It’s hard to overstate just how good Aaron Jones has been in his young career. He’s not perfect as he’s still a work-in-progress as a receiver, but his pass protection has come a long way, and rarely has there been a more dominant player on the ground. While Jones’ career is still a small sample size, and a few bad games could easily knock him down a peg, consider the following:
- According to the Pro-Football-Reference.com play index, there is only one post-merger running back with at least 154 carries and at least a six-yards-per-carry average: Aaron Jones.
- Post-merger, there are only 19 running backs to have at least 73 carries and average more than six yards per carry. Aaron Jones’ 2018 (so far) is 3rd on that list behind Darren Sproles in 2011, and Bo Jackson in 1987. The list contains some small-sample oddities, but it also contains a few all-time greats like Barry Sanders, OJ Simpson, and Adrian Peterson.
- In 2017, Aaron Jones had a 31.3% Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a statistic by the advanced website FootballOutsiders.com that measures a player’s efficiency and explosiveness compared to an average player. Had he enough runs to qualify, that would have ranked him 2nd, behind Alvin Kamara of the Saints.
- This season, Jones entered the game against the Dolphins at 26.6%, which would have put him first among qualified running backs, and that lead will surely grow after his performance against Miami.
Usually the running game is there to take pressure off of the passing game, but, generally speaking, an average passing game of about seven yards per attempt will be more efficient than an average, or even a good running game of four or five yards per attempt. In this game, Aaron Rodgers averaged a pedestrian seven yards per pass, while Jones averaged nearly 10 yards per rush. More impressive, Jones didn’t just load up on one or two big runs. He was “successful” (meaning he left the team closer to converting a first down than they were on the play before), on nearly all of his runs, and he ripped off explosive seemingly at will.
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Jones had six rushes of 10 yards or more, including a 67-yarder, and on the season he averages a big play (10 yards or more) every 4.1 attempts.
It’s a good thing Jones was as dominant as he was, because the passing game continues to sputter, with Aaron Rodgers missing open receivers, or holding onto the ball too long, waiting for a play to develop. Mike McCarthy actually called a good game, and Rodgers had Davante Adams open for big gains several times, and just couldn’t, or wouldn’t pull the trigger. He underthrew deep receivers on at least two occasions and made what may be the single worst throw I’ve ever seen Rodgers make.
It’s strange to have Rodgers be a real problem, but the passing attack isn’t where it needs to be. Getting explosive plays from the running game couldn’t come at a better time.
The Grass is Always Greener
One theme for the Packers this season has been the number of backups who are clearly better than their starting counterparts. Many of these players are now getting a chance, like Aaron Jones, who started the season behind Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery, but that chance has generally arrived due to injury, not due to coaches making the correct call of their own free will.
Reggie Gilbert and Kyler Fackrell have been better than Nick Perry and Clay Matthews. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been much better than Randall Cobb. It looks like almost everyone is better than Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, and undrafted free agent rookie Raven Greene made more plays in a half than Clinton Dix made all of last season. Rookie Josh Jones has excelled as the hybrid safety-linebacker after not playing for much of the season.
McCarthy has always been deferential to veterans, but that, and an apparent lack of self-scouting, has hurt the team this season. I hope young players continue to capitalize on their opportunities, as it appears that this team is deeper than many think, and Aaron Jones may be the leader of a bigger youth movement.
Special Teams
Finally, Special Teams has been a disaster all season, and it’s probably time to relieve coach Ron Zook of his duties. Players seem completely unaware of when they should take a knee versus bringing the ball out, when to call for a fair catch, and when not to throw a block in the back. Careless mistakes including penalties, fumbles and blocked kicks plague the team every week, and while the Packers did run a successful fake punt in this game, given the situation, it seems more like a risky, careless move designed to take some heat off of a coach on the hot seat.
