With Rodgers Out, How Good Can the Packers Be?

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Photo Credit: Mike Morbeck (Flickr CC)

There is no way to sugarcoat the loss of Aaron Rodgers. The simple fact is that Rodgers is the league’s single best player at its most important position, and while quarterback isn’t everything, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Rodgers is worth something like six wins or more all by himself. With Rodgers the Packers are favorites for a first round bye in the playoffs, and without him they fall to a level where the best they can hope for is to limp in as a wild card while catching lightning in a bottle with Hundley. The last time Rodgers broke a collarbone that is exactly what they did, with an enormous assist from the rest of their division. This time I suspect the NFC North is slightly more competent, and the challenge will be greater. Fortunately the team has better quarterbacking options than last time, where the combination of Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien, and yes, even Matt Flynn, proved disastrous.

How good is Brett Hundley?

At this stage of his career it’s very difficult to tell exactly what the Packers may or may not have in Hundley, and I would not put too much stock into his struggles against a very good Viking defense. Viking head coach and defensive guru Mike Zimmer is one of the best in the business, and he even outsmarts Aaron Rodgers on occasion. It’s completely unreasonable to expect much of any backup in this situation, especially given the state of the Packer offensive line, which lost David Bakhtiari after he reaggravated his hamstring, Bryan Bulaga, who suffered a concussion, and Lane Taylor, who suffered a bevy of leg injuries.

After losing Rodgers, McCarthy called a very conservative offensive game, running on early downs and giving Hundley short, one-read throws. This is common practice league-wide when backups enter games, but it often does the backup a disservice as the defense also knows exactly what is happening. Hundley threw three picks, and while at least one was on him for staring down his receiver, all were varying degrees of fluky.

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Given an entire week to prepare for a much softer defense in the form of the New Orleans Saints we may see an entirely different player, and next week will probably tell us more about him than all of his preseason tape combined, but based on the limited sample we do have I suspect Hundley is an average quarterback with some room for growth. He’s a physical specimen with a good arm, but his preseason tape also reveals a few flaws that are probably still with him, one of which is problematic for the immediate future.

Mike Zimmer doesn’t blitz much, but once Hundley entered the game, Zimmer brought extra pressure frequently and effectively. This is generally a good strategy against inexperienced quarterbacks who haven’t adjusted to NFL speed and who don’t have the instincts to hit hot routes, but it has been a very good strategy against Hundley specifically. When Hundley is pressured he often reacts poorly. Whereas a seasoned veteran like Rodgers will sense an edge rusher and step up into the pocket, Hundley often rolls outside, or retreats backwards, leading to sacks or awkward throws.

When he does step up he can be very effective, and his touchdown pass to Davante Adams was an example of what he could be capable of if he develops better instincts. Hundley also loves to bail out to his right, sometimes prematurely. Fortunately, he has shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield, and throw accurately on the move.

The Packer line, as it has been every week this season, is likely to be banged up again which means the offense is likely to be conservative in order to protect Hundley. Expect a rash of quick throws, screens and timing routes, and don’t expect much downfield. This strategy, bolstered by a strong running game, can be effective against the Saints who have actually been solid defending down the field, but have struggled with tight ends and receiving backs. Most importantly, the Saints can be run on, and Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery should have an easier time of it.

While Hundley struggled with pressure, he also did show why the Packers believe in him. When he had clean pockets or escaped pressure, he threw accurately, on time and with authority. He was especially adept at hitting receivers outside the numbers, and his back shoulder throw to Jordy Nelson was a thing of beauty.

The offense isn’t going to be as productive as it was with Rodgers no matter what, but it also doesn’t have to be. Hundley is more than capable of making smart NFL throws and keeping them in games. The key for the Packers will be everything else.

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Line and Secondary

Just as the offensive tackles were both finally playing together, David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga suffered disappointing setbacks, and both injuries are likely to linger into next week and beyond. Bulaga suffered a concussion and will have to clear the protocol before he returns, while Bakhtiari reinjured his hamstring. To avoid further complications, the team will have to be cautious with their left tackle, as pushing him into service too early just blew up in their face. Hopefully Lane Taylor can make a quick recovery, but his status is still uncertain.

While the line may make things dicey for the new quarterback, the real issue in the post-Rodgers era is the defense. Without Kevin King, Davon House and Morgan Burnett, the secondary was already severely undermanned, but Quinten Rollins was also forced to leave the game with a season-ending achilles injury, and even reserves like Lenzy Pipkins were playing hurt. The front seven is relatively healthy and playing quite well, but until King and Burnett return, the team will be extremely vulnerable to quarterbacks of the caliber of Drew Brees. If both can return, the Packer defense is capable of playing well enough to support a Hundley-led offense.

Tidbits

1. The hit that broke Aaron’s collarbone was not technically illegal, but it was absolutely dirty. Anthony Barr finished the late hit on Rodgers by driving him into the ground, and the only reason to do so is the chance that injury will result. It was a dirty play by a dirty player.
2. Taysom Hill looked good in preseason mop-up duty for the Packers, but they lost him to the Saints when they tried to sneak him onto the practice squad. Had Hill cleared waivers there is little chance that Joe Callahan would still be with the team. Don’t be surprised if the Packers attempt to pry him away from New Orleans after the game.
3. Lenzy Pipkins actually played a great game in the secondary for Green Bay, and should see a lot more time with Quinten Rollins now out for the year.
4. Martellus Bennett played one of the worst games of football I’ve ever seen. He has been a huge disappointment as a free agent signing.