Chourio Deal Answers Some Questions, Raises Others for Brewers

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Photo via Jackson Chourio - Instagram @jacksonbryaan

Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

The Brewers appear poised to hand out one of the largest contracts in franchise history this week, but it’s likely not to someone most fans would have predicted entering the offseason.

Venezuelan outfielder Jackson Chourio won’t turn 20 until March and has played in just six games at the AAA level, but on Sunday reports were circulating that he had agreed to an eight-year extension believed to be worth more than $80 million to play in Milwaukee through at least 2031 with club options that could extend the deal beyond that. It’ll be the most guaranteed money given to both a teenager and a player with no major league experience.

Despite his young age, Chourio has been one of the game’s top prospects for quite a while now. Before the 2023 season Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus all had him as one of the top ten minor leaguers in the world. He lived up to that billing when he played in 122 games for AA Biloxi this season and batted .280 with a .336 on-base and .476 slugging despite being almost five years younger than the average player at that level. He’s also stolen 68 bases across three minor league seasons and is a very good defender in center field. He made his second appearance in MLB’s All Star Week Futures Game this year.

Even before this extension Chourio was likely to be one of the top stories when the Brewers report to spring training in February. As a 19-year-old who spent most of last season at AA, there almost certainly would have been and may still be significant debate about where he should start the 2024 season. Before this deal the Brewers would have had an additional incentive to start the season with him in the minors: By keeping him in AAA to open the season they would have been able to keep him from accumulating a full season of MLB service time and delayed his free agency by a year. That’s all a moot point now, so if Chourio looks as good this spring as he’s looked virtually everywhere else there would be no reason to hold him back.

Extra Incentive

On the other end of the spectrum, if the Brewers think Chourio is ready to be a star at the MLB level they have some extra incentive to get him on the field: Under the current collective bargaining agreement the Brewers could earn an additional future draft pick if Chourio wins the Rookie of the Year Award in 2024 or finishes in the top three in MVP voting anytime during his first three seasons. It’s too early to think of Chourio as an MVP candidate, but he’ll almost certainly be a trendy pick to be the National League’s top rookie.

Before he can contend for any awards, however, the Brewers need to figure out how they’re going to get him into the lineup. Most of the young stars they promoted to the majors in 2023 (including Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer) are outfielders, and all of them are likely most valuable when playing in center. Finding playing time and maximizing the value of that trio plus Chourio and Christian Yelich could be a real challenge for new manager Pat Murphy and the Brewers’ front office, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Brewers look to trade someone from this surplus in an effort to address needs elsewhere. 

Furthermore, while signing Chourio is easily the Brewers’ biggest move of the offseason to date, it shouldn’t preclude them from making others. Even if he had made the Opening Day roster Chourio likely would have earned a salary at or near the league minimum for the next three seasons until he became eligible for arbitration. It’s standard for pre-arbitration contracts like this one to be heavily backloaded, with the player receiving most of the money during what would have been their arbitration and free agent years. So, while the Brewers now know they’ll be paying Chourio for a long time, they also likely know his impact on their short term budget is minimal.

Nonetheless, Brewers fans have had cause to look to the future and pencil Jackson Chourio into starting lineups. After this week it seems likely they’ll be doing it sooner than later, and probably for a long time.