PHOTO CREDIT: BENDREW V./FLICKR
With spring training just a couple of weeks away and all but a few of the top free agents settling into new homes, it’s bargain-hunting season for MLB general managers. It’s a time of year for reclamation projects and long shots, and two recent former Brewers are among that group.
Jeremy Jeffress will be looking to rebound from a disastrous 2019 season in close proximity to his former home, having signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. The Brewers released Jeffress in September, just a little more than a year after he made his first All Star appearance. He pitched in 48 games for Milwaukee in 2019, however, and posted an ERA over 5 in those outings.
The Cubs aren’t risking much on Jeffress: They gave him a major league contract, but he’s guaranteed just $850,000 with another $200,000 possible in incentives related to games pitched (according to Cot’s Contracts). It’s a significant pay cut from the $3+ million he made with the Brewers last season, and it will look like a bargain if he’s able to regain anything resembling the form he displayed in 2018.
Of course, nearly all of Jeffress’ successful stints in the majors have one thing in common: They came in Milwaukee. Even after a rough season in 2019, Jeffress has a 2.66 career ERA in 301 games as a Brewer and a 4.76 mark in 91 games across six seasons as a Royal, Blue Jay and Ranger. In essence, the Cubs are taking a double risk, betting on Jeffress to regain his previous form while also bucking a trend in his performance away from Milwaukee.
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PHOTO CREDIT: KIRSTEN SCHMITT
Around the same time the Jeffress signing became official, another prominent former Brewer accepted a buy-low deal: Jhoulys Chacin went from being the Brewers’ Opening Day starter in 2019 to signing a minor league deal with the Twins less than a year later. Chacin, who has made at least 24 starts in the majors in each of the last four seasons, will have to earn his way back to the majors with Minnesota if he’s going to continue that streak.
After being a key contributor to the 2018 Brewers, Chacin’s effectiveness quickly diminished in 2019, eventually leading to his release in late August. He had a 5.79 ERA in 19 starts for the Brewers, then he moved on to the Red Sox and saw matters go from bad to worse as he allowed 23 baserunners and 12 runs in just 14 ⅔ innings in Boston.
Chacin’s arsenal has long featured one of the game’s best sliders, and even during his disastrous 2019 campaign, it still rated as an above-average pitch. It’s entirely possible his decline has to do with another oft-used pitch, however, that has fallen out of fashion across the game. Chacin leans heavily on a sinking fastball, and the data would suggest he’s doing so to his own detriment.
For many years, the ability to throw a fastball with sink and attack the lower portion of the strike zone was a highly valued skill across baseball, but in the “launch angle” era, it’s become a bit of a liability. As more and more hitters add an uppercut element to their swing, they’re crushing sinking fastballs that enter the strike zone on a similar plane to their bat. Chacin’s peripheral numbers tell the story of that trend: His sinking fastball had rated below average for several years according to FanGraphs but reached a major low point in 2019. FanGraphs’ Pitch Values data rated his fastball as 26.7 runs below average last season despite the fact that he only pitched about half of an MLB season’s worth of innings.
Unless they make more additions, the Twins are likely to give Chacin an opportunity to make the necessary adjustments to regain effectiveness: At the moment, their starting rotation features several question marks behind Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. And, like the Cubs with Jeffress, the Twins aren’t taking much of a risk. Chacin’s minor league contract likely won’t cost Minnesota much of anything unless he earns an opportunity to pitch in the big leagues.
There’s a non-zero chance that Jeffress, Chacin or both will bounce back and help their new teams, resuscitating their careers and raising a question about why the Brewers opted to let them become someone else’s inexpensive contributor. The Brewers, however, have opted to take that risk and look for contributions elsewhere.
