Green Bay Packers Season Wrap-Up: A Few Giant Holes

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Photo Credit: Corey Wilson, Packers.com

There are three ways a boat can sink. The first is the Titanic method, wherein an iceberg or other large body tears one enormous hole into the ship, essentially breaking it in half. The only way to fix this is to build a new boat from scratch. The second way is to have a million tiny holes poked in the hull. This isn’t quite as bad as the Titanic method, but it’s also very difficult to fix as an enormous number of small problems requires an enormous number of solutions. The third way is to have a small number of medium-sized holes. This is easily the best possible situation involving holes in a boat, as there are a manageable number of manageable problems. In 2018, the Green Bay Packers suffered from the third problem. That’s a good thing.

If you want to be optimistic, the best place to look is the Packers’ very first game of the season against the Chicago Bears, where the team suffered from every issue that would haunt them in 2018, and then, in the second half, they found the solution to every single one of them. Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were far too conservative in the first half, and Rodgers made a habit of trying to buy time against the best front seven in football. As a result, got himself injured. Green Bay was shut out, the defense allowed Chicago 17 points, Rodgers was out of the game and the Bears would get a field goal to kick off the second half to go up 20. At that point, a funny thing happened, mostly by accident.

Mike Pettine adjusted his defense to do a better job keeping Mitch Trubisky in the pocket and limiting yards after the catch. Without help from his weapons, Trubisky had trouble moving the offense, and the Bears were kept in check. On offense, the injury to Rodgers robbed him of his mobility, and with it, his ability to buy time. Rodgers threw 18 passes labeled “short” in the second half, mostly targeting cornerback Prince Amukamara and mostly avoiding the excellent Bears cornerback Kyle Fuller. The quick strike offense kept the pass rush at bay, and the back end of the Bears’ secondary was unable to keep Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison in check.

Had the Packers taken a few additional lessons from this game, gotten a bit lucky and stayed a bit healthier, they probably would have made the playoffs. They don’t have any control over things like Clay Matthews getting flagged for perfectly acceptable hits on quarterbacks, but they can take a few steps to emphasize what went right and fix what went wrong.

Building for the Future

The Packers’ defense finished among the worst in the league, and I would be surprised if Mike Pettine returns as defensive coordinator, but when healthy, the talent level was in good shape. Kenny Clark is a rising star and anchored the line against the run while also supplying a surprisingly strong pass rush. Mike Daniels was also his typical dominant self, and the two of them together served to open things up for Blake Martinez, who is well above average at inside linebacker.

In the secondary, Jaire Alexander had a sensational rookie year, quickly becoming the team's’ number one outside corner, and the late-season acquisition of Washington’s Bashaud Breeland gave the Packers their best duo of outside corners in years. Breeland is a free agent, but it would not be a surprise to see him back. Tramon Williams is still technically sound, however he no longer possesses the speed to play corner. That said, a late-season move to safety was a nice fit.

The biggest issue on defense was outside linebacker, where Clay Matthews is no longer useful outside of providing an occasional pass rush, and Nick Perry is an expensive disaster. I expect the Packers to spend a high draft pick or two on the position, as the draft is allegedly talent-rich with edge players. If the Packers plug this reasonably-sized hole and add some secondary depth, there is no reason they cannot rebound immediately.

Offense

I’m not sure anyone understood just how important Geronimo Allison was until he was gone. Randall Cobb is only useful as a third option at this point in his career, and his Packer career is likely over as a result. Without Allison, Davante Adams did his best, but it was too easy to devote extra bodies to him, and too easy to limit him after the catch. Acquiring a second threat at receiver is the next largest concern after edge rusher, and the Packers should look to free agency to do it as rookie receivers usually take a few years to develop.

Both late round rookie receivers contributed more than could possibly have been anticipated, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling excelling early as a deep burner, and Equanimeous St. Brown emerging late as an all-around threat. That said, it would be folly to count on either as a solid second option in year two. I still have high hopes for Jake Kumerow as well, but he did not impress with increased playing time down the stretch.

The Packer offensive line took too much unjustified criticism this season. David Bakhtiari is the best left tackle in football, and Corey Linsley and Lane Taylor are both excellent as well. While Bryan Bulaga suffers occasional nagging injuries, he generally plays through them, and when he is on the field he is one of the three best right tackles in the game. The offensive line was, quite simply, the best pass-blocking line in football, and it’s a crime that they allowed as many sacks as they did due to the poor play of the quarterback they did such a good job protecting.

The biggest hole, and the toughest to fix, is Rodgers himself. Rodgers had a good season on paper, but he frequently failed in high-leverage situations, especially on third down where his tendency to hold the ball too long got him sacked repeatedly. Rodgers’ lack of trust with his young receivers led him to miss or ignore them when they were frequently open. Due to age and some bad habits he’s developed over the past few seasons, Rodgers was extremely inaccurate as a passer, ranking 26th in completion percentage.

A new coach will need to bring some discipline to an ornery veteran who needs to trust the scheme and have his mechanics rebuilt. Rodgers needs to be one of the three best quarterbacks in the league to justify his salary, and this season he wasn’t even close.

The Packers had the third best rushing attack in football according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic, the second year in a row they have been top three in the category. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are among the best duos in the league. While the team could use an upgrade at tight end, where Jimmy Graham was an enormous disappointment, that is a luxury that can take a back seat to bigger issues.

The Front Office’s Challenge

A mature front office would have a good handle on these deficiencies, and a good plan to fix them, but there is so much up in the air with Green Bay that nothing is assured. This is the big test for Brian Gutekunst and Mark Murphy, and it should be easy to judge their success or failure quickly. Gutekunst’s first draft seems weak after Alexander, and many of his free agent signings did not work out. He now gets to make the biggest decision for the franchise in a decade in replacing Mike McCarthy, and whatever decision he makes will likely have repercussions lasting for another decade to come.