Photo: Evan Siegle - packers.com
Packers vs 49ers Nov. 24, 2019
Packers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Alex Light face the 49ers on Nov. 24, 2019.
The Packers will have a rematch against San Francisco on Saturday Night, for the right to move on to the NFC Championship Game.
San Francisco earned that honor by knocking off former Packers’ head coach Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys in an error-filled contest that came down to the very last play, while Green Bay got to stay home, rest up, and get healthy. The 49ers got out in front of Dallas early relying on their strong running attack, especially from hybrid receiver Deebo Samuel, who had 10 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys, who ranked as one of the NFL’s top defenses, play an uncharacteristically undisciplined game, frequently losing outside contain against the speedy San Francisco backs and receivers, allowing easy gains to the outside.
McCarthy and company made some nice adjustments at halftime, but it was too little, too late. When they have a lead, the 49ers are difficult to stop, and while Dallas almost got back into the game after a horrific late interception thrown by Jimmy Garoppolo, some baffling coaching decisions by McCarthy, including a horrific run up the middle with only 14 second left, doomed the Dallas rally.
The recipe against the 49ers is quite simple, and the Packers are in a good position to attack their weaknesses. San Francisco’s offense is designed to hide their quarterback, and it’s designed well. Both Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle are among the best at creating yards after the catch in the league, and they’re able to turn short, easy throws into large gains, especially against poor tackling teams. Second year receiver Brandon Aiyuk has come into his own in this regard as well. If the Packer defense tackles well and manages to keep Samuel and Kittle in front of them, they should be fine, because when Jimmy Garoppolo is forced to throw the ball downfield, he is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
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Be Prepared
Green Bay also has to be prepared for an improved 49er run game. In their first meeting, the 49ers’ lead back was Trey Sermon, who has since been displaced by the superior, and now healthy Elijah Mitchell. More importantly, they need to be prepared for the increased role of Samuel, who excels at taking advantage of overly aggressive linebackers, something Rashan Gary is guilt of with regularity. Kenny Clark and a healthy De’Vondre Campbell should keep the Packers stout up the middle, but they also need to be smart on the outside.
On defense, the 49ers two big weaknesses are number one receivers where they rank 31st in the league, and against deep balls, where they also rank 31st. San Francisco brings a strong pass rush anchored by Nick Bosa, who suffered a concussion against Dallas, but is likely to play. They also tackle extremely well, and limit underneath pass catchers to minimal gains. But, if your line can stymie their pressure long enough for receivers to get deep, they are vulnerable. Indeed, in their first meeting, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had one of his best games of the season for this reason, and it could have been even better had Aaron Rodgers not missed him on another deep shot.
Even if they can’t put together a consistent deep attack, Davante Adams should have his way with the 49er secondary. Adams had 12 catches for 132 yards and a score in the first meeting, and there’s no reason to expect less in the 2nd. The strength of the 49er defense is against the run, and when Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback, that’s not a great strength to have.
The Packers would be well-served not to rely too heavily on their run game regardless of the conditions in Lambeau. The 49ers rank second against the run, and Green Bay struggled to run effectively in their first meeting. The updated Packer run game features more AJ Dillon, and likely the return of David Bakhtiari, but it’s still wise to keep running to a minimum against San Francisco.
Finally, Green Bay’s special teams has been better lately, but it’s still a poor unit and it nearly cost them the first game when the kick return unit allowed a 68-yard return to Trenton Cannon, setting up a 49er touchdown as the half expired. That touchdown kept San Francisco in the game, and almost let them steal a win. Hopefully the Packers play well enough that special teams aren’t a factor and they used some of the bye week to continue to work out kinks.
