The Packers Remain Super Bowl Contenders Thanks to Creativity at the Receiver Position

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Rasul Douglas

Rasul Douglas

As the Packers get set to kick off their 2022 season, all of the basics for another championship run are still present. Their all-world quarterback is back with a new contract extension, for at least one more season. Both David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins have been activated off of the PUP list after torn ACLs and should anchor one of the best offensive lines in the league. And with a healthy Jaire Alexander returning to join Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes, Adrian Amos, and Darnell Savage in the secondary, the defense has the potential to be the best it’s been since 2010 when the Packers won their last Super Bowl.

While the Packers do look primed for a deep run, there are a few areas where they’ll need a mixture of luck, and quick development to remain truly elite. The biggest hole is, of course, at wide receiver where Davante Adams left as a free agent to join the Raiders and his college quarterback Derek Carr. Adams is one of the top five receivers in football, and in 2021 led all receivers in the percentage of his team’s targets, meaning no receiver was used more frequently. Replacing Adams would be difficult for any team, but it will be even more so for Green Bay as they had no heir apparent in waiting. In fact, arguably their second most dangerous receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, also left for the Kansas City Chiefs.

It’s true that no individual can fill Adams’ shoes, and so the Packers have taken a multi-faceted approach, adding to the position through promotion, free agency, and using substantial draft capital. The one significant holdover from last season is Allen Lazard, who figures to see his role expand. Lazard has been an extremely useful role player in his career with Green Bay, and always ranks highly on Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) statistic, which measures how efficient someone is on a per play basis. Lazard has an almost supernatural ability to get to the sticks, and almost no receiver converts first downs (or red zone touchdowns) at a higher rate. The question is whether he loses some of that efficiency as his target share increases.

While Randall Cobb also returns, he’s definitely lost a step at this point in his career and isn’t a player you can count on as a primary target. Relying solely on Cobb and Lazard, would be risky, and so the team also brought in veteran Sammy Watkins from the Chiefs. Watkins is a former first round draft pick, but he has been one of the least consistent receivers in the league during his tenure, mixing extended bouts of ineffectiveness with frequent injuries. This is likely Watkins’ last chance to prove he can be something other than a role player, and the LaFleur system is a good fit for his skillset as an outside deep threat who excels as a blocker.

Rounding out the revamped corps will be rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, in addition to second year slot receiver Amari Rodgers. Doubs has been the talk of camp with his crisp routes and surprising speed. His blocking is a work in progress, but Doubs looks like a steal as a fourth rounder. Christian Watson has been banged up throughout camp and didn’t appear in any preseason games, but he’ll likely serve as a situational deep threat while he learns the playbooks. Watson is among the most athletic receivers ever to play the game, but he is raw, and his floor is as low as his ceiling is high. Finally, Rodgers suffered through a disappointing rookie campaign, but the former third rounder reported to camp down about 10 pounds, and looked noticeably quicker as a result.

As a unit, the Packer receivers are a bit underrated, as Lazard and Watkins provide a solid floor, while the rookies and Rodgers provide plenty of projectability. Green Bay has struggled with receivers in the draft since Ted Thompson was in his prime as GM, but Doubs already appears to be a home run. If Watson can turn himself into well-rounded outside player, the offense shouldn’t miss a beat.

As to the rest of the offense, David Bakhtiari is finally participating in team drills after missing some of 2020 and nearly all of 2021 recovering from a torn ACL. He’s joined by Elgton Jenkins, who is recovering from an ACL tear of his own but seems likely to rejoin the starting lineup early in the season, if not week one.

As long as at least one of the two star tackles can remain healthy, the Packers should have no issues protecting Aaron Rodgers, as their depth across all other line positions is outstanding. Starters Jon Runyan Jr. and Josh Meyers are well above average, and rookie Zach Tom is ready to step in should incumbent Royce Newman struggle.

Top Running Backs

Running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are two of the NFL’s best running backs and should continue to rip off close to five years a carry while also providing good production as receivers. While Jones gets most of the attention as a pass catcher, Dillon was actually more efficient last season, and his above average hands should keep him on the field for more third downs going forward.

Aaron Rodgers provides a reliable floor for offense as we saw at the end of the Mike McCarthy era. The real question is all about how quickly the rookie receivers can develop and gain his trust as real weapons. A team led by Allen Lazard and Sammy Watkins can be good. To be great, they’ll likely need either Watson or Doubs to take over one of the outside spots.

Of course, if the defense can stay healthy, being just “good” on offense may be good enough.

Star Defense

The defense has stars at virtually every position, however, depth is sorely lacking in several key areas, and health will be the biggest determining factor in how far this team can go. In the secondary, you won’t find a better trio of corners than Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, and Eric Stokes, but if any of the starters miss any time, it will be a significant downgrade to second-year slot corner Shemar Jean-Charles, or special teamer Keisean Nixon. The safety position is even shallower, with Adrian Amos returning as the only truly reliable player at the position. This will be Darnell Savage’s fourth year with the team, and while he’s shown flashes of greatness in the past, he remains wildly inconsistent. There are no prospects waiting in the wings, and if Savage can’t take a step forward, the safety spot will be a significant weakness all year. Adrian Amos is easily the most important player on the Packer defense. An injury to Amos would be catastrophic.

Finally, the edge rusher position is one of their strongest with Rashan Gary already established as one of the best pass rushers in the league, flanked by the reliable Preston Smith on the other side. Should either go down for an extended period, depth again would be an issue, with only rookie JJ Enagbare showing any signs of providing a reliable rush in the preseason. Enagbare was an excellent college player, trailing only first overall pick Aidan Hutchinson in pressure rate last season, but he’s an average athlete, which may hold him back in the NFL.

The Packers are strong up the middle and should be far better against the run than they’ve been in at least a decade. Kenny Clark anchors a strong defensive line with veteran run-stopper Jarran Reed, first rounder Devonte Wyatt out of Georgia, and the perennial underrated Dean Lowry. Behind them, linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and first rounder Quay Walker will clean up any and all messes. Walker may only be a rookie, but he has already demonstrated advanced skills as a coverage linebacker with speed and power unprecedented on modern Packer teams.

Overall, it’s a strong unit with potential to be a top five overall defense if they can stay healthy, and health will likely be the determining factor as to whether they’re legitimate Super Bowl contenders, or merely very good.

Special Teams

The Packers’ lack of depth at key positions on defense is a factor of a tight cap, as well as increased focus on special teams under new special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia, where the team as opted for a few coverage aces over more traditional backups. Edge backups Tipa Galeai and Jonathan Garvin, Safety backups Tariq Carpenter and Dallin Leavitt, and linebacker backup Isaiah McDuffie should bring more reliable blocking and coverage to the special teams unit and ensure that we see far fewer of the disastrous plagued that plagued the Packers last year.

In addition to adding and retaining a few blocker and gunner specialists, the Packers upgraded the punt unit by signing veteran punter Pat O’Donnell from Chicago. O’Donnell isn’t flashy, but he does have an above average leg, and he does all the little things that the Packers failed to execute on last year. His cold weather experience should also be helpful as the season moves towards December and January.

Finally, Mason Crosby will return as placekicker for at least one more season, though he did spend all of training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, and if he does suffer any drop in effectiveness, the end may come quickly.