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To the cynical, “American intelligence” is an oxymoron, given theapparent failure of the CIA and other agencies to assess the weakness of theSoviet Union, the probable outcome of Vietnam, the likelihood of 911.Onetime CIA analyst and Columbiainternational politics professor Robert Jervis examines two failures thatcontinue to resonate, the fall of the Shah and Saddam’s phantom weapons of massdestruction. He underlines the obvious limitations of a nation whose diplomatsand spies have limited language skills and tend to privilege English-speaking,Westernized elites. And, of course, “what people saw in the evidence wasstrongly influenced by their expectations and needs.”
Portions of Why Intelligence Failsare drawn from declassified assessments made by the author and others in theaftermath of failures in Iranand Iraq,shedding some light on the thought at work in the agencies. As for the CIA’srole in torture, murder and overthrowing foreign governments, Jervis makes thepoint that the CIA seldom acts on its own volition. Elected leaders make thepolicy and should shoulder the responsibility.
