Revisiting Christian Yelich's Brewers Extension

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Photo via Christian Yelich - Instagram

Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

On Friday while many Brewers fans were presumably out doing some holiday shopping a few of them got a strong, albeit misleading, implication that the Brewers had made a sale of their own.

Android phone users who have previously shown interest in the Brewers received a suggested “news” story on Friday with a headline starting with “Milwaukee Brewers Trade Christian Yelich …” Some presumably clicked through to see the full headline from the site Wisconsin Sports Heroics, which read “Milwaukee Brewers Trade Christian Yelich to Yankees in ‘Admittedly Wild’ Proposal.” Yelich has not been traded, and there hasn’t been any credible reporting to suggest he will be.

The headline itself was a clever piece of search engine optimization and clickbait, internet practices which are nothing new. The fact that a Yelich trade is plausible enough to be the target of those kind of tactics, however, is a sign that the Brewers did pretty well when signing Yelich to a long-term extension in the spring of 2020. At that time Yelich, who otherwise could have been a free agent following the 2022 season, agreed to seven additional years in Milwaukee (his new contract replaced but retained the salary totals for the 2020 and 2021 seasons) for a total of $188.5 million.

Contract Extension

Between that contract and the extension Yelich signed with the Marlins before coming to Milwaukee the Brewers have paid Yelich $121.25 million to date, plus award bonuses but minus $12 million in deferred salary over the last three years (per Cot’s Contracts). Over that time he has been the 2018 National League MVP, won a pair of batting titles and accumulated 24.3 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball Reference), the ninth-most of any Brewer in franchise history.

The first half of nearly every MLB contract is the better half, however. In baseball large contracts are almost always backloaded to provide short-term flexibility for teams and to allow the player to get the largest total number of raw dollars before factoring in inflation. Yelich’s contract is pretty typical in that regard: While he made about $17.4 million per year during his first seven seasons in Milwaukee (minus deferred salary and the portion of his salary lost to the shortened 2020 season), he’ll make $26 million per season over the next four years before getting $20 million on a mutual option (or a $6.5 million buyout) in 2029. This is not an indication that the Brewers expect Yelich to be at his most valuable in his mid-to-late 30’s (he’ll be 36 in 2028), it’s just the typical structure of an MLB long term contract.

Because of that structure, nearly every long term MLB contract has a point where the remainder of the deal becomes a toxic asset (we talked about this near the end of Ryan Braun’s long-term deal in 2018). There will almost certainly come a point where Yelich’s projected future contributions don’t match up with his remaining committed salary, but the good news for the Brewers is they might not be there yet. 

Healthy Play

Yelich has been healthy enough to play in 144 or more games in two of the last three seasons (excepting 2024, where he missed the end of the season to have back surgery). Over that time his offensive numbers have rebounded significantly from relatively poor years in 2020 and 2021. As he entered his 30’s Yelich’s on-base plus slugging improved each year, going from .738 in 2022 to .909 in 2024. He was an All Star again in 2024.

If Yelich were a free agent this winter his back would be the subject of a significant amount of scrutiny: Teams would have a hard time committing to a lucrative long-term deal without being assured that his health problems were improved. Assuming they could get that confirmation, however, the remainder of Yelich’s Brewers contract is the equivalent of a four-year, $102 million contract with a mutual option for 2029. That falls roughly in between the five years and $125 million MLB Trade Rumors is predicting for longtime Mets slugger Pete Alonso will get as a free agent this winter and the four years, $80 million they predicted for Orioles infielder Anthony Santander. Alonso and Santander are both younger than Yelich but have similar production over the last three years: Yelich has produced 8.3 WAR over that time and so has Santander, while Alonso has 10.2. A hypothetical nine-figure contract might be a bit of a reach for the soon-to-be 33-year-old Yelich, but it’s not so far outside the realm of possibility as to be implausible.

Meanwhile, the Brewers could argue that they have internal options to fill in the gap in their lineup they would make by losing Yelich. The organization’s greatest depth of young talent is in the outfield, where they already have a challenge to find playing time for Jackson Chourio, Blake Perkins, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell. If dealing Yelich allows the Brewers to trade from a position of strength and free up financial resources to address needs elsewhere, then it could be worth considering.

Even if they don’t entertain offers for Yelich, however, the fact that it’s even a plausible move is an indication that the Brewers have done pretty well with one of the largest contracts in franchise history.