The Brewers’ Eighth Inning Problem

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Photo via Peter Strzelecki - Twitter

Peter Strzelecki

Peter Strzelecki

The Brewers are back in first place after sweeping the struggling Royals over the weekend, and they managed to avoid a pitfall that’s been a more common problem this season than in years past.

Three times on the Brewers’ recent West Coast-road trip they either had a lead or were tied in the second half of the game but couldn’t hold on to get a win across the finish line. The two most glaring instances both came in Colorado, where in a span of three days the Brewers turned a 2-2 tie in the eighth inning into a 3-2 loss and a 4-0 lead in the seventh inning into a 9-6 loss.

Relief pitching has been one of the Brewers’ biggest strong suits in recent years, but the late innings of games haven’t looked the same in 2023. Even after strong showings against the Royals this weekend, Brewers’ pitchers are allowing opponents to bat .265 with a .360 slugging percentage and .463 slugging in the eighth inning this year. When compared to the context of their overall performance (using tOPS+ data from Baseball Reference), the Brewers rank 30th among MLB teams during the eighth inning.

Brewers’ pitchers have allowed eight eighth inning home runs, their second-most of any inning this season (they’ve given up eleven in the third), but the bigger problem has been a struggle to throw strikes. The Brewers have walked 21 batters in the eighth, easily the most of any inning. Those struggles with free passes often leave relievers having to walk a tightrope to get through the inning and sometimes they fall off, like on April 23 when Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida homered twice in the eighth inning of a game where the Brewers led 4-3 after seven innings but went on to lose 12-5.

Mix-and-Match Relievers

The two pitchers who worked the eighth inning that day aren’t on the active roster at this point: That was Matt Bush’s final outing before going on the injured list and Javy Guerra’s final appearance as a Brewer before being designated for assignment. At this point they’re still the Brewers’ second and third-most frequently used pitchers in the eighth inning, however, as Craig Counsell has mix-and-matched relievers in late inning opportunities. Peter Strzelecki has pitched most often in the inning and he’s been relatively effective, holding opposing batters to a .257 batting average with .297 on-base and .371 slugging, but Hoby Milner has also seen some high-leverage opportunities there. Either way, the bridge to closer Devin Williams feels less certain than it did when Williams himself was part of the bridge to Josh Hader in prior years.

The Brewers have had some luck over the years finding valuable bullpen pieces in unlikely ways, and the current group is no exception: The list of relievers on the roster right now includes a player acquired for cash over the winter (Bryse Wilson), a Rule 5 pick (Gus Varland), a former undrafted free agent (Strzelecki) and a player signed as a minor league free agent (Milner). One of their top candidates to rejoin the MLB bullpen is former independent league pitcher Jake Cousins, who has pitched 45 games for the Brewers over the last three years with a 2.63 ERA.

The Brewers have also, however, spent a fair amount of prospect capital in recent years shoring up their bullpen at the trade deadline. Across the last three full MLB seasons (2019, 2022 and 2023) they’ve traded five minor leaguers in deadline deals for relief help. Two of the players they traded away in those deals have since played in the majors (Astros infielder Mauricio Dubon and then-Marlins catcher Payton Henry) and MLB Pipeline ranks each of the other three (pitcher Reese Olson with the Tigers, pitcher Antoine Kelly with the Rangers and outfielder Tristan Peters with the Rays) among their new organizations’ top 30 prospects. Among the pitchers acquired in return, only Matt Bush is still with the Brewers.

Whether Brewers fans have been spoiled or are merely fortunate, they’ve had cause in recent years to breathe easy when their favorite team is protecting a late-inning lead. That hasn’t always been the case this season, however, and cobbling together a new solution to the eighth inning problem might not be easy or cheap.