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Freddy Peralta is looking pretty good this spring, and it might be because he’s a little more comfortable.
Peralta allowed no runs on a single hit across his first five Cactus League innings while finalizing a new five-year contract from the Brewers that could keep him in Milwaukee through 2026 with a pair of club options. Including the signing bonus from his first professional contract in 2013, Peralta has made about a million dollars across seven professional seasons (most of that coming in 2019), so the guaranteed $15.5 million over the next five years is a big deal for him and his family.
The deal is also a sign the Brewers have some confidence in Peralta’s continued development. He posted a 5.29 ERA in 39 appearances in the majors in 2019, striking out over 12 batters per nine innings but giving up home runs at a rate that outpaced the league average. He’s also coming off a nice run in the Dominican Winter League, however, that has sparked some confidence in him going forward.
If Peralta has a big year, then it almost certainly would have cost the Brewers more than $15.5 million to keep him for the next five seasons. So, the Brewers gained the possibility of retaining a star at a sub-market price for the long term, while Peralta gained a guarantee that he and his family will be taken care of financially for a long time. These kinds of deals make a lot of sense for both sides, and as Jeff Passan of ESPN noted, teams are motivated to sign contracts like this in the weeks leading up to the season.
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With Peralta’s deal done, here are some others the Brewers could approach for similar reasons:
Brandon Woodruff
A first-time All Star in 2019, Woodruff took the big step forward the Brewers needed him to take a year ago and has a 3.62 ERA across 164 innings at the major league level in 2018 and 2019. He turned 27 in February and is a likely candidate to be the Brewers’ best pitcher in 2020, if not their Opening Day starter.
Woodruff has accumulated slightly less than two years of MLB service time, but he’s projected to be arbitration-eligible for the 2021 season as a “Super 2” player. He won’t be eligible for free agency until the 2025 season (barring some major change in the next collective bargaining agreement), but a big year could lead to a dramatic salary increase for him over his remaining team-controlled seasons. The Brewers could be wise to reach out and see if they can offer Woodruff some financial security in exchange for long-term savings.
Keston Hiura
It’s hard to imagine an MLB debut season going much better than Hiura’s did in 2019, when he carried a .368 on-base percentage and hit 19 home runs. The only major questions facing him going forward are his ability to stick at second base defensively and why the Brewers didn’t make an effort to get his bat in the lineup sooner.
Hiura has less than one year of MLB service time at this point and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2023 season (again, assuming that system isn’t overhauled in the new CBA). Similar to Peralta’s situation, however, the Brewers may be in a position to give him life-changing money in exchange for cost certainty during his arbitration years or delaying his eventual free agency.
Eric Lauer
One of the biggest questions for the 2020 Brewers is how Lauer will adjust to the move from San Diego to Milwaukee. He was serviceable but not spectacular in his age 23 and 24 seasons for the Padres, but he benefitted from their schedule, where 20 of his 30 appearances in 2019 were in one of the bottom seven MLB stadiums for run scoring.
Lauer’s future value could fluctuate wildly based on his performance in 2020. If he can establish himself as a viable mid-rotation starter, then he’ll immediately be in line to reap the benefits of doing so, as he’s expected to be eligible for arbitration as a “Super 2” player next winter. He could also have a rough year in Milwaukee, however, and be a non-tender candidate eight months from now. Given that risk, both sides have some incentive to come to the table and hedge their bets.
