Photo Credit: Scott Paulus
As the Brewers progress through their offseason, the number “16” is likely to come up with some regularity. Sixteen is the number of players in the Brewers’ organization eligible for salary arbitration this winter, and nearly all those players will receive significant raises if the organization opts to retain them for another season. MLB Trade Rumors has projections for these players’ contracts that would represent a significant expenditure for an organization that already stretched its financial limits in 2019.
The Brewers have several weeks to make decisions on these 16 players, but three are likely to be among the toughest:
Orlando Arcia
Arcia is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected to receive around $2.7 million after making just slightly more than the league minimum at $565,700 in 2019. He has already played 479 games over four seasons as a Brewer despite being just 25 years old, but his offensive game has not progressed the way the Brewers may have hoped: His .283 on-base percentage with somewhat limited power made him one of the least valuable offensive regulars in all of baseball in 2019.
Arcia’s calling card has always been his defense, however, and statistically he was very good in that part of the game again this season. Despite a public narrative that his defensive value had declined a bit at times, he’s provided about 15 runs of value over the last three seasons in the field. The most telling number from Arcia’s 2019 season, however, may be games played. Despite his offensive struggles the Brewers still put Arcia in 152 games and sent him to the plate 546 times, likely due to a combination of some continued faith in his skills and some lack of faith in the alternatives.
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In the end, the Brewers’ lack of internal options is likely to be a factor in their decision on Arcia. They could look to bring in external candidates to push him next spring, but they’re unlikely to turn down a relatively inexpensive opportunity to retain him without a plan in place.
Travis Shaw
It’s hard to imagine a drop in status more precipitous than what Shaw experienced in 2019. Before the season he looked like a bat the Brewers could not live without, a player who had been worth around eight wins above replacement over the previous two seasons. They moved recent free agent re-acquisition Mike Moustakas to second base to make room for him and had every reason to believe they’d receive continued offensive production from one of their most reliable contributors.
What followed instead was a disaster. After a successful first week to the season Shaw batted .146 with a .258 on-base percentage and .255 slugging in his last 80 games, a stretch that included a stint on the disabled list and a long stint at the AAA level. Shaw had no issues in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where he carried a .437 on-base percentage and hit 12 homers in 42 games, but he never regained his previous form in the majors.
The arbitration system nearly always results in players receiving a salary bump year-over-year, but Shaw’s projected raise is just $50,000, from $4.675 million in 2019 to $4.7 million in 2020. It seems unlikely the Brewers will retain his services at that price, but they could work out a lesser deal to retain a player who has previously expressed a comfort level in Milwaukee and has been productive in the recent past.
Jimmy Nelson
Nelson’s long rehab from a 2017 shoulder injury carried over into 2019, when he finally returned to a major league mound but was unable to immediately replicate the success he experienced two years earlier. Nelson made just ten appearances, including three starts, for the Brewers in 2019 and posted a 6.95 ERA, allowing 42 baserunners in 22 innings.
As a team the Brewers had nothing left to play for in the late innings on the season’s final day with their postseason fate already decided. Nelson, however, had an opportunity to make a final statement before the book closed on his season and worked two perfect innings against the Rockies with four strikeouts. Perhaps more notable than the results, however, was Nelson’s velocity: He was hitting 94-96 with his fastball, a few ticks above his season average of 92.7. The outing raised the possibility that Nelson is regaining some strength as he continues to re-train his surgically repaired arm.
Nelson is projected to receive $3.7 million in 2020, which would be his last arbitration season before he’s eligible for free agency. The Brewers may not have a clear role for him at this point, but he’ll be an interesting buy-low project for someone if he doesn’t stick around in Milwaukee.
