Photo by Evan Siegle - packers.com
Aaron Jones Sept. 18, 2022
Aaron Jones - Sept. 18, 2022
After a disappointing and sloppy opening loss against Minnesota, the Chicago Bears turned out to be just what the team needed to get themselves back to normal, as Green Bay was able to dominate the game in the trenches on offense while making a few key stops on defense. It was far from a perfect effort as Aaron Rodgers once again struggled with ball security, and the defense, which should be better against the run, was gashed by Bears’ running back David Montgomery. However, despite those issues, the game was never seriously in doubt.
The biggest difference for Green Bay was the return of offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins, which pushed disappointing guard Jake Hanson to the bench. While Jenkins looked a little rusty early, he is an enormous upgrade, and the entire line was much better for his presence. The biggest beneficiary of that upgrade was running back Aaron Jones. Jones shockingly received only 5 carries last week (for 49 yards), and Matt LaFleur clearly learned from his mistake as Jones dominated the proceedings with a 15-carry, 132-yard performance. Jones also chipped in 38 yards receiving, and two total scores, as the Bears had no answer for Green Bay’s star back.
Struggling to Get Going
AJ Dillon was not nearly as effective, rushing 18 times for just 61 yards, marking the second week in a row that he’s struggled to get going. Dillon seems to be more hesitant than he was last year and isn’t getting to holes as quickly. While Dillon is still more than capable of overpowering single defenders, he is too often crashing into the pile rather than finding the weak spot.
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While Aaron Rodgers had a modest statistical performance, it was more than enough to bury Chicago, and given the size of their lead at the half, it’s not terribly surprising. The most important takeaway from this game is just how equitable Rodgers was with the ball, targeting 9 different receivers at least once, and no individual receiver more than 4 times. While Rodgers was again conservative with his passes, there wasn’t really a need to take chances in this game as Chicago was completely overmatched. Just to show off what he’s still capable of, Rodgers did manage to hit a 55-yard play-action bomb to Sammy Watkins late in the 4th quarter.
The other side of the ball was slightly more concerning. The Bears were clearly afraid of their own quarterback as Justin Fields attempted only 11 passes, completing 7, for just 70 yards, despite trailing for the majority of the game. To make matters worse, 30 of those 70 yards came on an early trick play, as the Bears ran a flea-flicker to Equanimeous St. Brown, which led to their only touchdown of the game. On conventional passes, Fields was 6 of 10 for 40 yards and an interception, while taking 3 sacks for a loss of 22 yards.
No Threat through the Air
Despite the Bears presenting no threat through the air, they were still able to run the ball at will. David Montgomery was completely shut down by San Francisco last week but exploded for 122 yards on just 15 carries this week. Backup Khalil Herbert was just as efficient, gaining 38 yards on just 4 carries. Per the advanced metric Expected Points Added (EPA), the two backs were nearly as efficient as the Packer passing game. Aaron Rodgers accounted for .48 EPA per pass while David Montgomery averaged .47 EPA per run. That is just not supposed to happen. The running game is almost always less efficient than passing just by its nature, and there is no way to sugar coat the result for the Packer defensive line.
The addition of Jarran Reed, combined with linebackers De’Vondre Campbell and rookie Quay Walker should make performances like this a relic of the past. Instead, Reed, Campbell, and safety Adrian Amos received three of the lowest run defense grades of the week from the analytics and grading site Pro Football Focus. Campbell had trouble finishing tackles multiple times and has seen his broken tackle percentage skyrocket from just 3 percent last year to 15 percent so far in 2022. Walker, at least, was excellent as a coverage linebacker and a run-stopper, but he can’t do it alone.
The Bears have a bottom-third offensive line, and no ability whatsoever to pass. Getting gouged by this team on the ground is inexcusable, and the Packers will have to get themselves straightened out quickly. They next face the Tamp Bay Buccaneers, possibly without receivers Julio Jones and Chris Godwin (injured) as well as Mike Evans (suspended). Tom Brady is more than happy to lean on running back Leonard Fournette when it suits him, especially without his top targets. And unlike Justin Fields, Brady won’t miss in the passing game.
A Quick Note on Special Teams
For the second week in a row, the Packers played a complete game without a major blunder on special teams. While they do occasionally incur a random “block in the back” penalty, they are no longer something we need to worry about. New special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia seems to be worth every penny.
