After Beating the Cardinals, the Packers Go on the Road to Face the Struggling Chiefs

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Photo by Evan Siegle/packers.com

Henry Black Oct. 31, 2021

Henry Black

Green Bay scored a huge upset on Thursday in Arizona, holding off the Cardinals 24-21 despite missing most of their skill position players on offense. 

Matt LaFleur called his best game of the season, and one of the best of his career as the Packers attacked the soft middle of the Cardinal defense with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, capitalizing on the absence of JJ Watt, and controlling the clock. Dillon was especially dominant with 78 yards on 16 carries, most of which was gained after contact. 

The Packers needed their running backs, as COVID-19 left them extremely thin at wide receiver. Davante Adams tested positive during the week though he is vaccinated, and the unvaccinated Allen Lazard had to miss the game as well due to his status as a close contact. Marquez Valdes-Scantling was purportedly close to returning, but his hamstring wasn’t in good enough shape on a short week. That left the Packers with Randall Cobb, Equanimeous St. Brown, rookie Amari Rodgers, and preseason hero Juwann Winfree. Cobb was his usual reliable self, catching two short touchdown passes, but the rest of the backups struggled with drops, and getting separation.

Season-Ending Injury

Fortunately, the Packer running backs and tight ends were able to make up for the deficiencies at wide receiver. Aaron Jones did a nice job out of the backfield, catching seven passes for 50 yards, and both Robert Tonyan and Josiah Deguara had their best games of the season, though Tonyan unfortunately suffered a season-ending knee injury during the game.  While the offense was hardly dominant, they provided the defense with just enough of a cushion, highlighted by Rasul Douglas’ brilliant interception of Kyler Murray with just 15 seconds remaining in the game. 

Douglas has been outstanding since the Packers signed him off of the Arizona practice squad, and currently ranks as the 17th best corner in football according to Pro Football Focus. If Jaire Alexander manages to return from his shoulder injury this season, they would form one of the more formidable cornerback duos in the league. In the meantime, Douglas and rookie Eric Stokes have been good enough to get the job done. Stokes struggled in Arizona, and he tends to get beaten for at least one big play per game. In this case, it was DeAndre Hopkins getting behind Stokes for a huge gain, but Stokes also tends to rally after the fact, and often plays much better for the rest of the game. That kind of inconsistency can be maddening, but if he can simply cut down on some of the bad moments, he can be an elite corner. 

The Packers next go on the road to face the struggling Chiefs, who barely managed to golf off the New York Giants in a 20-17 victory on Monday Night. While it’s no surprise that the Kansas City defense is poor, the offense has been a major disappointment, especially over their last two games. While they still rank a respectable sixth overall on offense, the book on how to slow down Patrick Mahomes is out there.

The first major problem for the Chiefs is their lack of explosive plays. Defenses have started to use a cover-two shell (similar to what many defenses use against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers), and it has severely impacted Mahomes’ deep passing. Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid occasionally lack patience and have attempted to force the issue by taking deep shots into the teeth of opposing defenses, which has only resulted in more turnovers and near turnovers.

Lateral Running Game

Teams usually combat a cover two shell with power running, but the Chiefs favor a more lateral running game, and don’t really have the horses to run effectively with power. Compounding all of these issues is Travis Kelce, the excellent receiving tight end. Ideally you have a tight end who can block as well as they catch, but that’s simply not Kelce’s game which means that teams are free to treat him more like a wide receiver, and not a threat to block in the running game, allowing them to stay keep extra defensive backs out on the field. Kelce struggles when he’s covered by a defensive back, and teams have wisely stopped giving him linebackers. Mahomes fed him the ball against the Giants, but he only gained 27 yards and had a costly fumble.

The biggest problem for Kansas City is an overreliance on Tyreek Hill. Kansas City usually spreads the ball around to many different receivers in creative ways, but Hill has been a crutch so far, with 90 targets on the season. In contrast to previous seasons, a larger percentage have been inefficient checkdowns and bubble screens. With defenses focusing on limiting deep strikes, the Chiefs are counting on Hill to provide YAC, and as a result his DVOA has cratered from 17% over average in 2020 to just 9.8% over average this season. Hill had 12 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown against New York, but it took 18 targets to generate those 94 yards. That’s not a sustainable way to generate a passing offense, and the Packers should be able to emulate the Giantsand slow the Chiefs down.

The Packer offense similarly leans on Davante Adams, but the Packer offensive line, plus Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon can punish a defense for playing with too many defensive backs on the field. The Chiefs have yet to adjust to their new reality, and as a result, they are barely hanging on as a playoff contender.