Did the Brewers Sell High on Starting Pitching?

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Photo via Corbin Burnes - Instagram

Corbin Burnes

Corbin Burnes

In the days after the Brewers traded former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, there have been plenty of theories about why they dealt their best pitcher. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said the Brewers “had to” make this move to get something for Burnes before he reached free agency next winter. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested the Brewers might not be done and could also deal shortstop Willy Adames, who is also scheduled to be a free agent after the season. Certainly this trade reduces the Brewers’ financial commitment for the year ahead: With Burnes gone and Brandon Woodruff non-tendered for 2024 FanGraphs has the Brewers’ estimated payroll at just $102 million, down from an Opening Day number of $118 million in 2023 and $131 million in 2022.

It’s possible the Brewers felt like they had to make this move to remain competitive for the long term. It’s possible they’ll continue to sell, and it’s possible that lowering their payroll commitment is a factor in that decision. It’s also possible, however, that by dealing Burnes the Brewers are selling high on elite starting pitching, an increasingly deprioritized element in the modern game of baseball.

It’s no secret around the sport that the role of the starting pitcher isn’t what it used to be. Long gone are the days when starting pitchers routinely or even occasionally completed games, but most starting pitchers rarely even approach the late innings at this point. “Five and dive” used to be a derogatory term for a pitcher who could only be counted on to complete five innings before the bullpen had to take over, but it’s become the norm: A starting pitcher went five innings or less in almost half the MLB games in 2023, and six innings or less in 83% of games.

All But Extinct?

In the early days of this transition there were still some pitchers who routinely defied this trend and pitched deeper into games, but that’s increasingly not the case. In 2023 Corbin Burnes pitched 193 2/3 innings and it was the tenth most of any pitcher in the majors. In 2013 that would have ranked 45th. Wayne Franklin, who had a 5.50 ERA for the 2003 Brewers, logged more innings that season than Corbin Burnes pitched as one of the game’s elite hurlers in 2023. Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer wrote about this trend in January, noting that the “innings eater” pitcher is all but extinct in the sport.

If that trend continues, however, then it stands to reason that the game’s top starting pitchers also aren’t as valuable as they used to be. If a team can cobble together a collection of starting options that can regularly work four or five solid innings, then the gap between that and the expected outing for an ace starting pitcher is narrower than it would have been even a decade ago.

“If you have a couple of elite pitches maybe that’s enough and you can get by, because you only have to get by for five innings now. So, you don’t have to get through a lineup three or four times and show people lots of pitches. If you get through twice, ok, job well done, hit the showers,” Lindbergh said on Episode 2112 of his podcast, Effectively Wild. “I think the bar for starters is so low that even pitchers who have washed out of a rotation, the distinction between relief and the rotation now is smaller than it’s ever been. So maybe you can fake it as a starter.”

One of the players the Brewers received in return for Burnes might be a candidate for exactly that kind of role. DL Hall is a former first round pick and both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have ranked him as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball in each of the last five seasons, but 28 of his 29 MLB outings to date have come as a reliever and his longest MLB outing lasted just 3 2/3 innings. Hall has work to do to prove he’s capable of being a regular member of an MLB starting rotation, but the bar to clear to stick there is lower than it’s ever been before. If Hall can routinely work 4-5 innings that might be enough and, as noted a few weeks ago, the Brewers’ bullpen depth puts them in a better position than most to turn short starter outings into wins. 

Only time will tell if the Brewers will regret letting Corbin Burnes leave or if they’ll find value in the pieces they got in return for him. It’s possible, however, that the biggest move of their offseason was selling high on a commodity that’s simply not as valuable in the current iteration of the game.