Photo by Evan Siegle - packers.com
Packers-Raiders Oct. 9, 2023
The Packers offense vs. the Raiders, October 9, 2023
The Packer offense started the season on such a high note against a rebuilding Chicago Bears team, but it’s been a struggle since then. And while the Saints have an excellent defense, it’s not as if Green Bay has faced a particularly tough slate of opponents. The Bears did not have the benefit of any game tape on the new look LaFleur-Love offense, but the book on the Packers is now out there for everyone: if you take away the middle of the field, Love can’t hurt you.
Against the Broncos, the Packers have the perfect opportunity to adjust back. Denver has the NFL’s worst defense by a wide margin, with only corner Patrick Surtain playing at an NFL level. Denver was actually quite good last season under defensive coordinator Ejiro Eviro, but new head coach Sean Payton decided to bring in his own guy in Vance Joseph, late of the Arizona Cardinals. Eviro was quickly snatched up by the rebuilding Carolina Panthers where he has continued to impress, while the Broncos and Joseph have crashed hard. Joseph has had occasionally success as a DC in the past, but his style requires a level of talent that the Broncos just don’t have. Denver loves to play an attacking style, with a high volume of press man coverage, and single high safety looks, relying on Surtain to hold up without help.
It’s a high risk, high reward style that can excel with a strong secondary and a good pass rush, but injuries and attrition have robbed the Broncos of depth, and while edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper have nice numbers on paper, 6.5 of their 9 combined sacks have come against Washington’s Sam Howell and Chicago’s Justin Fields, by far the two most sack-prone quarterbacks in football. When Joseph’s preferred style starts to break down, it opens the door for easy deep looks for opposing quarterbacks, and even poor quarterbacks have feasted against Denver, while genuinely great offenses like Miami have put up absurdly high point totals. If the Packers don’t produce a solid offensive output in this game, there’s a good chance they never will again with Love under center.
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Packers Can Win
But even if the offense struggles, the Packers can still win this game. While quarterback Russell Wilson has had a bit of a resurgence with Sean Payton at the helm, the Bronco offense has still struggled to produce consistent results. Part of that is still on Wilson, who is getting sacked at an absurd 9.9% rate. Wilson has also thrown four picks and fumbled three times, often in disastrous ways. The biggest disappointment on offense is likely Jerry Jeudy, the highly regarded fourth year receiver out of Alabama. Jeudy was outstanding as a rookie and had something of a breakout last season averaging 14.5 yards per reception and just missing the 1,000-yard mark, but he’s been awful in 2023. Nagging injuries, and Payton’s scheme, have done him no favors, and with rookie Marvin Mims impressing in limited opportunities so far, Jeudy has mentioned been a popular trade deadline candidate.
The most key factor in any Packer game this season is the quality of the opposing rushing attack, and here, the Broncos may be able to exploit Green Bay’s most glaring weakness. No team is worse against the run than the Packers, and when they have stopped the run this year, it’s been because of offensive ineptitude, not defensive excellence. This may very well be a problem because Denver is a solid rushing team. Javonte Williams got off to a slow start, but he has been much better of late as Denver has faced some easier defenses, and his backup Jaleel McLaughlin has been positively explosive, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Denver also makes effective use of receiving back Samaje Perine, who is averaging 10.8 yards per reception.
The Packers have struggled in every game against a plus rushing attack, even when the opponent in question, like the Atlanta Falcons, could not pass effectively. Matt LaFleur should expect this game to turn into an offensive shootout, and plan accordingly. Denver is a poor team, but if you do not blow them away early and allow them to hang around, their rushing attack will become a major problem. The Packers’ best matchup is their pass rush against a quarterback who cannot help but take sacks. If Russell Wilson doesn’t have to throw the ball, the Packers risk suffering an embarrassing loss
