Packers Defeat Washington, But Face a Tough Task on a Short Week

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Photo by Evan Siegle/Packers.com

Marcedes Lewis - 10.24.21

Marcedes Lewis

There was a lot to like in Green Bay’s convincing win over Washington Sunday at Lambeau Field. Matt LaFleur put together a savvy game plan to exploit the weak and undermanned Washington pass defense, while also saving some wear and tear on Aaron Jones for the upcoming short week. The defense finally stopped an opposing team in the red zone multiple times, highlighted by a beautiful interception by Chandon Sullivan. Most importantly, the Green Bay front dominated, especially Kingsley Keke and Rashan Gary, who combined for 3.5 sacks, and a crucial forced fumble in the third quarter. 

That forced fumble by Gary, and recovered by Dean Lowry, led directly to Aaron Rodgers third touchdown pass of the game, a dime to tight end Bob Tonyan. Rodgers managed to spread the ball around more than usual as five Packer receivers had at least four targets, and Tonyan, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard all scored touchdowns. This is a welcome development as Davante Adams landed on the Covid list Monday, and while he is vaccinated, NFL protocols make it unlikely that he will play on Thursday against Arizona. 

The Packers have succeeded without Adams in the past, but in those instances, Adams was not such a focal point of the offense. Last season Adams received about 30% of available targets from Aaron Rodgers, and when Rodgers did target other receivers, they produced only slightly worse than Adams. This season Adams is taking 36% of targets, and he averages almost 3 yards per target more than the rest of the receiving corps (10.1 to 7.3). Matt LaFleur has done a wonderful job of scheming players open in the past, but Tonyan and Lazard will have to continue to perform at the level they did against Washington, and with the game in Arizona on Thursday, there is not as much time available to craft a sophisticated game plan.

Important Plays

On the plus side, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was activated off of IR, and is expected to play. The Packer deep threat struggled before he hurt his hamstring, as Rodgers continually missed him on his deep throws, but Rodgers has rounded into form since then, and hopefully it doesn’t take long to reestablish their chemistry. Randall Cobb also continues to make at least a few important plays per game and should be able to fill in competently out of the slot. Acquiring Cobb from Houston continues to pay dividends, and it’s a big theme in this game, as Arizona owes much of its lofty 7-0 record to robbing the Houston Texans of key assets.

While Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray, and the Arizona defense gets most of the accolades, it is their defense that has transformed the Cardinals into serious Super Bowl contenders. After finishing 2020 10th in defensive DVOA, they’ve shot up to second so far this season. Their biggest addition of the offseason was former Wisconsin Badger JJ Watt, who signed a two-year deal worth $28 million after asking for his release from Houston. Watt is injury prone, but so far in 2021 he’s been healthy, and dominant in pairing with Arizona’s other outstanding pass-rushers, Chandler Jones and Markus Golden. All-Pro safety Budda Baker anchors a very good, but not great secondary that can occasionally struggle outside, but without Adams, the Packers will have a hard time exploiting their weaknesses. 

On offense, the Cardinals again benefitted from Houston’s incompetence when they traded running back David Johnson for receiver DeAndre Hopkins before the 2020 season. Hopkins is one of the best receivers in football, and Houston was absolutely fleeced in the deal. In addition to Hopkins, Christian Kirk is having a breakthrough season, and veteran AJ Green has proven to have something left in the tank. The Cardinals run at a breakneck tempo, especially early in games, relying on pace, and a modified version of Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense to tax defenses. Until this season, defenses have largely been able to stop Arizona’s offense by playing very light defenses and forcing Kyler Murray into underneath throws. That really hasn’t changed, but with the addition of running back James Conner, they now have a power back to punish light boxes. 

Slow the Offense

To slow down the Arizona offense, the Packers will have to be diligent at tackling what is in front of them, and Eric Stokes and Kevin King are vulnerable to this style, especially when facing someone as skilled as Hopkins. Fortunately for Green Bay, there is a cost to Arizona’s high-tempo approach. Aaron Rodgers is almost the polar opposite of Kyler Murray, using every second of play clock to get people in the right spots, and runs LaFleur’s creative offense. The Arizona passing game is comparatively simple, using a limited route tree without much pre-snap motion. Defending it is much more about executing than about deciphering complex routes and formations. 

Arizona also tends to get sloppy with their tempo. They led the league in false starts last season and lead the league with 12 so far this season. They also fumble a ton and have been extremely lucky to only lose one of 13 fumbles so far this season. On the defensive side they have been almost as lucky, recovering nine of 11 forced fumbles. Fumble recoveries are essentially random and tend to regress to 50% over time. Murray has six fumbles, including 3 aborted snaps, and the Packers will have opportunities to create turnovers if they’re savvy.

The Cardinals are an excellent team, and their style of play is almost exactly the opposite of what the Packers do. On short rest, their fast and simple style offers some advantages over LaFleur’s complex scheme. If Adams can’t go, the game will come down to just how quickly Matt LaFleur can put together a plan.