Packer Season Wrap-Up

While the Packers’ suffered a disappointing loss in the NFC Championship Game, it’s hard to see the 2020 season as anything other than a success. Such losses are disappointing, but the Packers quickly addressed the fundamental issues with the team, moving on from defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, whose contract expired, as well as special teams’ coordinator Shawn Mennenga. While the defense still has holes that need to be addressed this offseason, the Packers enjoy the talent base of a Super Bowl contender, and that should not change entering the 2021 season. Offense is more consistent from year to year, and the Packers have the best offense in the league. 

Grades

Quarterbacks: A

Aaron Rodgers finished an MVP season leading the league in almost every important category, from advanced stats like DVOA, CPOE, and EPA per play, to more conventional metrics like completion percentage, touchdowns, and interception percentage. This was Rodgers’ best season since at least 2014 as he completely meshed with Matt LaFleur’s system, trusting his reads, and making the most of his open receivers. The fact that Rodgers was still able to minimize his interceptions while simultaneously averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and leading the league in completion percentage at 70.7% is almost unfathomable as Rodgers was an impossible blend of gunslinger and game manager. 

When Rodgers won the MVP award in the past, he has generally had an outstanding cast of receivers. In 2011 the Packers featured all-pro talent at every skill position, and in 2014, Rodgers had peak Jordy Nelson to go with Randall Cobb and a young Davante Adams. The only true all-pro on the 2020 squad was Adams, and while Adams is among the leagues’ best receivers, creating this level of efficiency with late-round talent at receiver and tight end is incredible. 

Receivers: B

Davante Adams is an A+ talent who put up an A+ season. Despite missing two games, Adams led the league in touchdowns with 18, and yards per game with 98.1%. Next to Rodgers, he is almost certainly the most important player on the team, capable of playing outside, in the slot, working underneath, or going deep. His ability to generate clean releases, and his agility in small spaces is among the best in league history, and the Packers made the most of him for the first time this season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling improved immensely as the season progressed. Prior to 2020 he was exclusively a deep threat with questionable hands, and while the hands remain questionable, he’s now a threat on any branch of the route tree, and a game run-blocker. 

Allen Lazard regressed from a breakout 2020. He is a savvy player who excels in getting to the sticks and converting first downs, but he also dropped far too many passes, and had several high-profile missed assignments. His run-blocking remains unparalleled, but going forward, he needs to ensure he’s blocking the correct people, and running the correct routes. While he was interfered with on a key interception in the NFC Championship game, he also should have been able to fight off a much smaller Sean Murphy-Bunting without issue, and a misses assignment on their first offensive drive cost the Packers a touchdown. 

The offense and special teams run much better when Tyler Ervin is available. Unfortunately, Tyler Ervin missed half the season, and injuries have been a genuine problem with him. Equanimeous St. Brown and Malik Taylor are nothing more than roster filler at this point. Given ample opportunity to fill in for an injured Lazard, none could take advantage. 

Offensive Line: A

The lasting memory of the offensive line will probably be Tampa’s rushers blowing by Rick Wagner and Billy Turner. That’s not fair to either individual player, or the line, which was among the best in the league in both pass and run blocking. 

Green Bay had plenty of good luck this season, but that luck deserted them late when left tackle David Bakhtiari was lost for the season with a torn ACL in practice. Bakhtiari is the best left tackle in football, and it’s easy to imagine the Tampa game ending differently had he been available. Rick Wagner filled in admirably at the position, and there is no shame in struggling against a line as talented as Tampa’s for the most part, the line held up as well with Wagner as it did with Bakhtiari, and you can’t really ask much more from your backups. 

The combination of Wagner and Billy Turner at right tackle also ensured the team didn’t miss the departed Bryan Bulaga. Turner’s versatility was key to keeping Rodgers upright through a good amount of shuffling over the course of the season. 

On the interior, Elgton Jenkins put in an all-pro season at guard, however his real value also stems from his versatility, as he showed the ability to play, and dominate across the line. With Corey Linsley potentially leaving as a free agent, he may be called on to move to center next season. If he does, they won’t lose a thing. Jenkins dominated an injured Aaron Donald in the divisional round, which included goading him into a key unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. 

That said, Corey Linsely was incredible at the center position, earning first team All-Pro status, and likely a ton of money as a free agent. The Packer run game was especially effective up the gut, and the Linsley-Jenkins combo is the reason why. 

If the line had a weak spot, it was Lucas Patrick at right guard. Patrick is merely average and doesn’t offer the versatility of his line mates. While he can move bodies in run blocking, he is also prone to getting overpowered in pass blocking. Most jail-break sacks of Rodgers this season were his fault. Patrick isn’t a disaster, but the team could improve the position. Rookie Jon Runyan played well in small spurts and is a candidate to take over in 2021.

Running Backs: A

The offensive line makes things easy for the Packer running backs, who were among the most efficient producers in the league. 

Aaron Jones finished 5th in DVOA, gained over 1100 yards, and scored 9 touchdowns. While he wasn’t the receiving threat he was in 2019 much of that can be attributed to the scheme, which saw Robert Tonyan running those routes to greater effect. Jones was an adequate dump-off option and very good in pass protection. He is now a free agent, and given the Packers’ cap situation, it’s very unlikely he will return.

Not to worry, because 2nd round pick AJ Dillon was more efficient that Jones in a smaller sample size. Dillon is more of a North-South runner, but he has excellent wiggle for a big back, and he’s as capable of breaking big runs as Jones. Like most young backs, Dillon needs some work in the passing game and in pass protection, but that will come with experience. In the meantime, the Packers should continue to rely on Jamaal Williams.

Like Jones, Williams is a free agent. Unlike Jones, his conventional stats will likely make him affordable enough to bring back, and they should do so. Williams does all the little things exceptionally well. His pass blocking is among the best in the league for a running back, and he almost never drops a pass. Williams doesn’t have the flashy stats of Jones or Dillon and averaged a mere 4.2 yards per carry this season, but don’t be fooled. Williams often draws the toughest running assignments when defenses go heavy, and his yards gained over expected (based on heavy boxes), were superior to Jones. While Dillon develops his advanced skills, it’s imperative they keep Williams.

Tight Ends: B

The Packers got what they needed from their tight ends, with Robert Tonyan providing one of the most efficient receiving performances in team history, and Marcedes Lewis mauling opponents as a blocker. The problem with the unit is their lack of versatility, which hampers Matt LaFleur’s ability to use the full playbook. The platonic ideal for this team would be to have doppelgangers of the 49ers’ George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. Kittle is one of the best receiving tight ends in football, while also serving as an elite blocker. Juszczyk is a crushing lead blocker, and outstanding receiver out of the backfield. 

Tonyan is essentially half of a Kittle, and his blocking still leaves a lot to be desired. While he produced gaudy numbers and led the league in DVOA, his Yards After Catch numbers were not great, and he looks like a player who really benefits from the scheme. Tonyan’s greatest assets are his hands, and he never ever drops a ball, but while he is fast, he’s not shifty, and because his blocking is suspect, he isn’t always the best fit. When the Packers shift their play call to exploit a light defense by running, Tonyan is a liability. He is a useful player, and he had a very productive 2020, but if he could get his blocking up to even average, he would be so much better.

Marcedes Lewis is the other half, and while his blocking remains great, he is one of the slowest skill position players in the league, and likely one of the slowest to play the game in the modern era. Just as Tonyan doesn’t contribute as much as he should when the Packers shift to power running, Lewis cannot exploit heavy defenses in the passing game. He’s good at what he does, but that becomes less and less valuable every year.

Jace Sternberger was supposed to bring that balance to the Packers’ tight end force, but his blocking is, if anything, worse than Tonyan’s, and his receiving is a work in progress. He might be a bust.

Josiah Deguara was drafted to be the Juszczyk/H-Back/fullback in this offense, but was lost for the season to a knee injury. He’ll have to start over from scratch. Dominique Dafney showed some promise later in the season, and if Deguara encounters any setbacks, you could do worse. 

Defense

On offense, Matt LaFleur has the advantage of a hall-of-fame quarterback who can target opposing defensive weaknesses, or, in a pinch, lean on the Packers’ considerable strengths. While offense is about maximizing your best players, running a defense is often more about minimizing your worst. His failure to do so is why Mike Pettine’s contract was not renewed, but it’s not entirely his fault. That Packers have holes at every level of defense, and should focus their offseason attention, once again, at firming up the secondary.

Defensive Line: C

In the second half of the season, it quickly became clear that Kenny Clark had been injured for much of the first half. His pressure rate and run-stopping improved and peaked right at playoff time. When he is healthy, he’s just below Aaron Donald as a defensive force upfront. 

It’s a good thing too, because the rest of the defensive line is atrocious. The team clearly overpaid for Dean Lowry based on some small sample size pass rushing success. He’s a huge liability against the run, and the minimal pass rush he does provide is not worth the tradeoff. I considered Montravius Adams a bust coming into this season, and he remains a bust. Kingsley Keke was good in limited snaps and should see his role increase next year. He has the potential to be a nice two-way player and generated a surprising amount of pressure. Snacks Harrison wasn’t on the field enough to provide a lasting impression, but he’s still excellent against the run. The Packers would be wise to keep him if only as a weapon to counter the league’s few elite power rushing teams like Baltimore.

Outside Linebacker: B-

The elephant in the room is Preston Smith, who followed an outstanding 2019 with an enormous crash in 2020. Smith is at his best as a rusher and run-stopper, but in a baffling move by Pettine he was asked to play coverage far more than is wise. This clearly had an impact on his game overall, but it doesn’t excuse his struggles at the things he is supposed to do best. There is a good chance he has played his last down as a Packer, but don’t be surprised if he has a bounce-back season with another team.

Za’Darius Smith was excellent as always, but he too suffered from too much Pettine cuteness. Smith moved all over the formation and did a fine if unspectacular job inside and out, but he excels as a pass-rusher, and every down he spent doing something else was a lost opportunity. If nothing else, Za’Darius proved himself to be a pro, and will likely excel under a new defensive coordinator. 

Finally, Rashan Gary enjoyed a legitimate breakout season. Gary was drafted as a raw, toolsy edge rushing project. Those players have high bust rates, but Gary entered camp in great shape, and was able to put his athletic gifts to good use. I suspect part of Pettine’s creativity with Preston and Za’Darius Smith was to compensate for Preston’s struggles, however the better answer would have been to give Gary more of Preston Smith’s snaps earlier, and just let him get after quarterbacks. Instead, Pettine lest Preston struggle for far too long, and worked all three together in specialized pass-rushing packages. That’s all fine and good if all three warrant being on the field. They did not.

Inside Linebacker: C-

Giving this group a C- is a colossal upgrade from the norm, and even if the team doesn’t improve this personnel group, there is, for the first time in a long time, reason to expect some development from within. 

Christian Kirksey really struggles with speed, but he’s a savvy player that happened to be in the right place at the right time for a few picks this season. That said, outside of those picks, he was a huge liability in pass coverage. Kirksey is best used as a run-stuffer and occasional blitzer. He is fine.

Krys Barnes, on the other hand, just might be something. The biggest issue with Barnes is simply his health as he is on the small side, and seemed to suffer contusion-related injury every game. When he was healthy, he was very good in lateral pursuit, and good enough when called upon to fill a hole. Barnes isn’t great in coverage, but at least his speed allows him to make up for some poor technique. When he was healthy, he was a difference maker.

Rookie Kamal Martin also spent far too much time on the sidelines dealing with injuries, but, like Barnes, when he was on the field, he flashed potential. While Barnes excels going side to side, Martin was a thumper, often stoning ball carriers in their tracks. Like every other Packer inside linebacker, he struggles in coverage, and linebacker coverage, inside and outside, was an enormous team weakness, but Martin can be a useful player going forward, and could still develop into a better all-around player. Ty Summers is of no value in coverage and not stout enough against the run. 

Corner: B

The B is based almost entirely on Jaire Alexander, who was one of the best corners in the NFL, and one of the most valuable defensive players in the league. Indeed, the fact that the Packer defense finished as an average defense despite the presence of Alexander is the single biggest indictment of Mike Pettine. Alexander consistently shut down opposing number one receivers, and anyone else unlucky enough to draw his attention. He turned that tight coverage into interceptions in the playoffs, which should provide a glimpse of the greatness that is to come. 

Chandon Sullivan is an adequate slot corner, who makes the most of his limited athleticism. As we saw against Tampa, he is strictly limited to the slot and struggles against good outside receivers, but the Packers ranked very well against slot receivers this year, and while part of that is Alexander’s work in zone, part of it is also Sullivan.

Kevin King, on the other hand, is a disaster. King is not without talent, and in 2019 he was able to capitalize on the outstanding Packer pass rush (and a slate of awful opposing quarterbacks) to pick up five interceptions. As the Packer pass rush struggled in 2020, so did King, who clearly isn’t the same player who blew away the scouting combine after a series of leg injuries. Over the last 20 years, the only corner as tall as King to succeed in any way is Richard Sherman, and King lacks the physicality that makes Sherman great. King’s awful coverage against Scotty Miller at the end of the first half of the NFC Championship game is one of, if not the biggest play of that game. Tampa knew exactly who to attack, and how. King is a free agent, and that should be that.

Josh Jackson played well in the middle of the season, but at some point he entered the doghouse and was never heard from again. While he was a walking pass interference penalty, it’s still odd that he was unable to push King. I like Ka’Dar Hollman more than most. He’s one of the better athletes on the team, and he has shown himself to be up to the task outside in limited action. He seems to have fallen out of favor as well.

Safety: B+

Adrian Amos isn’t a star, but he’s exactly the type of smart, veteran safety the Packers need. While Amos occasionally ends up looking silly in coverage, it’s almost always because Pettine’s play call has forced him into coverage responsibility outside of his comfort zone. It’s surprising how often he was up to the task. In the NFC Championship game, he bounced back from a rough play to make a nice play and pick of Tom Brady that led directly to a Packer touchdown.

Amos is excellent in run support as well, and even recorded a couple sacks for good measure. He continues to torment his former team, and to prove the Packers got the better end of the unofficial Adrian Amos-Ha Ha Clinton-Dix swap. 

Darnell Savage is a rising star. Amos is the perfect complement for Savage, as he Savage is prone to freelancing, which can occasionally get him into trouble, he also started making more correct reads, and making plays as the season wore on. Many will remember his failure to break up a bomb to Chris Godwin in their final game, but even on that play he had good coverage on an elite receiver, and Godwin’s bobble likely hits the ground nine out of ten times. 

Backup Will Redmond was awful, and his missed interception, and missed coverages against Tampa likely cost them the game. Redmond is easily replaceable and offers no value.

Raven Greene is good as the hybrid dimebacker/safety, however he is also undersized, and keeps getting hurt. 

Special Teams: D

Mason Crosby made all his field goals despite a terrible job by long snapper Hunter Bradley. Crosby missed several PATs, but it was rarely his fault, as Bradley and JK Scott repeatedly failed to execute one of the most routine plays in football. JK Scott was also awful as a punter, and his failure to improve should lead them to look elsewhere. They are lucky they punted so little. 

Shawn Mennenga’s coverage units were atrocious, and seemingly made at least one extremely damaging and high profile mistake every single game. The special teams rot in Green Bay runs deep, and new special teams’ coordinator Maurice Drayton has his work cut out for him.

2021 Outlook

The Packers will have some hard decisions to make in the offseason, but they should return an outstanding roster in an increasingly weak division. Above all, they need to address their pass defense, which ultimately led to the end of their season. That said, there is still room for the offense to improve, and the LaFleur-Rodgers combination should remain just as deadly in 2021, and any improvement from Mike Pettine’s replacement should have Green Bay back in contention for a title in short order.