Will Aaron Rodgers be back? The team has been teasing his return for weeks, having him throw the ball around during warm-ups and activating him for practice. Clay Matthews even stated that they should not have put him on IR. The team is signaling optimism, but at this point it is still unclear if he is actually cleared to come back, or will be any time soon. If the Packers want to have any chance at the playoffs they will absolutely need him, because Brett Hundley is almost certainly not beating an above average opponent. Hundley has barely beaten some of the NFL’s worst, and the remaining schedule is a gauntlet of good NFC teams. Even if Rodgers does return, running the table against Carolina, Detroit and Minnesota is no easy task.
Secondary Déjà Vu
Last season a very good Packer team was unable to get past Atlanta because their secondary was in complete shambles, mostly due to injury, and the loss of Sam Shields in particular. This season, the Packers may get Rodgers back, but they’ve lost Kevin King to a season-ending shoulder injury, and Davon House is battling one of his own. Morgan Burnett was forced to play corner against Cleveland, and outside of Damarious Randall, everyone is either out of position, waiver wire fodder, or Josh Jones. The continued struggles of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are not helping the situation, and while he did have a pick, (and a pretty good one),
he is still off the ball far too often.
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Clay Matthews can fix a lot of problems. Coming off his second outstanding game in a row, Matthews was everywhere against Kizer and the Browns, critically forcing an overtime interception that led directly to Packer victory.
While much of the Packer pass rush was a no-show against Kizer, Matthews has put a nice run together, and he will need to maintain that level of play, and stay healthy, for the defense to tread water.
The Packers won’t just need Rodgers to be back, they will need him to be great, and if the coaching staff can integrate the lessons of the brief Hundley era with Rodgers’ talent there is every possibility that may happen. The staff has had time to learn a few important lessons without Rodgers, and if they synthesize what has worked with Hundley with Rodgers ability to make every read and every throw, they may blow the doors off of people.
When we last left Rodgers, the offensive line was in shambles and struggling. While it is not back to the all-world form of 2016, it has drastically improved over the past several weeks, and Rodgers can expect to have time to throw. Against Atlanta in week two, the unheralded Kyle Murphy and Justin McCray started at the tackle positions. With David Bakhtiari healthy and Jason Spriggs rapidly improving, the line is as healthy as it will be for the remainder of the season. He can also expect the support of a dominant running attack, as Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones provide the team with truly dynamic options out of the backfield, running with power, speed, and chipping in very good receiving skills. Before he was hurt, Rodgers was mostly stuck with an injured and ineffective Ty Montgomery, now on IR. Going forward, the offense can use everyone without any constraints. Most importantly, it is now clear that Davante Adams is by far the best receiver on the team, and when Rodgers returns, it is Adams who should consistently lead the team in targets.
With Aaron Rodgers:
59% catch percentage, 12.39 yards per reception, 7.31 yards per target.
With Brett Hundley:
66% catch percentage 11.8 yards per reception, 7.5 yards per target.
It’s always difficult to tell whether a receiver is good independent of a good quarterback. In the case of Jordy Nelson it is clear that he is extremely dependent on Rodgers. Adams is a different story entirely. He has excelled in all phases with Hundley behind center, serving as a security blanket on short-to-medium passes, and serving as the only credible Packer deep threat. Adams has put on a clinic of embarrassing defensive backs, hauling in poorly thrown balls, and keeping drives alive. No Packer is more dangerous with the ball in his hands, and Rodgers should be better at loading him up with targets. If Rodgers’ return can bring Nelson back while taking advantage of Adams while defenses are forced to go big to stop Jamaal Williams, this team can put up a ton of points.
Carolina
The Panthers pose an interesting challenge and they are a good bet to derail the Packer playoff hopes. Cam Newton is a mobile quarterback willing to punish you with his legs, and the Panther receivers are more than capable of winning one-on-one matchups with a depleted Packer secondary. The defense is well balanced, and stout against both the run and the pass. Given the state of the defense it’s going to take a heroic effort on offense to win, and that’s likely to require some of Rodgers’ magic.
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Finally, the Cleveland coaching staff was not happy with their special teams play.
