Green Bay Defeats Carolina Through Imitation

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Photo credit: Mike Morbeck

Christian McCaffrey is an MVP candidate and rare dual threat running back. Aaron Jones isn’t at McCaffrey’s level in terms of volume, but he has emerged as a similarly dangerous dual threat. 

Ron Rivera made a risky but statistically accurate decision to go for a two-point conversion in an attempt to cut the Packer lead to six. Matt LaFleur made a risky but statistically accurate (barely) decision to go for a touchdown instead of kicking a field goal on the last play of the first half.

And on that final play of the first half, Jamaal Williams was turned away by defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, leaving the Packers with no points, just as on the final play of the game, Kyler Fackrell and Kenny Clark stopped McCaffrey just centimeters shy of the end zone. 

Given that regulation nearly ended in a tie and that the Panthers gained only 13 more yards than Green Bay, this is entirely appropriate. The Packers managed to win the game because, unlike last week, Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers worked Davante Adams into the game plan by hitting him down the field for big plays. Adams caught seven balls for 118 yards and helped open up the middle of the field for Jimmy Graham, who had his best game of the season. Adams looked like his old self, and if Rodgers had been slightly more on target, or if the weather had been a bit better, he would have likely pushed 200 yards. Adams was once again unable to crack the end zone, but it hardly mattered due to Aaron Jones.

Jones outdid McCaffrey, scoring three touchdowns and racking up 93 yards on 13 carries. Carolina came into the game as the NFL’s worst run defense, and LaFleur clearly noticed as Jones and backfield mate Jamaal Williams had 26 carries, almost all of which were successful. The only thing that slowed down the running game were penalties, which continued to plague the offensive line and put the Packers into more passing situations than they would have liked, but once they were able to establish a lead and lean on Jones, everything clicked.

On the defensive side, while McCaffrey had nice raw totals, he wasn’t particularly efficient, and, as on the game’s final play, frequently came up a yard or two short of converting. The Packers were especially effective in containing McCaffrey in the passing game as he had only six receptions for 33 yards. Quarterback Kyle Allen, in place of an injured Cam Newton, did a nice job in taking what the Packers gave him, targeting receiver DJ Moore, and wily veteran tight end Greg Olsen. Allen was impressive, and he’s shown that he can be a viable NFL quarterback, but he threw a key interception, tipped by Adrian Amos and caught by Tramon Williams in the end zone, to tip the scales in Green Bay’s favor.

The Packer defense still has issues with big plays, and if they don’t get turnovers, they are frankly not very good, but on Sunday they got enough stops and managed to bend without breaking. The Smith Brothers maintained relentless pressure on Allen, and in the secondary, Kevin King had his best game of the season with several impressive tackles and tight coverage. This is still a defense that swings wildly between extremes and often underplays its talent level, but they came up with big plays in big moments.

Penalties as the MVP

Penalties continue to play a major role this season, and this game was no exception. The problem with penalties is that the NFL continues to change their rules to add more and more subjectivity; consequently, penalties keep deciding games. There is a metric called EPA (expected points added), which essentially tracks how impactful any given play in a game was. The biggest offensive play in this game according to EPA was Rodgers’ 48-yard pass to Jimmy Graham, which makes sense. Unfortunately, four of the top 10 most impactful plays in this game were actually penalties. Preston Smith’s late offsides penalty on the games third-to-last play was the third biggest play of the entire game. Smith flinched at the snap, but it was a close call as he never moved his feet. Without that call, the game is over. 

Carolina was also hurt by penalties in big moments as the Packers picked up two first downs on questionable penalties in the Carolina secondary in the 2nd quarter, and of course, the penalty for roughing the passer on Gerald McCoy created a huge swing in the game. 

Every week, it seems the officials make a call or two that are as big as any actual play in the game. This hurts the game’s credibility, as officials can and do determine the outcome of certain games, but it’s also boring to watch. This game had 15 penalties (10 against Green Bay) for 110 yards, which is far too many stoppages, and far too many extra commercials. The NFL may be untouchable in terms of ratings and popularity, but things can change quickly, and they should take a more active role in making the viewing experience enjoyable.