Tyrone Hill was ranked as the tenth-best prospect in all of baseball in 1992. But trading him would have been no loss for the Brewers.
As the trade deadline approaches, the Brewers are already the subject of blockbuster trade rumors. The consensus opinion is that in order to land a big-name player—Jacob deGrom and Manny Machado are the two biggest and have both been rumored to be Brewers targets—their offering would need to be headlined by the top two prospects in the system—infielder Keston Hiura and pitcher Corbin Burnes.
Hiura and Burnes were ranked as the 47th and 74th best prospects in baseball by Baseball America before the season and are the last two players from the list in the Brewers system (Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison also ranked, but were sent to Miami in the Christian Yelich deal).
There is a bit of a fetish for prospect rankings among baseball fans. It’s not hard to understand why. Translating minor league numbers to potential Major League success is a difficult task for the lay fan and the neatness of a ranked list compiled by experts is such an attractive alternative that it overshadows the fact that even expert grading of prospects is a notoriously hit-and-miss science.
So what is a Top 100 Prospect really worth? Taking a look back in Brewers history can provide a few answers. According to the Baseball America Top 100 Prospects list, which was inaugurated in 1990, the Brewers have had 50 different Top 100 Prospects over the past 28 years.
Overall, the chances of a Top 100 Brewer making the major leagues are very good. Not counting seven prospects from recent years who are still working towards the Majors, 39 of 43 Top 100 players have reached the majors. At the Major League level, those players have been contributors, averaging over 8 career WAR (per Baseball Reference) and 6 WAR in a Brewers uniform. The Top 100 list has produced 10 Brewers All-Stars, with two others (Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress) possible 2018 All-Stars.
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But true impact Brewers—those who would be badly missed if traded before reaching the Bigs – are still pretty rare on the Top 100 list. Only three players—Ryan Braun, Ben Sheets, and Geoff Jenkins—totaled more than 17 career WAR in Milwaukee and their careers account for 40% of the Top 100ers’ total WAR output with the team. Twenty of the 50 Top 100 Brewers (ignoring those still active with the team) contributed less than two WAR or failed to make the Majors.
Nick Neugebauer was one of just ten Brewers to rank as a Top 20 prospect, ranking 17th in 2002. He made 14 career starts for the Brewers, walking nearly as many as he struck out. Ty Hill ranked as the 10th best Prospect in 1992 and also made the Top 100 list in 1993 and 1994. Hill never made it past A ball. Narciso Elvira (23rd in 1990), Antone Williamson (64th in 1995), Duane Singleton (69th in 1992), and Brad Nelson (23rd in 2003) all finished with sub-zero career WAR for the Brewers. Historically, a Top 100 Brewers is about twice as likely to turn out a bust than an All Star.
Of course, it has only been in the past decade or so that the Brewers have had to fret about trading Top 100 players. The first Baseball America Top 100 player the Brewers traded was pitcher Will Inman, dealt to San Diego in 2007 for Scott Linebrink while ranked 91st. They sent #23 prospect Matt LaPorta to Cleveland in the CC Sabthia deal the following year. In their pitching splurge before the 2011 season, they traded away Brett Lawrie (#59), Alcides Escobar (#12) and Jeremy Jeffress (#100). Of those, Lawrie and Escobar totaled about 22 WAR post-trade, while Inman and LaPorta were busts (Jeffress, of course, would return twice to Milwaukee and contribute in both stints).
Oddly enough, the Brewers have actually surrendered more value in prospects swaps by players who were did not rank among the Top 100. Lorenzo Cain never ranked, but ran up over 25 WAR with the Royals post-trade. Mitch Haniger was a fringe prospect when he was sent to Arizona for Gerardo Parra in 2014. He has since blossomed as a slugger for the Mariners. Michael Brantley was the player-to-be-named in the Sabathia deal and is now in his tenth season with the Indians, having contributed nearly 20 WAR. Nelson Cruz never ranked and has hit 344 home runs, including 21 this season, since the Brewers traded him to Texas in 2005. Indeed, many stars emerge after being passed over by the Top 100. John Jaha, Jeff Cirillo, Scott Podsednik, Jonathan Lucroy, Scooter Gennett, and Khris Davis never ranked and still contributed to the Brewers and other clubs.
There are some interesting items in this deep-dive into the Baseball America Top 100, but the overall lessons are not really surprising. Sometimes top prospects bust, sometimes marginal guys emerge as stars. Trading prospects is risky, but more often than not, a Top 100 player will not find prolonged success in the Majors. What this means for the Brewers as the deadline approaches remains to be seen. But fans should keep in mind that prospects rankings are just numbers… and not particularly significant numbers in the long view.
Stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com
