Betting on the Brewers

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Photo Credit: Kirsten Schmitt/Milwaukee Brewers

With Opening Day just a few days away, it’s time to make some predictions about the 2021 Milwaukee Brewers. For the fourth consecutive year I’ll do that with help from BetOnline, who has published a list of 15 proposition bets for the season ahead.

After an extremely successful 2019 season (12-6), the unpredictability of the 2020 season tripped me up a bit and I went 7-8 with two pushes in my guesses. Despite the challenges of projecting a 60-game season BetOnline did extremely well setting betting lines in 2020: Two of their 17 proposition bets (Ryan Braun’s home runs and Brett Anderson’s wins) landed squarely on the betting line and three others were extremely close: Keston Hiura finished with 13 home runs, compared to a betting line of 12.5, and 32 RBI as compared to a betting line of 34.5. Meanwhile, Josh Hader’s save in the Brewers’ final win of the season was his 13^th, pushing him over the line of 12.5.

Here are my predictions for this year’s 15 challenges:

Christian Yelich: .281 batting average, 34.5 home runs, 93.5 RBI and 19.5 stolen bases

Last year at this time Yelich’s betting line was a .315 batting average, a sign of just how much his 2020 performance skews these numbers. Yelich’s potential bounce back from a statistically poor season in 2020 is one of the biggest questions facing the Brewers this spring but, as I’ve written previously, his statistics don’t tell the complete story of his performance. Yelich hit .329 in 2019 and has never hit below .282 in a complete MLB season, so I’ll take the over.

The counting statistics are a little more challenging. Even while other aspects of his game took a step back in 2020, Yelich’s home run totals stayed on a normal pace. His 12 home runs across 60 games last season project out to about 32.5 over a 162-game campaign. In a small sample this spring he also seems to be hitting the ball hard enough, connecting for extra bases about once every five plate appearances. I’ll take the over here too.

RBI are complicated largely because of their dependence on context: Despite batting in a spot in the lineup where he’s supposed to come up with runners on base, Yelich had just 129 baserunners across his 247 plate appearances in 2020 while Baseball Reference estimates that the average MLB hitter would have had 151. Brewers leadoff hitters combined for a .299 OBP in 2020, fourth-worst in baseball and 35 points below league average. They’ve added some candidates to fill that role but it’s at best unclear if they’ve solved the problem, so I’ll take the under on RBI.

Then there’s the question of how often Yelich will run. Across his first two seasons as a Brewer Yelich found himself on first base after a walk, single or hit by pitch 358 times and he attempted 58 steals (16%). In 2020 he was on first 68 times and attempted to steal just six times (about 9%). He’s demonstrated a tendency to pick his spots well and steal in bunches, but 20 is a high bar to clear unless he’s going back to running more often. I’ll take the under, but it’s close.

Lorenzo Cain: 10.5 home runs

Home runs are a strange choice for a single statistic for Cain, as he has just 78 across eleven MLB seasons and they’ve never been a big part of his game. He hit 10 in 2018 and 11 in 2019 before opting out of the 2020 season early. I’ll take the under here for a pair of reasons: First, it’s unclear how Cain’s offensive game will bounce back after a difficult offensive season in 2019 and a year off in 2020. Second, it seems unlikely Cain will rack up 600+ plate appearances this season (as he did in 2018 and 2019) given the Brewers’ outfield depth.

Keston Hiura: .257 batting average, 29.5 home runs, 83.5 RBI

That’s a 45 point drop in batting average from Hiura’s betting line in 2020 (.302), a clear indication of just how far his stock fell after he struggled with strikeouts and batted .212 with a .297 on-base percentage last season. He set expectations extremely high for himself after a huge rookie season in 2019, but then struggled to make contact (85 strikeouts in 217 at bats) and had some bad luck when he did, batting just .273 on balls in play. If either of those issues correct themselves Hiura should find himself easily back over that .257 line.

Hiura’s 13 home runs in 2020 project out to about 35 over 162 games, but that raises a pair of questions: First, will he sacrifice any power in an effort to put the ball in play more often? Second, will he play well enough at first base to rack up a full season of playing time, or will the Brewers feel compelled to sit him down in some situations? Given both questions, I’ll take the under.

For the reasons cited above regarding Yelich’s RBI, I’ll also take the under on Hiura’s. It’s simply not clear he’ll get enough opportunities with runners on base to clear this mark.

Omar Narvaez: 10.5 home runs

In a season where a lot of position players struggled, Narvaez might have been the Brewers’ biggest disappointment in 2020. His offensive game was virtually non-existent, and he batted .176 with a .294 on-base and .269 slugging in 40 appearances. Narvaez is a better hitter than that, and has more home runs this spring (three) than he did during the 2020 regular season (two).

Even if Narvaez bounces back, however, there’s also a question of playing time: Manny Pina has been one of the Brewers’ top contributors this spring and figures to catch a significant number of games. That likely eats into Narvaez’s opportunities, so I’ll take the under.

Brandon Woodruff: 12 wins, 200.5 strikeouts

Woodruff was a durable and reliable ace for the Brewers in the abbreviated 2020 season, leading all of baseball with 13 starts and posting a 3.05 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. If he remains healthy and pitches a full season both of these numbers are easily within reach.

Woodruff has, however, never pitched more than 121 2/3 innings in a season at the MLB level and last reached 150 in a season in 2016, when he was still in the minors. The Brewers’ season might depend on him being able to take a big step forward, but they’ll likely need to proceed with caution to avoid injury risk. He’ll need to routinely pitch deep into games to rack up 12 wins, and 200 strikeouts is likely only attainable if he logs more than 170 innings (after 73 2/3 in 2020). I’ll take both unders.

Corbin Burnes: 10.5 wins, 207.5 strikeouts

The same concerns that apply to Woodruff weigh even more heavily on Burnes, who came in just under 60 innings in 2020, just over 70 in 2019 and 116 2/3 between the minors and majors in 2018. Burnes was electric in 2020 but his ability to reach either of these thresholds likely depends on him pitching more than would be advisable. I’ll take both unders.

Brett Anderson: 7.5 wins

This would have been a clear choice for “under” a month ago, when Anderson was not a given to regularly pitch in the Brewers’ rotation given their depth of candidates. Anderson made 10 starts for the Brewers in 2020 but pitched just 47 innings, an issue given that starting pitchers need to work five innings to qualify for a win.

After Eric Lauer’s step back this spring, however, and given some of the concerns listed above about other pitchers’ workloads, the Brewers may well turn to Anderson to eat some innings this season and keep their bullpen fresh. I’ll take the over.

Josh Hader: 27.5 saves

This question is really “Will Josh Hader spend the entire season as the Brewers’ closer?” Assuming Hader remains healthy and in that role, 28 saves is a low bar to clear. The Brewers have also expressed interest in reducing Hader’s multi-inning outings, keeping him available more often to pitch the ninth. Hader’s control took a big step back in 2020 and his numbers declined as a result, but he’s still one of the game’s elite late inning pitchers. I’ll take the over, to complete a field with just five overs and 10 unders for 2021.