There is no shame in losing to the Steelers as they are one of the best teams in football, and one of the rare teams to have a top five offense and defense. The shame is in playing so well, and getting so close, but still having the season slip away. The Packers are now faced with the prospect of winning out, and while it’s not impossible to see them beating Tampa and Cleveland, the road is much rockier for the final three games.
Assigning Value
College football is loaded with terrible quarterbacks. NCAA teams deal with this in various ways, but my favorite is to emphasize power running with deep passing. For a bad quarterback with a strong arm the deep ball can be a godsend, especially if your running game can force the secondary to play up. Deep passes need not be as precise as receivers have an opportunity to adjust, and if a receiving crew is talented enough, they will win the majority of 50/50 balls. If I were running an offense with Brett Hundley, I would focus on the run with some run/pass option, and then let him routinely air it out deep. Hundley wasn’t great when making precision passes on Sunday, but he did have success downfield.
On his first touchdown pass, a 39-yard strike to Randall Cobb, no one covered Cobb, leaving him as wide open as a receiver can be. Hundley should get some credit for making a solid throw, and not missing the opportunity, but the defense handed this score to the Packers. Jamaal Williams would later score on a 55-yard screen pass, where Williams did the vast majority of the heavy lifting, including twisting 180 degrees to secure a ball that thrown behind him.
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Finally, Hundley’s third touchdown to Davante Adams was a thing of beauty, and Hundley hit him perfectly in stride. That said, Adams deserves the bulk of the credit for the score because his double move to get open deep embarrassed a Steeler defender, and provided Hundley with a high margin for error.
Those three passes accounted for 148 of Hundley’s 245 yards. On his other 28 dropbacks he threw for only 97 yards, with nine incompletions, while taking four sacks. It’s good that Hundley made the big plays when they were available, and Jordy Nelson didn’t do him any favors, but this wasn’t the breakthrough that many are making it out to be. Davante Adams was excellent, and Jamaal Williams was stellar as a receiver, but Hundley did not do anything that a replacement level quarterback couldn’t have done. That said, this should serve as a lesson on how to proceed. Williams is an adequate power runner and above average receiver, and the starting backs will return soon. Hundley has developed some chemistry with Adams, and they should exploit that relationship as much as possible.
Davante Adams continues to stand out in the absence of Rodgers. While production for every other receiver has plummeted, and Jordy Nelson is a complete non-factor, Adams is now a proven star, dominating defenses and making tough adjustments and catches look routine. He is a free agent at the end of the season, and losing him would put a damper on Aaron Rodgers return in 2018.
What Works, What Doesn’t
If I’ve learned anything this year it is that generating a consistent pass rush is far more important than generating sacks. Sack numbers can themselves be very misleading. Dom Capers has always schemed his way to pressure, but his blitz packages almost rule out the possibility of a consistent pass rush. Capers requires his defense to be versatile, and having a defense that can adjust from power to spread without making substitutions is a good thing, but it also has costs. The Capers pass rush is meant to be varied and unpredictable, but too often it’s slow developing, and loses effectiveness based on who is doing the rushing. Once the opposing team has picked up on the trick, they simply have to hold off players who are not true pass rushers, or alternatively, trap edge rushers inside on failed stunts and delayed blitzes.
This defense will generate some sacks, but it won’t provide consistent pressure, and too frequently, opposing quarterbacks have all day to throw. I’m not sure of the Packer pass rush as currently constituted could provide pressure in any scheme, but whether it’s lack of talent or lack of scheme, it’s a fundamental problem with the team. Roethlisberger too often threw from a completely clean pocket, allowing him to hit wide receiver Antonio Brown with amazing precision. Too often, Capers’ pass rush fails to force the issue on 3rd and long, and one more shutdown drive would have allowed the Packers to steal the game. They probably do need a talent infusion as well, but Nick Perry, Clay Matthews, and Ahmad Brooks should also be better than this.
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At least the defense managed to hold onto the ball when given the chance as Damarious Randall and Blake Martinez managed to pick off Ben Roethlisberger, and Morgan Burnett forced a fumble from Le’Veon Bell. The next two games feature opponents with careless quarterbacks, and the Packer defense should find success in this area. Next week they face Tampa Bay with backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, historically one of the most interception prone quarterbacks in the game. Tampa also features the worst defense the Packers have faced this season. Their playoff chances may be small, but they probably will survive at least one more week.
T.J. Watt
Wisconsin’s T.J. Watt was famously drafted one spot after the Packers traded out of round one. Instead they used their additional picks on Kevin King and Wisconsin’s Vince Biegel. It’s much too early to judge this trade in any meaningful way, and King has been playing through a severe shoulder injury for most of the season, but it was hard not to be impressed by Watt, who managed to sack Brett Hundley from ten yards downfield in the blink of an eye on this play.
Watt was especially impressive in coverage, and while King and Biegel may still develop into good players, Watt may already be there. Packer fans around my age love to talk about the pick of Terrell Buckley over Wisconsin corner Troy Vincent, and there is a good chance that Watt ends up as the modern equivalent of Vincent.
Finally
Let’s watch Buffalo receiver Zay Jones stand up in slow motion.
