Photo via Jake Bauers - Instagram
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers with the Yankees
A lot can happen in the 129 days between Monday and MLB’s 2024 Opening Day, but one thing is all but guaranteed at this point: For the 12th time in 13 seasons, the Brewers will open the season with a new starter at first base.
Until 2023 the last Brewer to fill that role in back-to-back seasons had been Prince Fielder, who was there for six consecutive years from 2006-11. Rowdy Tellez finally stopped that revolving door by starting the season there in 2022 and 2023, but on Friday night the Brewers opted not to tender him a contract for 2024.
The reset at first base goes deeper than that, however: Ten players logged at least one game for the Brewers at first base in 2023 but only one of them, Owen Miller, remains in the organization. In fact, Miller is the only holdover of the 169 players who have appeared at first base at any point in franchise history.
Time for a New Strategy?
There’s certainly a reasonable argument to make that the Brewers were due for a new strategy at the position: Even after Carlos Santana joined the team after the trade deadline and bolstered that spot, Brewers first basemen still ranked 28th out of 30 MLB teams with a .681 on-base plus slugging in 2023. Tellez, who played there more often than anyone else, was actually a little below that average with a .677 OPS in 69 games.
Tellez is still the same guy who hit 35 home runs as a Brewer in 2022, however, and replacing him is going to take more than just finding someone who can play the position. At least in part because of his big 2022 season, the Brewers batted Tellez third or fourth in the lineup in 66 games in 2023. His struggles and eventual departure mean the Brewers need to replace a middle-of-the-order bat.
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So far the candidates to replace Tellez, however, would seem like an unlikely fit to fill that spot. FanGraphs’ depth charts have recent trade acquisition Jake Bauers as the most likely candidate to start at first base on Opening Day. Bauers, who turned 28 in October, has played four seasons in the majors across four organizations but has never hit well enough to stick in someone’s lineup. He’s a career .211 batter with a .302 on-base and .361 slugging. Last season with the Yankees he set a career high with 12 home runs but sacrificed some plate discipline for power and saw his on-base percentage fall to .279. He’s been somewhat better against right-handed pitchers than lefties, but even on his strong side his production is below what would typically be expected from an everyday first baseman.
The Brewers could look to upgrade this position on the free agent market, where top candidates may include former Phille Rhys Hoskins, former Giant and Blue Jay Brandon Belt or Carlos Santana, if the front office can convince him to return. It’s also possible they could, however, try to fill the spot with another player they’ve already signed to a large contract.
As the Brewers’ crop of young outfielders mature and start to require regular playing time, it raises questions about the future for Christian Yelich. Offensively Yelich is coming off his best season in a long time, and while he was not near his previous MVP level he’s played well enough that he should be in the lineup most days. Certainly, it would be easier for him and the Brewers’ top prospects to play at the same time if one of them could play first base.
Moving a player who has spent their entire career in the outfield to first base, however, isn’t as simple as just penciling him into a different spot in the lineup. Yelich has never played any infield position in a professional game, so there would almost certainly be a learning curve for him at a new position. He also throws right-handed, which isn’t ideal for a first baseman, and he has a history of back trouble that almost certainly won’t be helped by playing a position with a lot of bending and scooping of thrown balls. It’s been a long time since Yelich was an elite defender in the outfield, but in 2023 he was steady out there and played in left field in 122 games.
They certainly have some time to figure it out, but right now the Brewers’ list of candidates to log playing time at first base is largely composed of unlikely options. A year ago at this time it seemed like Rowdy Tellez might solidify the position for the long term, but this winter the Brewers will be back to the drawing board.
