If Green Bay can pull off one more victory, there is a chance they will activate Aaron Rodgers in good position for a playoff run. On the surface it appears that the Hundley-led Packers are primed to accomplish just that against the lowly Cleveland Browns, but unbeknownst to many, the Browns aren’t quite as lowly as they used to be, and believe it or not, present a very difficult matchup for the current Packer roster. Much like this week’s game against Tampa, the Packer defense will likely have to chip in a score or two, because the offense is going to be in deep trouble.
The Lucky Win
Tampa Bay is not a good team and it’s nice that the Packers won, but consider just how lucky they were to win it. Defensive lineman Dean Lowry had a touchdown literally handed to him by Jameis Winston.
Kyler Fackrell was untouched, and blocked a punt, and the running game behind Jamaal Williams was simply incredible, as Brett Hundley played one of his worst games as a pro. The Packers needed every break and every successful running play, and Williams and Aaron Jones single-handedly marched down the field for the game winning TD in overtime.
Hundley started the game fine, but near the end of their first drive he missed a wide-open Geronimo Allison for the easiest touchdown you will ever see, and the team had to settle for a field goal.
Starting with that play, Hundley got progressively worse, and in the second half and overtime he was just seven of 13 for 36 yards to go along with two sacks. The Tampa Bay pass defense is awful, entering the game ranked 30th in the league, and his lack of success against them is just another data point supporting the notion that Hundley is simply not an NFL quarterback.
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The Browns are actually slightly better against the pass, ranking 27th, but the big issue for the Packers is that Cleveland is excellent against the run, ranking 2nd.
Williams and Jones will be hard pressed to repeat their success against Tampa’s 20th-ranked unit, and if the Packers cannot run effectively it’s hard to imagine them scoring any points. Since Myles Garrett has gotten healthy the Cleveland pass rush has improved along with the already stout run defense, bolstering an impressive young line. If the Packers are stymied on the ground, they may be tempted to let Hundley air it out, but that will like result in plenty of sacks and picks. Cleveland is vulnerable to a competent passing offense but the Packer passing offense will struggle. Fortunately, the Browns’ offense is nearly as hopeless as the Packers’.
Let the Browns Beat the Browns
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix has been awful for over a season as this point. Clinton-Dix has regressed, but he also suffers due to his overly conservative role in the Dom Capers defense as the last line of defense. He often lines up so far off the line of scrimmage that he is not even visible on broadcast, and he is extremely tentative breaking on the ball or hitting people. Clinton-Dix built a reputation as a bit of a ballhawk due to a five-interception effort last season, but almost all of those picks were what I call “center field picks.” He didn’t break on the ball, or offer tight coverage, merely camped under horribly overthrown balls. They are some of the easiest interceptions a player will ever have.
Normally this style of play makes Clinton-Dix a liability, however against the Browns and DeShone Kizer, it’s likely to get you a pick or two. Kizer has been awful as passer, especially on deep balls, and if the Packer pass rush can contain him and apply some pressure, the defense will have a good chance to bail out the offense again.
One x-factor is the recent addition of the extremely troubled Josh Gordon, fresh off suspension. Gordon was impressive in his first game back, and he is as talented as any player in the league. With some rust off, he could be a game-changer, as could Cleveland’s strong rushing attack led by Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson.
Cleveland is an 0-12 laughingstock, but they’re coming off one of their better games of the season, and they are no longer terrible in every phase of the game, and in many areas they are superior to the Packers. Green Bay will likely be favored, but no one should be looking past this game. If I were McCarthy, I would lean heavily on the run, and introduce more option plays for Hundley. When he’s been allowed to run, he has been effective.
Cleveland may stop them if they go run-heavy, but they likely won’t beat themselves in doing so, and the Browns likely will. If McCarthy is tempted to exploit the weak Cleveland pass defense, he’s inviting trouble. At this point, Hundley is capable of losing to anyone.
