The Brewers picked up a little bit of budget flexibility last week when they opted not to offer arbitration to second baseman Jonathan Schoop and relievers Dan Jennings and Xavier Cedeno, who were projected to receive a combined $13 million in salaries in 2019. Exactly how much financial wiggle room they have, however, is unknown.
The Brewers opened the 2018 season with a payroll just over $90 million—up significantly from around $63 million in both 2016 and 2017—and added significantly via in-season acquisitions. The franchise appears poised to open the season with a payroll above $100 million in 2019 for just the third time in franchise history and the first since 2015. It’s worth noting, however, that $100 million isn’t what it used to be.
As recently as 2013, having a $100 million Opening Day payroll would have put a team in the top half of MLB in spending. That’s no longer the case: Cleveland had the game’s 15th most expensive Opening Day roster in 2018 at $136.6 million. 21 teams opened the 2018 season with more than $100 million committed in salaries, including the Brewers’ Midwest small market contemporaries in Minnesota, Kansas City and Detroit. The Brewers have come a long way since the sub-$40 million rosters put forth at the end of the Selig Era in 2004 and 2005, but so has the rest of baseball.
Clearly, the Brewers’ willingness to invest in payroll will be a major factor in their offseason decisions. If they’re unwilling to spend more than they have in the past, then it’s going to be difficult for David Stearns and company to do more than tinker around the edges of the current roster. Even without Schoop and Mike Moustakas, who declined his half of a $15 million mutual option, the Brewers already have about $97.5 million committed for 2019 (per Kyle Lesniewski of Brew Crew Ball). If previous seasons’ spending is any indication, the Brewers simply don’t have much left to offer to potential additions.
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Of course, it’s worth noting that the Brewers’ previous thrift has not always led to poorer outcomes. Last winter, for example, they opted not to outbid their competitors for starting pitchers Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb and instead made a much smaller investment in Jhoulys Chacin, who outperformed all three of them.
It’s also worth noting that the major league roster isn’t the only place where the Brewers are spending money. They’re making major contributions to the renovation project at Maryvale Baseball Park, an expenditure that won’t show up on their MLB payroll estimates but does impact their available funds.
Nonetheless, the Brewers’ capacity to improve and expand their current window to win is likely impacted by ownership’s willingness or unwillingness to expand their financial commitment at the MLB level. The Brewers will likely never compete financially with the game’s biggest markets, but there’s only so much that can be expected of them when they’re routinely being outspent by two-thirds or more of their opponents.
The Brewers’ financial situation is not publicly disclosed, of course, but it’d be a shock if 2018 wasn’t an exceptionally strong year. They contended ahead of schedule, drew 2.85 million fans to Miller Park and hosted seven postseason games. Their late charge and postseason run should lead to another strong financial season in 2019: Each of the franchise’s previous postseason appearances have been followed by high demand for tickets the next year.
This is an organization with a solid core and nearly all of the notable pieces from their 2018 postseason run should be back to take another shot at it in 2019. Their chances of success, however, depend at least partially on their willingness to reinvest their profits.
