PHOTO CREDIT: KeithAllisonPhoto.com
Packers at Redskins 8/19/17
Establishing the run has historically been a poor idea. Running plays have not been as efficient as passing plays, and as a result, the NFL has mostly shifted to a passing league. The result of this is that NFL defenses have shifted to stop the pass, using lighter, quicker fronts, and more defensive backs at the expense of linebackers. I’m starting to wonder if NFL defenses may have shifted too far, and on Sunday, it was the running game that ruled the day for Green Bay.
The Efficient Mr. Jones
Aaron Jones had his best game as a Packer. With Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams both out with injuries, it could not have come at a better time. Jones tallied 107 yards on 19 carries, and more importantly, added 75 yards on seven receptions. Jones also scored four touchdowns, but the most impressive part of his game was that his rushing effort was as efficient as Aaron Rodgers as a passer according the advanced stat Expected Points Added (EPA), with nine each.
In a normal football game, the running game is about half as efficient as the passing game. Jones didn’t just put up eye-popping stats, he was, for this game, as valuable as the other Aaron on offense. That almost never happens.
Jones has ranked highly according to advanced stats like DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for his entire career. The only questions about his ability were around durability, and the passing game. There has been a large-scale shift in NFL running backs where players like Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, and James White are now preferred over the Adrian Peterson-style grinders. Any modern running back needs to be as effective in the passing game as the running game, and if Jones can repeat this performance going forward, he has a good chance to be one of the NFL’s best.
Stay on top of the news of the day
Subscribe to our free, daily e-newsletter to get Milwaukee's latest local news, restaurants, music, arts and entertainment and events delivered right to your inbox every weekday, plus a bonus Week in Review email on Saturdays.
Help at Wide Receiver
Without Davante Adams the wide receivers struggled to get open. Matt LaFLeur wisely compensated for Adams’s loss by targeting Jones and the tight ends, but sooner or later a backup receiver will have to step up. The most valuable play by a receiver on Sunday was a pass interference penalty on a deep ball to Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
MVS was targeted four times, catching only one, for 18 yards. Geronimo Allison was barely better, hauling in only two of six targets for 28 yards. Packer receivers combined for 50 yards in this game, while Cowboy’s third option and former Packer Randall Cobb had 53 yards on three catches.
If Adams misses extended time, and perhaps even if he doesn’t, the team may want to explore acquiring an upgrade at receiver. They simply lack talent after Adams, and while they can hide this weakness to some extent, eventually an opposing defense will punish them for it. Between Denver, Arizona, Miami, Atlanta, and Cincinnati already having been eliminated from realistic contention, there should be some interesting names available.
The Defense Continues to Struggle
This Packer defense is going to create turnovers, but it’s still having issues limiting yards. Amari Cooper got the best of Jaire Alexander for the first time this season, and the Cowboys never really had trouble moving the ball through the air, or on the ground. Ezekiel Elliott averaged over five yards per carry and added few receptions as well.
Dak Prescott had over 450 yards through the air, but it wasn’t enough to overcome three interceptions, one each by Alexander, Kevin King, and Chandon Sullivan. Sullivan is a young journeyman corner who may have had the most impressive pick, reading Prescott’s eyes and jumping a quick throw.
Alexander’s pick, on the other hand, was bobbled by Cooper, and probably should have been a Cowboys’ touchdown. Turnovers are great, but they can also be fickle, and the Packers need to clean up their base defense. They have all the ingredients of a dominant defense as the Smith Brothers are among the league leaders in hurries, the secondary is much improved, and Blake Martinez has been good at chasing down backs. Pettine needs to get these elements working in tandem instead of picking his poison.
