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Following a recent trend, many Major League Baseball teams are waiting until the last minute to make additions to their rosters for the 2021 season. In what’s becoming a more recent trend, however, the teams that are adding are all outside the NL Central.
The National League is shaping up to have some of the game’s most exciting storylines this summer. The Padres have added former Cy Young winner Blake Snell, former Cubs ace Yu Darvish and top import Ha-seong Kim. Their improvements to an already-contending squad give the NL West two teams projected to win 98 games in Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs’ ZiPS model, making them the best duo in that system’s nearly 20 year history.
Meanwhile, the Mets have made massive strides and expenditures in their first offseason under new ownership, setting the stage for an NL East where everyone has reason to believe they can compete. The NL Central, meanwhile, seems to be transitioning from one of baseball’s strongest divisions into the sport’s flyover country.
As recently as 2016 and 2017 it looked like opportunities to win the Central were going to be few and far between. The Cardinals were perennial contenders; their “down” years had seen them win 83 and 86 games. The Cubs were coming off a World Series win and appeared poised to build a dynasty. Even the Reds and Pirates, downtrodden as they were at the time, were accumulating young talent and seemed unlikely to stay in the basement.
Budget Trimming
Since then, each of those teams has taken a step back and, in most cases, trimmed their budget. Last winter the Cubs reportedly needed to cut payroll to even be able to add a free agent reliever, and this winter they dealt Darvish for salary relief and may also move Kris Bryant. The Cardinals’ only major additions last winter were Korean import Kwang-hyun Kim and backup catcher Matt Wieters. This year they let second baseman Kolten Wong walk and have done nothing to replace him. The Reds were surprise players on last winter’s free agent market but have since reversed course and traded closer Raisel Iglesias for salary relief. Even the Pirates, who already had one of the game’s lowest payrolls and weakest rosters, dealt first baseman Josh Bell instead of paying him in arbitration.
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As such, a division that seemed like one of baseball’s toughest just a few years ago now has all five teams projected to finish below .500 in FanGraphs’ Depth Charts. In a way, the division’s collective decision to step back provides limited incentive for any individual team to spend: No matter how bad these teams get, one of them will make the playoffs by being the best in a weak group.
By the same token, however, having a division where no one is “going for it” isn’t good for the present or future of the sport. It’s hard to imagine fans getting excited to watch also-ran NL Central teams face each other dozens of times this summer while the league’s contenders only visit their cities once each. Opting not to spend is an especially bad look for some of the game’s highest revenue franchises, like the Cubs and Cardinals, and their large and frustrated fan bases.
There is still time for this trend to reverse itself, of course. Twelve of the first 15 and 24 of the first 27 names on MLB Trade Rumors’ list of the winter’s top free agents have yet to sign, so there’s plenty of work to be done before the season gets underway in about eleven weeks. Recent trends would suggest, however, that the once-mighty NL Central is poised once again to sit this one out.
