It’s not a great time in baseball history to be a starting pitcher that doesn’t throw hard. “If I see a pitcher that can’t hit 90-92 (mph),” one National League scout said last season, “I just write ‘non-prospect’ next to his name and move on.”
That scout and many others, however, would have missed out on Zach Davies. As of Sunday 137 players had thrown at least 1000 pitches in the majors this season, and Davies was one of just five that didn’t use a four-seam fastball often enough to have an average velocity reading on Baseball Savant, a website that tracks MLB’s Statcast data. Davies instead relies upon a two-seam sinking fastball but he doesn’t throw that hard either: His average sinker clocks in at 88.2 mph, fifth slowest among that same sample. His companions at the bottom of that leaderboard include:
- Veteran Mets lefty Jason Vargas, who made more headlines by threatening to punch a reporter than with his on-field performance this season.
- Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc, who has a 5.05 ERA and is likely nearing the end of his MLB tenure.
- Another Mariner, Mike Leake, who has both pitched a near-perfect game and allowed seven runs in the first inning of a start in the last ten days.
Davies, however, is quietly bouncing back from a lost season in 2018 to produce the best results of his major league career. His 2.79 earned run average is easily the best he’s posted in five major league seasons. The Brewers are 13-7 when he starts and just 40-41 with anyone else on the mound. Both of those statistics have some luck and other factors outside his control baked in, but even after adjusting for that it’s tough to ignore what he’s been able to accomplish.
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This season Davies has arguably even outpitched the standard bearer for low-velocity MLB success: He’s thrown more innings with an ERA half a run lower and fewer home runs allowed than Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks. Like Davies, Hendricks has experienced sustained MLB results despite a low strikeout rate.
This is still only Davies’ age 26 season but he’s already also shown impressive longevity as a Brewers starter: On Thursday he became just the 23rd pitcher in franchise history to start 100 games in a Brewers uniform, and just the fourth to reach that mark this decade. Before Davies, only Yovani Gallardo, Jimmy Nelson and Wily Peralta had achieved this level of longevity as a Brewer since 2010.
For the remainder of his career Davies will likely face questions about the sustainability of his results. FanGraphs’ xFIP is a statistic designed to estimate a pitcher’s expected outcomes independent of defense and luck, and it suggests Davies should have an ERA over 5 at this point. None of the site’s four projection models expect him to post an ERA lower than 4.35 for his remaining appearances this season.
The Brewers’ viability as a postseason contender, however, may depend on his ability to continue to produce at this level. Their already beleaguered starting rotation got a step thinner on Sunday when Brandon Woodruff exited early with an oblique injury, which will only put more pressure on Davies and others to carry the load until his return. Even if they add a starter before the trade deadline, Davies will likely pitch critical innings for this team in the season’s final months.
Over the last few years it’s become increasingly difficult for a pitcher like Zach Davies to overcome concerns about his low fastball velocity and slight build. The Brewers, however, are reaping the benefits of his ability to consistently outperform expectations.
