lakers- Ben Simmons, SF/PF, LSU

This pick is a no brainer for the Lakers—whoever the Sixers don’t choose between Ingram and Simmons is going to end up sporting the purple and gold. Considering that Simmons is refusing to workout for the 76ers, it's possible he might fall to LA.

Simmons can do just about everything on the basketball court. He makes ridiculous plays that only he is capable of making, and his combination of elite size, fundamentals and court sense are a surefire recipe for huge fandom.

The trouble is that it’s difficult to assess how he may develop, specifically after making the unwise choice of spending his only collegiate year playing for an LSU program that was ill-equipped for a player of his caliber. As Kobe finally hangs up his jersey for good and D’Angelo Russell missteps his way out of town, you can be sure the Buss family will do everything in their power to put Simmons in a position to succeed. This offseason’s exodus of the woefully inept Byron Scott and addition of coaching wunderkind Luke Walton is sure to bode well for any young talent joining the Lakers.

#3: Boston Celtics- Dragan Bender, PF/C, International

Private workouts and posturing from GMs and agents may create the illusion of Bender slipping, but on a Celtics team heavy in backcourt players and throwing out a makeshift lineup of grind-it-out types in the frontcourt, the 7''1 Bosnian should provide much needed length and skill. He will need to put on muscle before competing for 40 minutes a night, but his versatility should give fans a glimpse of his potential from day one, not unlike last year’s rookie phenom Kristaps Porzingis.

Danny Ainge has been, and always will be, one of the keenest basketball minds there is, and he’s been known to play his cards close to the vest. I could see this pick being traded down in exchange for a proven big-man and a player he is more enamored with later in the lottery.

#4: Phoenix Suns- Marquesse Chriss, PF, Washington

Chriss quietly had one of the most impressive freshmen seasons in recent memory, but only after recent workouts has he become a hot ticket. While he may be built like Tayshaun Prince without the elite wingspan, he will come into the NBA as one of the most freakishly athletic stretch 4s out there.

Chriss’ defensive ability might not be something you regularly hear about in scouting reports, but his combination of timing and athleticism helped him develop a skill for shot-blocking that should only improve as he develops.

Long after the days of Mike D’antoni, Phoenix is still perpetually trying to play a fast-paced, run & gun offense so choosing Chriss makes sense.

#5: Minnesota- Buddy Hield, SG/SF, Oklahoma

While Kriss Dunn surely has a higher ceiling, Minnesota could prefer sharpshooter Buddy Hield here. Last week, in a Herculean effort, Hield famously made 85/100 three-pointers in a workout for the Celtics. A late bloomer, Hield made a stratospheric jump between his junior and senior campaigns at Oklahoma, going from 17.4 ppg with a .412 FG% in 2014-2015 to 25 ppg with a 501%. FG% in 2015-2016.

Paired with Zach Lavine, Andrew Wiggins and Karl Anthony Townes, you couldn’t go wrong with Hield or Dunn.

Sorry Ricky Rubio, it’s simply not working out.

#6 New Orleans- Jaylen Brown, Small Forward, California

New Orleans has floundered in their attempts to pair Anthony Davis with another exciting young star. (A side note, how many teams in any sport with arguably THE BEST PLAYER can manage to be as bad as New Orleans has been recently?)

Brown possesses elite athleticism, a decent handle and… no jump shot. However, slashers with his combination of athleticism and body control are in vogue in today’s NBA. He had a disappointing one-and-done year on an underperforming California team, but his game simply could not be more suited to the NBA.

#7 Denver Nuggets- Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Kentucky

Sorry Dunn, you continue to fall.

If the Nuggets hadn’t drafted Emmanuel Mudiay last year, a point guard who rapidly improved in all facets of his game after the all-star break, Dunn would be an easy choice.

The only one who's beating Jamal Murray at horse in this draft class is Buddy Hield. However, Murray’s weaknesses (ball-handling, sleight frame) will be complemented greatly playing next to Mudiay, who will also surely provide him with open looks. Also, the fact that Murray is nearly three full years younger than Dunn has to play into the equation.

#8 Sacramento Kings- Kris Dunn, PG, Providence

Sorry, Dunn, your fall has landed you on the NBA’s dysfunction equivalent of Roseanne.

Dunn will come into the league as one of its’ largest true point guards. He measured out larger than John Wall, who may be the gold standard at this level. Dunn’s a gifted passer, an outspoken leader and a hard worker. Unfortunately, lack of a proven jump shot and his senior status will surely result in a fall on draft night. 

Sub-question: Will Kings’ GM Vlade Divac decide to bring back Rajon Rondo after he put up solid stats in 2015-2016 on a one-year contract?

Sub-answer: The Kings have no clue what they’re doing, so probably.

#9 Toronto Raptors- Jakob Poeltl, Center, Utah 

This happens every year, doesn’t it? The guy the Bucks want gets drafted right before we pick. Toronto will be almost surely lose Bismack Biyombo to free agency (side note: come on down to Milwaukee, Bismack, we’ve got great beer, food and concerts), and the 7 “1 Austrian should have no problem manning the center spot from day one.

#10 Your Milwaukee Bucks- Deyonta Davis, PF/C, Michigan State

There should be quite a bit of talent left here for Bucks brass to choose between. Serge Ibaka-light Skal Labissiere from Kentucky, point guard with no jumper Wade Baldwin from Vanderbilt and high-flying French uber-wing Timothe Luwawu (AKA “Air France”) will be available, but the hulking Davis provides the best fit next to Jabari Parker and the rest of the Bucks’ young nucleus.

If it weren’t for red flags (bad interviews/uninspired workouts/poor conditioning), Davis would never fall this far, so this is one of those rare instances that question marks can work to provide an exclamation point to a team’s offseason period.

Davis has ample size for the center position, measuring in at 6''11 and 236 pounds at the recent draft combine in Chicago. He was one of college basketball’s best shot-blockers and offensive rebounders last season (when he was able to avoid foul trouble) and has a burgeoning face-up/back to the basket game that should only be limited by the situation he finds himself in.

If Davis can meet his potential, he may be the perfect combination of defensive presence and offensive skillset to complete the young Bucks’ core. What’s more, if Greg Monroe sticks around for the 2016-2017 campaign, Davis will be ready to take over the starting role come 2017-2018.

Other Notes

• Look for the Bucks to potentially move up in the draft. Center Greg Monroe, who proved to be a bad fit with the Bucks young core, has been linked to the New Orleans Pelicans, who own the 6th pick in the draft.
• The Boston Celtics are aggressively shopping the 3rd pick in the draft, in the hopes of acquiring an established talent like Jimmy Butler or Kevin Durant.
• Minnesota was reportedly interested in trading their pick to Chicago in exchange for Jimmy Butler, to reunite him with former Bulls head coach and new T'Wolves head coach Tom Thibodeau. Unfortunately, Chicago would want the pick as well as Andrew Wiggins in return for Butler, which is asking a bit too much. Still, look for Minnesota to potentially move the pick.
• The Bucks have two 2nd round picks, #36 and #38.