![Josh Jacobs rushes against the Seahawks, December 15, 2024 Josh Jacobs rushes against the Seahawks, December 15, 2024](https://shepherdexpress.com/downloads/67493/download/josh-jacobs-vs-seahawks-12.15.24.jpg?cb=f72cf92bca7ebf5721dfbb1a167817a8&w={width}&h={height})
Photo by Evan Siegle - packers.com
Josh Jacobs rushes against the Seahawks, December 15, 2024
Josh Jacobs rushes against the Seahawks, December 15, 2024
The last time the Packers won in Seattle, Aaron Rodgers was in his first year as a starter way back in 2008. Since then, it’s been nothing but misery including the Fail Mary and the disastrous 2014 NFC Championship game, but on Sunday they finally broke the streak in a 30-13 win over the Seahawks.
The star on offense was once again Josh Jacobs, who accounted for 136 total yards and a touchdown. Jacobs and the offensive line were unstoppable on the first drive of the game, as Jacobs accounted for 59 of 63 total yards on his own, culminating in a one-yard touchdown. Their second drive, which pushed the lead to 14, was almost as run-heavy as the first, with the exception of a 21-yard strike from Love to Jacobs briefly breaking up the power-display. Romeo Doubs capped off this display of force with one of his own, dragging in two defenders from the four-yard line for a 13-yard touchdown,
With a two-score lead banked, the defense was free to come after Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, sacking him three times and eventually knocking him from the game with a leg injury in the third quarter. Backup Sam Howell fared no better, going down another four times. The Packer pass rush came from all directions, as six different Packers recorded a sack, and only Kingsley Enagbare scoring more than one. Backup cornerback Carrington Valentine also recorded a crucial end zone interception of Smith in the second quarter to preserve Green Bay’s two-touchdown lead, and hopefully earned himself more playing time going forward if Jaire Alexander cannot return. Corner Eric Stokes tends to play over Valentine but hasn’t recorded a Pass Defended or Interception in three years. Valentine had two Passes Defended and a pick in this game.
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The breakout star of the game was rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who was forced into a larger role when starter Quay Walker was lost with an injury. Cooper was an absolute force, recording a sack, and interception, and leading the team in tackles. Most importantly, he is far better in pass coverage than Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, and Eric Wilson, and his ability to establish depth in the Packers’ zone disrupted the Seahawks middle passing game. Cooper may lack NFL polish, but he’s clearly the best linebacker on the team, and it’s not close. If the Packers are going to make noise in the playoffs, they need to drastically increase his snap count.
The Quietly Dominant Packers
Green Bay can clinch a playoff spot next week, but they are likely to finish third in the NFC North due to excellent seasons from the Vikings and Lion. However it’s worth noting that over the last half of the season, the Packers have been one of the best teams in football. While they lost to the Lions, Detroit has suffered a crushing injury every single week, most recently losing corners Khalil Dorsey and Carlton Davis, defensive lineman Alim McNeill, and running back David Montgomery in their loss to the Bills. Detroit has performed admirably this season as the best team in the league, all while injuries have mounted, but this will almost certainly be more than they can handle. And with the one truly dominant NFC team in rough shape, the door is open.
The advanced metric Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) assesses teams based on their play-by-play efficiency, and makes adjustments for the quality of their opposition and their pace of play. Raw stats can sometimes be deceiving, and statistics like DVOA can cut through some of the noise. For instance, the Seahawks entered the game this week with the third most passing yards in football, however no one would call them the third best passing offense in football, and per DOVA, their passing offense ranks just 18th. The Packers’ recent good play has pushed them all the way to third overall in DVOA, trailing only the Lions, and the hard-luck Ravens, and it’s important to be good in the specific ways measured by DVOA, because it’s incredibly difficult for teams outside of the top five in DVOA to win the Super Bowl.
Since 2015, only one team outside of the top five has done so (the 2018 New England Patriots who ranked seventh overall), and since 1985, there have only been five teams outside of the top 10 in DVOA to win it all. DVOA is also excellent in identifying which wild card teams happen to be juggernauts in waiting, and we may have such a situation with the Packers, who were also third in DVOA last time they won it all as a 10-6 wild card in 2010.
Green Bay is extremely run-heavy, and they play at a fairly slow pace, which means they never really light up the scoreboard, but they’ve scored over 30 in four consecutive games, and on a play-by-play basis, almost no one is better. Their defense has come around as well, and they’re now a solid top ten unit against the run and the pass. As Daniel Whelan and Brandon McManus have solidified the special teams unit, that old Achilles’ Heel is no longer an issue. Their window is open right now, and they will be a difficult matchup for any team in the playoffs.
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The Packers face the Saints on Monday Night next week and clinch a playoff spot with a victory. The Saints will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr, and likely without star running back Alvin Kamara. Assuming they take care of business, they will not have much to play for and can spend the final two weeks getting healthy.