Photo Credit: Corey Wilson
The current forecast in Green Bay calls for a 34% chance of snow, a game time temperature of 26, and 11 mph winds on Sunday evening. The weather has been a ridiculously important factor for the Packers, as they are reluctant to air it out when the wind picks up and the temperature drops. It didn’t cost them against Carolina last week, but it did against the Vikings in Week 8. On Sunday, the Packers face one of the AFC’s best teams, and they play like a much better version of the Vikings.
The focus this week will be on Titans’ running back Derrick Henry, and for good reason. Henry is unlike any other NFL player in terms of speed and power. He’s bigger, taller, and faster than both Packer inside linebacker Kamal Martin and Krys Barnes and given the general state of the Packer run defense, it’s hard to see how they’ll stop him. They rank 22nd against the run according to Football Outsiders DVOA, and Henry has been a sure bet to average more than five yards per carry, and 125 yards per game against such foes. He’s not much of a threat in the passing game, but there is no running back that is more dangerous when his team has a lead.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is also enjoying a renaissance as the starting quarterback in Tennessee. Currently 3rd in DVOA behind Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, Tannehill is adept at attacking downfield to outstanding receivers Corey Davis (2nd in DVOA) and A.J. Brown (10th). Brown and Davis are almost mirror images of each other, splitting targets and catches equally, and producing nearly the same yardage totals. They will likely both eclipse 1000 yards receiving by seasons’ end. Tight end Jonnu Smith is an efficient red zone target, but the Titans don’t have much depth, and rely on their stars for offensive production.
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Passing Game
Tennessee has the best offense the Packers have faced all season, but even though their defense isn’t great, they’re far from helpless. While Tennessee is good, they rely heavily on play-action in their passing game, and they’re actually very poor on conventional passes. Play-action passing is most effective on first and second down, and as a result, the Titans really struggle on third and long. The Packer defense is actually quite effective on third and long (9th by DVOA), and if Tennessee can’t stay on schedule, they will find themselves in some trouble. The Cleveland Browns recently beat the Titans by getting out ahead of them by capitalizing on a Henry fumble, and a failed fourth down attempt by Tennessee. Cleveland’s defense is almost an exact match for the Packers, and once they were ahead Henry became a non-factor, and they were able to slow the Titans enough to win.
Tennessee’s defense isn’t particularly good, but they do rank 12th against primary receivers, and 7th against slot receivers. If the Packers want to pick on their weaknesses, Marquez Valdes-Scantling will have to rebound from last week’s rough performance, and Bob Tonya, fresh off a Pro Bowl snub, will need to have a huge game. Tennessee is dead last at stopping tight ends.
This should be a shootout, and if the Packers can get an early lead, they should be in good shape. If the weather is bad, or if the Titans manage to jump out early, it will be a long, cold night in Green Bay.
Bob’s Snub
It’s ridiculous that New York Giants tight end Evan Engram made the Pro Bowl over Robert Tonyan. While Engram has a slight lead on Tonyan in catches and yards, Tonyan has been better in literally every other category. According to advanced metrics, he leads the NFL in DVOA and he’s second in DYAR to Kansas City’s Travis Kelce. By more conventional metrics, he’s first in touchdowns, catch percentage, and yards per target. While Engram has 5 more catches, and 21 more yards than Tonyan, it took him an additional 40 targets to achieve those. Engram has only one receiving touchdown, and by any efficiency metric, he ranks near the bottom of the league. Selecting literally any other NFC tight end would have been more defensible.
Tonyan is quietly having one of the best seasons for a tight end in Packer history, and hopefully he uses this as motivation on Sunday. If the Packers are going to win, they’ll need him to have his best game of the year.
