Photo: Evan Siegle - packers.com
Packers celebrating vs. Ravens Dec. 19, 2021
The Packers survived a tough road game against an undermanned Ravens team on Sunday afternoon, and while there is some cause for concern on the defensive side, the bottom line is that Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to let the Packers lose to an inferior opponent.
Baltimore deserves a ton of credit for keeping this game close, as they were missing their starting quarterback, two starting running backs, a few offensive linemen, their best interior pass rusher, and their entire secondary. In just his second start, backup quarterback Tyler Huntley did an outstanding impression of starter Lamar Jackson, completing 28 of 40 passes for 215 yards, and two scores, while adding another 73 yards, and two scores on the ground. Huntley’s mobility was a huge problem for Green Bay’s linebackers, who frequently lost contain, and allowed huge gain.
Green Bay has also struggled with tight ends all season, and Baltimore’s Mark Andrews was no exception. Andrews was able to bully himself open against safety Darnell Savage on multiple occasions, catching 10 balls for 136 yards and 2 scores. Andrews was an absolute force, and Green Bay never really managed to slow him down regardless of who they assigned as a defender. Fortunately, the Packers held everyone else largely in check, including Hollywood Brown who had just 43 yards on 14 targets.
Passing Attack
Huntley and Andrews made for a wonderful two-man show, and it was almost enough to pull off the upset, but Aaron Rodgers managed to use every weapon in the Packer arsenal effectively in one of their most diverse games of the season. The Packer passing attack usually relies, to an absurd degree, on Davante Adams, who leads the league in target share. Baltimore did everything in their power to stop Adams, who still finished with six catches for 44 yards and a score, but for the first time, the other Packer receivers and tight ends came through. Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the way with five receptions for 98 yards and a score. MVS wasn’t just a deep threat in this game, and he made several tough catches over the middle to keep drives alive, while Allen Lazard chipped in on a few key conversions.
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Perhaps the most surprising turn of events was the production of the Green Bay tight ends, who, as a unit, caught seven of nine targets for 88 yards. Marcedes Lewis was the biggest contributor as the outlet option when Aaron Rodgers ran play-action, but Tyler Davis is worth keeping an eye on as the season winds down. Davis made a nice 22-yard reception down the seam, while also holding his own as a blocker. While Lewis and Josiah Deguara aren’t really downfield threats, Davis could provide an element to the passing game that has been missing since Robert Tonyan was lost for the season. The Ravens put together an outstanding game plan and executed it about as well as they possibly could. When you’re up against Aaron Rodgers, it barely matters.
Analytics v. Old School
The game ultimately came down to a controversial two-point conversion attempt as the Ravens scored late to get within a single point. Between the Ravens and Chargers, the league has seen a number of “analytics” decisions not work out over the past two weeks, and when Tyler Huntley’s last gasp pass to Mark Andrews was deflected away by Darnell Savage on their two-point attempt, we seemed to have another on our hands. What makes Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh’s decision to go for two different is that it wasn’t actually supported by most in the analytics community. Ben Baldwin of the Athletic tweeted shortly after that he would have preferred the extra point, and several others agreed.
In end-game situations, having some ideas of the probabilities involved can help guide us to the correct decision, but often there is no clear-cut correct answer, and we should give coaches some leeway for weighing game-specific concerns. In this game, while Baltimore managed to hang with Green Bay all game, they were extremely shorthanded in the secondary, and Harbaugh probably correctly concluded that they would be slight underdogs in the extra period. Putting their fate on a single play, where they control the ball instead of Rodgers, does make some sense in that case.
That said, there is another important point to consider. When Baltimore failed to convert their two-point try, there were still 42 seconds on the clock, and Green Bay still possessed a timeout. Had Baltimore converted for a one-point lead, Aaron Rodgers would have had plenty of time to mount a drive into field goal range for Mason Crosby. Some, including Baldwin, have argued that Green Bay would have been more likely to simply go to overtime if the score were tied versus trying to win in regulation when trailing, and so for Baltimore, taking the PAT with so much time left actually made the most sense.
Both decisions are defensible, but it’s worth noting that in this situation, “analytics” is not definitive on what the best play was, and that this is often the case on close calls. Models can provide a framework, but when the call is this close, there is something to be said for relying on the gut feelings of coaches.
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Cleveland on Christmas
The Packers next face the Browns, who were ravaged by COVID this week, and who are just barely alive for the playoffs. It has been a disappointing season for Cleveland after they posted an 11-5 record in 2020, and actually managed to win a playoff game. They were thought to be major contenders entering 2021, but it just hasn’t worked out. In truth, they were a slightly fraudulent team last season and finished 2020 with a -11-point differential, indicating they should have been closer to .500 than 11-5. They currently have a -13-point differential, and more than anything, their record has snapped back to properly reflect the kind of team they are.
Cleveland’s primary issue is quarterback, where Baker Mayfield has been average-at-best. Cleveland uses a run-heavy offense and often appears to be afraid of their own quarterback, keeping Mayfield’s throws simple, and using rolling pockets to cut down on his reads. Cleveland has quite a bit of star power, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and they’ve been especially good since a week nine blowout loss to Cincinnati, but as long as their offense remains conservative, they will have trouble with high-powered teams like Green Bay.
