Pitcher Josh Lindblom Returns From Korea

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Photo Credit: Bridget Samuels

The Brewers’ fate in 2020 may depend, at least in part, on a player who hasn’t pitched consistently on American soil in a long time.

Josh Lindblom made four relief appearances as a member of the 2017 Pirates but hasn’t started a game in the majors since 2014, when he took the mound exactly one time for the Athletics. Since that outing, he’s logged 130 starts in the Korean Baseball Organization and has posted an ERA under 3.00 across full seasons in each of the last two years. He was selected as the KBO Most Valuable Player in 2019, when he had a 2.50 ERA over 194 2/3 innings with 189 strikeouts and just 29 walks.

While most Brewers fans probably missed Lindblom’s big year, David Schultz was following it closely. He’s a Wisconsin-based data caster covering the KBO for Stats Perform (formerly Stats LLC), meaning he’s been up in the early morning hours watching Lindblom pitch for years now. We talked with Schultz about Eric Thames in the leadup to his 2017 Brewers debut, and we touched base again to get his thoughts on Lindblom’s MLB return.

Were you excited to see the Brewers go back to the KBO again to add Josh Lindblom?

Excited may be too strong of a word. It didn’t surprise me. I know there was some panic in Brewer Nation because they felt, “We lost Mike Moustakas, we lost Yasmani Grandal, we’re not going to have a team next year.” That’s typical of any fan base. I knew they would cobble together and pick up some good pieces to the puzzle and plug them in, and when they signed Lindblom, I kind of raised my eyebrow and thought, “he should fit into Milwaukee quite well.”

He’s the kind of guy that’s going to be out there every fifth day. He never missed a start in KBO in two years, and he’s going to give you six innings and keep you in the game. It’s pretty much what the Brewers’ staff has been comprised of the last few years.

When we last talked about the KBO, we talked about the level of competition, which you identified as somewhere between the AA and AAA levels in the US. Is that still the case?

It’s still two and a half A. I sent you a link that details what they refer to as “import players,” that gives you kind of an idea of the players he was facing. There are guys like Mac Williamson, who flamed out with both the Giants and Seattle this past season and then wound up in KBO. Guys like Jerry Sands, who had a cup of coffee with San Francisco. Byung Ho Park, who had the brief career with the Twins.

That’s the kind of players that he was facing, and he actually didn’t have to face the best import player this year because he was a teammate: Jose Fernandez, who hit .344 and had 15 home runs.

I would say one thing about KBO: While MLB home runs are spiking, KBO seemed to be going the other way and there were rumors that they had deadened the ball.

When we talked about the league, last time, it was a pretty heavy offensive league with some really gaudy numbers being put up over there. Did that change this year?

That changed. Gone are the days when I had games that were 17-16 and 21-9. Those have gone away. It’s by no means a pitcher-dominated league, it’s still pretty pitcher-weak. But the overall run production, I don’t have those double-digit games for both teams. They just weren’t out there this year.

(KBO teams averaged 4.56 runs per game this season, the first time that average had dipped under 5 since 2013. Teams averaged 5.53 runs per game in 2018.)

How often did you get a chance to see Lindblom pitch this year?

Maybe half a dozen, six to eight times. Anytime I looked at the upcoming probables for the games I was going to cover, I did get a little excited when I would see that I was going to have one of his games because he’s a strike-thrower, his games go quick, and I had a good chance to get a game in under three hours.

Now, he did finish the season kind of in a rough spell. He started out the season 20-1, but he was winless in his last six starts of the season. He struggled a little bit. Then, the Doosan Bears (Lindblom’s team) finished first in the regular season, meaning they got to bypass the postseason’s preliminary rounds and go right to the Korea Series, so he had about a three-week rest before they resumed play. He did start Game 1, that was the only game he pitched and the only game they needed out of him because they swept the series in four games, but he did have a pretty good outing. He went six innings, gave up one run and I was surprised they lifted him after 90 pitches.

The bullpens are very unpredictable in KBO, and he left with a 6-1 lead and they won 7-6. He did get the decision. I don’t know if he was getting tired at the end of the year, but he did struggle for the last month.

I will say, KBO didn’t burn him out. He pitched pretty much once a week. They’re off every Monday, and he started 30 games in a 144-game season, he averaged between six and seven innings per start and I think he averaged just under 100 pitches per start.

How do you think his stuff will translate back to MLB?

If you really want to get a good measure of what to expect from Lindblom, I wouldn’t put my expectations way out there, but I think you can get a pretty good idea if you look at the numbers that Merrill Kelly put up for the Diamondbacks in 2019. He was in KBO for four seasons and came back this year, and he was a good—I’d say #4 starter for the D-Backs. He had 32 starts and kept the Diamondbacks in most of the games that he pitched. He’s the kind of guy that will give you the six innings and gives you a chance to win.

I think that’s a realistic expectation out of Lindblom. He’s not going to go 20-3 (as he did in KBO in 2019), but if he goes 20-3 for the Brewers, that’s the bargain of the century. But I think you have to look at things realistically, and I think that’d be a good benchmark. They’re very similar in age, as well. Kelly is going to be 31 next season, and Lindblom is 32. So, I think that’s a good comparison.

Are you aware of any other Korean players that might come to the U.S. this winter that you think the Brewers should take a look at?

I know there’s this left-handed pitcher that the Cardinals are apparently close to signing. Kwang-hyun Kim, who was pitching for the SK Wyverns; he’s similar in age, he’s 31. (Kim later signed a two-year, $8 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals.)

The thing that I’m concerned about with him is he’s 31 but he’s pitched 13 years. His career started in 2007, when he was 18. The next year, in 2008, he won their version of the Cy Young as a 19-year-old, and then he had Tommy John surgery and missed 2017. He bounced back really well and he’s one of my favorite pitchers. He had probably the best pitched game that I’ve covered in over 600 KBO games. He had a game where it was right around two hours, he retired 22 hitters in a row, and the 23rd guy was with two outs in the ninth. He gave up a hit and finished with a two-hit shutout. I was like, “Man, I hope I get his games more often.”

I talked to Eric Thames when he first got here, and he mentioned that a player that he saw in KBO that would have a chance in MLB was the right-fielder for the Lotte Giants, Ah-seop Son. He’s one of my favorites, too. He reminds me a lot of (former Brewer Norichika) Aoki as far as his body type. He’s a left-handed hitter, a slap hitter, good right-fielder, but he’s getting up in years now, and I’ve not read that he’s ever shown an interest in coming over to MLB.

Byung Ho Park came over and he struggled. (Park played in 62 games for the 2016 Twins and batted .191 before returning to Korea.) He had injury issues and I think he had issues as far as his wife and young son, who I don’t think ever adapted to America, and that can be a heavy issue on a player, when your spouse is not happy.

Plus, think of all the travel that’s involved. That’s one thing that I marvel at, and I don’t think people appreciate that. For the Korean and Japanese players, they play all their games within the same time zone. There’s very minimal travel, they have a very structured schedule, every Monday is off. They never have three-hour time differences to cope with. That kind of thing I think never gets enough mention when you think about the adjustment that players make when they come over to America.

Schultz can be found discussing KBO baseball and more on Twitter at @Sultan_of_stats.