2015-16 Packer Season in Review

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Jim Bievers/ Packers.com

A lot of people, fans and media alike, see this season as a bust. In a sense any season where you do not win the Super Bowl is a failure, but it’s actually really difficult to consistently win Super Bowls. Tom Brady is often the go-to example for consistently winning the Super Bowl, but people seem to forget that before the 2014 season, the Patriots hadn’t won one for a full decade. Winning the big game requires a ton of talent and a ton of luck. You need a lot to go right for you, and you can’t control things like injuries, weather, playoff matchups, idiots not flipping coins correctly, officiating in general, and the like. The Packers had a ton of things go catastrophically wrong and it is a testament to Mike McCarthy and especially Dom Capers that they were able to get a playoff appearance and win out of this team, while coming within a coin flip of the NFC Championship game.

Offense

It’s popular to give individual players grades after the season, and while that can be an interesting exercise, it’s not really appropriate for football where players are cogs in a machine. One failure sometimes had very little impact, and other times can destroy the entire contraption. For the Packers, every injury they suffered on offense grew like an exponential wave of futility, building on itself until it bricked the machine.

Let’s start by taking a look at Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb. With Jordy Nelson out for the year the team expected many different players to soak up those missing targets. They expected Davante Adams to do his share, for Randall Cobb to take on more responsibility, and for Montgomery, the 3rd round pick out of Stanford, to at least contribute a rookie’s share. They also signed the familiar James Jones to add some veteran savvy and add some depth. The Packers were on fire at the start of the season with James Jones leading the way in the first game against Chicago (a too-close 31-23 win) followed up with an extremely impressive win against the Seahawks. In that game, Montgomery was targeted four times, catching all four for 37 yards and crucially drew a 52-yard pass interference penalty on Richard Sherman at the end of the first half. At that point, Montgomery was officially a threat. While he was primarily a slot receiver like Cobb, Montgomery was built like a tank. When both were operating close to the line of scrimmage Montgomery was able to open things for Cobb, and in the first 5 weeks of the season Cobb looked very much like his old self, putting up numbers and sometimes dominating games. The Patriots have been masters of the short passing game since Randy Moss left and in these first few games the Montgomery/Cobb combo reminded me of them.  The matchup issues underneath made things much easier on James Jones who also put up most of his best performances early. When Davante Adams went down with an injury the offense just kept chugging along, as the Packers basically blew out an excellent Chiefs team, and took care of business against a few weaker opponents.

At the same time, the offensive line was in rough shape. Bryan Bulaga missed time early, and various nagging injuries to other members of the line meant extended time for backup Don Barclay at left tackle, right tackle, and right guard. Barclay can be serviceable in spurts but pressed into extended action he was an unmitigated disaster, allowing more pressures on Rodgers in limited time than even most bad starters do in a full season. The Packers schemed around this early while the receiving corps was still relatively healthy. Against Seattle, Barclay simply allowed their overaggressive defense to shove him into the backfield while Rodgers stepped up. It worked, for a bit. But once Montgomery went down, Davante Adams returned, and Randall Cobb’s right shoulder started to flare up, everything went horribly wrong.

Montgomery caught 80% of targeted passes, and while he didn’t have a great yards-per-catch rate, his consistency, and chemistry with Cobb kept the chains moving. When he was injured and Adams returned, the math no longer worked. Adams isn’t a slot receiver, and it quickly became apparent that most decent defensive backs could take him out of the game. Moreover, Adams 53% catch rate killed too many drives, and he bafflingly continued to suck up targets. Adams’ inability to beat even middling defensive backs or put pressure on safeties left Cobb and Jones to contend with top-level defensive backs, and in Cobb’s case, frequent double teams, and with the decaying offensive line, everything spiraled out of control.

Losing to Denver and Carolina isn’t anything to be embarrassed about, especially in retrospect, but those two games against excellent defenses further beat up already injured players, and provided a template on how to stop the offense. Jones and Adams were too slow to create consistent separation, even against press defenses. Since neither could consistently win 1-on-1 battles, and neither was a deep threat, safeties remained free to police Cobb, who had trouble getting off of jams due to his right shoulder injury. Richard Rodgers couldn’t extend a defense. Jeff Janis may have been a playoff hero, but even in that game he was frequently out of position and ran poor routes. He wasn’t trusted by the staff and with good reason. And because of the line problems, Pressure started to get to Rodgers. Finally, defenses learned to contain Rodgers rather than letting him roam and buy time on the outside.

All of these factors led to a passing game that never got to use the medium and deep parts of the field. Pressure made Rodgers antsy. Normally in these situations he would simply flick to a hot read, except opposing DBs rarely played off Packer wideouts as they didn’t fear being burned, which meant there often were no hot routes available. Every play became a scramble play, but with Aaron locked in the pocket this led to uncharacteristic inaccuracy and a ton of sacks. Eddie Lacy’s fitness issues and James Starks’ fumbling meant that there was often no running game to bail them out. It was a disaster. I know some blamed McCarthy for a lack of creative play calling, and he could have been better in that regard, but the fundamental problem with the offense was with personnel, not scheme.

While all of these things conspired together to create some truly awful offensive performances, there is reason for optimism for the future. Randall Cobb proved to be more of a complementary player which was unfortunate for this season, but when Nelson returns I expect vintage Cobb to come with him. We saw bursts of it this season, especially early, and with an offseason to recover from injuries the 25-year-old should be ready to go. Adams provided sub-replacement level play for the majority of the year, and even a small upgrade at position should provide a huge benefit to the offense overall as a result, even if it is simply Abbrederis playing opposite Nelson. Adams was simply too big a part of the offense while providing nothing valuable. That was a huge problem for this past season, but a huge opportunity next season. If the line is healthier next season, Rodgers will suddenly have more time to throw to better receivers, and even if injuries pop up, as they inevitably do, I expect a the team to find an upgrade for Barclay as well. Just as the various injuries conspired to destroy the Packer offense, undoing them will provide exponential gains. Remember, the 2014 Green Bay Packers scored the most points in the league. Most of that team is still here, just waiting to be unleashed.

Defense

The single worst thing about this season in that the Packers had a Super Bowl-caliber defense, and due to myriad issues with the offense, didn’t get to properly use it. The good news is that the foundation of this defense will be around for years to come. The defensive MVP of the team was easily Mike Daniels, who earned himself a brand new (and team friendly) contract. Daniels isn’t just the best defensive player on the Packers, he is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. His sack total may be modest, but he gets consistent pressure, takes on double teams, and is as effective as a run-stopper as he is a pass rusher. The rare player who isn’t just adequate, but excellent on all three downs, Daniels makes life easier for everyone else on the team. He occasionally flashes outstanding athleticism and lightning reflexes in pass defense as well. Daniels, was selected with a compensatory selection in the 4th round of the 2012 draft and remains one of Ted Thompson’s greatest finds.

He and Clay Matthews as a duo serve to cover the entire field in front of the secondary with Matthews serving to eat up whatever threat manages to slip by the front three. Matthews graded out as mediocre by many of the pundits and scouts I’ve read, but they all misunderstand the vital function he serves in this defense. Matthews is a rare talent capable of providing a dominating pass rush on the outside or hunting down running backs on the inside. He can even occasionally provide a deep drop in a zone. The fact that Matthews and Daniels are so complete as players allows much of the rest of the front seven to be filled by specialists. Matthews appeared to disappear at times and had a down year by many conventional statistics, but the fact is that this was a top five defensive unit that functioned because Matthews was willing and able to play so many different roles. He is the true quarterback of the defense, and without him the entire thing would collapse, just as the offense did without Nelson.

Julius Peppers will be back for one final go next season as well. While he definitely lost a step this season, he rounded into form as a formidable pass rusher. He can now be exposed in the run game, but if used properly Peppers should remain productive for at least one more season. I suspect 2016 will be his last, and hopefully he can go out with a bang.

The real strength of the defense going forward is in the secondary. At the safety position Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix had exceptional seasons. Burnett in particular was adept at closing down runners and picking up stray wideouts, and anchored the back half like a true all-pro. Clinton-Dix occasionally got lost in coverage, but he was a standout in run support (which shocked me), and was generally where he was supposed to be. Sam Shields was very much the same player he usually is. He can be beaten by bigger receivers, and he is slowed down by injury more than most, but when healthy there are few better in coverage, which he showed at the end of the season. Casey Hayward was exposed when forced outside, but remained a more than adequate slot corner. Damarious Randall showed fantastic ball skills and was a constant threat to take it away. His gambling occasionally got the best of him and he was sometimes burnable, but he has the makings of a future star. Finally, Quinten Rollins wasn’t quite as flashy as his rookie compatriot, but he showed elite instincts and almost unbelievable polish for a player not just new to his position, but new to football. To get this kind of production out of such a raw talent is fantastic, but what we’ve already seen is just his floor. The sky's the limit with Quinten Rollins.

I’d like to see more of Gunter and much less of Goodson, but overall this was one of the deepest units in the league, mostly composed of young, cost controlled players. Capers has often seen his great defenses take big steps back after good years, sometimes because of older players retiring or moving on, sometimes because of injury as with Nick Collins, but this time it looks sustainable. This was easily a top 10 defense, and had they played with an adequate offense capable of giving them a lead or chewing some clock, probably top 5.

If McCarthy and company can fix the offense, this defense stands ready to make them Super Bowl contenders once again.

Special Teams

Ron Zook actually did a good job with special teams this season.  While the Packers were not a great, or even particularly good unit, they were not cover-your-eyes embarrassing, and that is a huge step up from the norm. They were actually quite good in coverage where Jeff Janis and Aaron Ripkowski had solid seasons, and Ty Montgomery was outstanding as a return man before getting hurt. Janis and Micah Hyde often had issues with fielding punts near their own end zones, but this unit could have been much worse. Free-agent-to-be Mason Crosby had a solid season as per usual, and hopefully will return.

All of that said, Tim Masthay remains a huge problem, and his poor punting against Arizona was quite possibly the difference between winning and losing. I have seen some claim that Masthay’s short punts were by design, to reduce returns, but if that is the case the design needs to change, and he still allowed returns at a much higher than average rate. I suspect Crosby will be back as the team appreciates stability at the position, but it is at least possible that we will see all new kickers in Green Bay next season.