When the Packers Face the Rams, It's Strength on Strength

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Photo Credit: Evan Siegle

If the Packers eventually make it to the Super Bowl, they will have run quite the gauntlet to do so. The remaining NFC teams (aside from Green Bay) all have top-5 defenses according to both advanced metrics like DVOA, and conventional metrics like points allowed. The Los Angeles Rams are the best of that elite group, having allowed the fewest points in the league, and ranking first by Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA, which considers recent performance more heavily. Putting up points on the Rams is extremely difficult, as the Seahawks found out in the Wild Card round.

When Green Bay Has the Ball

The Packers have the best offense in the NFC, but they have, on occasion, run into trouble. Their worst game of the season came against the Buccaneers in week 6 where Aaron Rodgers completed under 50% of his passes and threw an uncharacteristic pick-6. Tampa accomplished this through a relentless pass rush, and a genuinely brilliant and confusing scheme created by defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. 

The Rams have a similar talent level on defense anchored by defensive tackle Aaron Donald and corner Jalen Ramsey, and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is every bit as good as Bowles at disguising his pass rush and coverage concepts. 

Staley is one of a new brand of coordinators who really understands the marriage of pass rush and coverage. Donald, and former Bears edge rusher Leonard Floyd are more than capable of creating a strong pass rush without blitzing, and on any given play, any Ram player could be dropping into coverage. That deception slows down the ability of a quarterback to make a quick read, and once an opposing quarterback starts to doubt his reads, the game is over. 

Going back to the Tampa game, Green Bay led the game 10-0 at the start of the second quarter. On a 3rd and ten pass, Rodgers was completely fooled by Tampa’s coverage as what appeared to be a Cover-0 blitz morphed into a cover-2 shell at the last minute, and Rodgers was duped into a pick-6. Prior to that throw, Rodgers moved the ball easily and wasn’t sacked. After that, Rodgers became exceedingly cautious, stopped getting the ball out quickly, and was sacked 4 times.

It’s probably a good thing that the Packers have that game under their belt because they now have the opportunity to learn from it. They can also learn some lessons from Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers, who swept the Rams this year despite having no healthy players, and who run a structurally similar offense to the Packers. 

While the Rams run a defense heavy on deception, the Green Bay offense is just as capable of fooling the opposition. Once Rodgers got in trouble against Tampa, the Packers started running most of their offense out of shotgun and cut down on pre-snap motion. Rodgers (and LaFleur) will often retreat to shotgun when things go poorly, but against the Rams it’s a bad idea.

San Francisco ran some shotgun, especially on 3rd down, but they ran the bulk of their early offense from under center, and it paid huge dividends. The 49ers use frequent pre-snap motion, and have a jet-sweep option on many plays. This allows their quarterbacks (Jimmy Garoppolo and Nick Mullens each faced LA once) to quickly identify whether they are facing man or zone, and gets the defense moving in a specific, predictable direction, allowing counteraction against the grain. It’s important to confuse, and dictate to the Rams, and to avoid reacting to them.

L.A. was the best team in the league against #2 receivers. Jalen Ramsey is probably the best corner in the game, which leads to the questions of why they are not the best team against #1 receivers. The reason is that Ramsey doesn’t tend to shadow. He can generally be found on the right side of the formation, and smart teams tend to sacrifice their second-best receiver to make him work. Many have been looking forward to an Adams-Ramsey matchup, but I’m not sure how much of that we will see. I suspect that Adams will frequently work out of the slot where he will more often face Darious Williams. Williams is a good corner and had an impressive pick-6 of Russell Wilson in the last round, however he can be the weak link in one-on-one matchups. 

Generally speaking, the short-to-intermediate middle of the field is the weak underbelly of the Rams’ defense. Successful teams, including the 49ers, managed to diagnose a zone defense, and run receivers away from Ramsey on crossers, exploiting the middle. Tight end George Kittle was especially successful for San Francisco, and don’t be surprised to see Robert Tonyan (and perhaps Allen Lazard) doing damage out of heavy formations. It is important to run effectively to prevent the Rams’ inside linebackers from getting too deep a drop, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that you can’t run enough play-action against them. That said, the Rams are exceedingly good against the run, and running too much will put the Packers in tough down-and-distance situations. 

Keeping Aaron Rodgers unharmed is really the key. While this will be difficult without David Bakhtiari, don’t be surprised if the recently signed Jared Veldheer plays more than you think. Adding Veldheer to the mix gives Green Bay a line full of tackles, and having inside players with tackle instincts and agility is perfect for countering the Rams pass rush. Aaron Donald did suffer torn rib cartilage against Seattle, and while he is expected to play, he may be limited. If Green Bay can keep Aaron Rodgers clean, use play-action effectively, and not get away from their deception game, passing out of heavy personnel, they should score enough to win. Fortunately, the Packers’ defense has a much easier task in front of them.

When Los Angeles Has the Ball

If there is a corner in the league better than Jalen Ramsey, it may be Jaire Alexander, and that’s going to be a big problem for Los Angeles. The Rams have exactly one good pass-catcher in slot receiver Cooper Kupp. When Kupp is on the field their passing game is about average. When he’s not, they are absolutely awful. Kupp suffered a bizarre non-contact injury against Seattle that the Rams are calling a contusion. He’s expected to play, but if he’s limited, they will have trouble moving the ball. Outside receivers Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds are two of the worst receivers in football.

That’s not entirely fair, as most receivers are only as good as their quarterbacks, and the Rams’ quarterbacks are terrible. Jared Goff is the best quarterback on the team, but he recently broke his thumb, and when he was forced to play against Seattle, he was clearly a shell of himself. Their normal backup, John Wolford was seriously injured on a tackle by defensive back Jamal Adams and was rushed to the hospital. As a result, the Packers are likely to face one-handed Jason Goff, or 3rd stringer Blake Bortles. 

As a result, the Rams will likely try to lean on their rushing attack, anchored by rookie Cam Akers, a 2nd round pick chosen just a few spots ahead of Packer rookie AJ Dillon. The Rams were the 4th best running team in football, and if they get ahead they may be able to ride Akers to victory, however the Packers have shown that they can stop opposing running attacks when the want to, as they did against Derrick Henry and the Titans, and the addition of Damon “Snacks” Harrison should prevent any back from dominating the game.

Sean McVay has been lauded as an offensive genius for years, but while the Rams make frequent use of pre-snap motion and play action, they’re just not as dangerous without elite personnel. McVay’s offense runs almost exclusively out of “11” personnel (3 receivers, 1 RB, 1 TE), and as a result, it’s become more predictable. Without a deep threat, corners and safeties can cheat up, play aggressive, and take the ball away. Goff threw 13 interceptions this season despite an extremely conservative passing attack, and if you can put the Rams into 3rd-and-long situations consistently, he will give you a chance. 

The Rams do have a strong offensive line and it can be tough for a pass rush to get to Goff. The quick, conservative passing game is built to avoid sacks and hits to Goff, and essentially take the pass rush out of the equation, but it’s important for the Smiths and Rashan Gary to maintain their intensity. Speeding up Goff’s (or Bortles’) clocks, even a little, can be the difference between a successful pass and a takeaway. 

While the Rams’ defense is truly great, the Packers should be able to put enough points on the board to win this. The Rams are beat up on offense, and every improvement the Packer defense made over the second half of the season should help here. If the defense plays like they can, and doesn’t lay an egg, the Packers should find themselves hosting the NFC Championship Game.