So the Brewers passedthe season's halfway point eight games under .500 (37-45), well behind Cincinnati and theCardinals, and fearful of how long their best pitcher might be out. Not apleasant backdrop for the Observers' confab.
Frank: The team didn’t putGallardo on the disabled list right away, buthe's shut down at least until after next week's All-Star Game—where he'll be a spectator.
Artie: Already a sub-.500 team, and now they're missing theirbest pitcher? We could be looking at 90 losses now. But hey, Doug Davis iscoming back Friday, so they've got it covered.
Frank: Even with Gallardo this team has been a puzzle. They gotthrough that 12-game stretch against winning teams—Texas,Anaheim, Coloradoand Minnesota—at7-5. But in the next two series, against lowly Seattle and Houston, they onlywent 3-3 at home. And Sunday's loss meant a split in St. Louis, so they're just treading water.
Artie: To play that clinker against Houston last Wednesday and lose thatseries—really bad. My theory is that the fellas were out too late at Summerfestthe night before. They don't seem to have any sense of urgency.
Frank: Who knows if Gallardo's high pitch counts over the seasonhad anything to do with his injury, but he was hurt on his 59th pitch in only 22/3 innings.
Artie: He was at about 30 for his last inning, and that's a lotof strain in a short time.
Frank: We were working on this week's chart even before theinjury, and it shows that compared to other top guys he throws more pitches perbatter and therefore per inning. Through Sunday, Gallardo was second in theleague in strikeouts (122) but also third in walks (48). Yeah, he should havebeen out of that third inning easily, but he also hurt himself by walking theNo. 8 hitter with the bases loaded.
Artie: Several times this year Ken Macha has lifted Gallardo whenhe was still effective because he was up over 100 pitches through six innings.If you're making an "extra" three or four pitches per inning, over a200-inning season—well, do the math. It's as if you've made several extrastarts.
Frank: They say, "Throw strikes," and there's a reason.Do it and you'll throw fewer pitches. Just look at our chart and compareGallardo and Cliff Lee, whose walks-to-strikeouts ratio is amazing.
Artie: Hey, Lee got one of those "oblique" musclestrains in spring training, ain'a? And he didn't make his first start untilApril 30. They've gotta be super-cautious with Gallardo. But remember, DougDavis is coming back.
Frank: I charted Gallardo's pitches in his last two starts athome, the shutout of Minnesota and against Houston. With the Twinshe was very efficient—12 strikeouts and no walks, going to three balls on onlythree batters and having only one inning with as many as 20 pitches. As a resulthe went nine innings with 122 pitches, or 13.5 per frame. And against Houston he was cruisingthrough four, but then had a 32-pitch fifth.
Artie: Suppan-esque.
Frank: He went to three balls on two batters in that inning,walking one. And mostly because of that inning, he was at 109 pitches throughsix—18 per inning—and done.
Artie: You can see why they'd be concerned for Gallardo, who'sonly 24. Everyone knows about Kerry Wood and Mark Prior flaming out withinjuries. And there have always been guys who were terrific when they were 23,24, but within a few years were floundering or out of baseball.
Frank: We geezers are fond of saying, "In the old days guystook the ball every fourth day and pitched till they dropped." And yes,some of them did. But not all of them, by a long shot.
Artie: I'm thinking of guys like Dean Chance, Jim O'Toole, JimMaloney, Andy Messersmith—they faded after multiple years where they pitched250, 270, even 300 innings! And Sandy Koufax quit at 31 after throwing sixhundred and fifty-eight innings in his last two seasons!
Frank: He left at the top, statistically, because his elbow was awreck and he wanted to be able to use his left arm for another few decades. Youcan say that with modern medicine some of those guys would have gotten repairedand returned to top form. But it's better to not have a breakdown in the firstplace.
Artie: Then there's simply the money they've invested inGallardo—$30 million over five years. Not quite Suppan-esque, but not chumpchange.
Frank: This week of home games is make-or-break for the Brewers.They've got to conquer San Francisco'spitching over four games and manhandle the Pirates or it'll be a bleak All-Starbreak.
Artie: With the prospect that they'll definitely be sellers, notbuyers, before the trading deadline at the end of the month. When Corey Hartplays the Giants he could be seeing the uniform he'll be wearing soon. He'llnever be a hotter commodity than he is right now. What's his contract statusanyway?
Frank: He got $4.8 million for this year in arbitration and hehas one more season before free agency. So if he's here next winter it'll be"long-term deal or lame-duck status," just like Prince Fielder.
Artie: But forget the gloom. We can all rest easy ’cause DougDavis is coming back, ain’a?
Frank: Of course we're glad Davisis free of that infection in his heart lining, but his return to the rotationmight be just what they don't need. They sure can't afford anything likethe 7.56 ERA he was carrying.
Artie: If he struggles in his first two or three outings, I'llbet they usher him to the Jeff Suppan Memorial Chair in the bullpen.
Bucks Stay Gooden Active
Frank: It's starting to look like the Bucks are gonna have a20-man roster! And every one of them a useful player.
Artie: The Drew Gooden signing is very, very good. He's anabove-average rebounder, plays defense and runs the floor decently. He's a goodmatch with Andrew Bogut.
Frank: Even though the Bucks will be his ninth team in nineseasons?
Artie: That's because he's been that one guy on all these teamswho has an affordable contract, by NBA standards. So he's been that movablepiece for trading.
Frank: Now he's got a sizable contract—five years, $32 million.And now that they've made a five-year, $40 million deal with John Salmons, plusthe $30-some million that Corey Maggette is owed over three years—yikes, doesSen. Kohl have enough money?
Artie: The NBA salary cap is so byzantine that it's hard to tellhow much counts under it for any given season. They dropped more than $10million getting rid of Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell, and a year from nowthey'll be clear of the $18 million they owe Michael Redd for next season.
Frank: Redd, coming off consecutive knee surgeries, is a bigquestion mark. And there's this—in any NBA game there are only 240 minutes ofplaying time per team. There are gonna be big decisions for Scott Skiles! We'llget into some of that next week.
