Photo Credit: Evan Siegle
While Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen may siphon off a few votes, and some members of the old school may reward Derrick Henry for a 2000-yard season, Aaron Rodgers is the favorite to win the NFL’s MVP award, and with good reason. Rodgers and Matt LaFleur finally gelled after a nice warm-up year in 2019, and the results blew everyone else out of the water, including the all-world Mahomes. Indeed, the only major statistic where Rodgers trails anyone is in raw yards, and that is merely a function of also trailing in attempts due to Green Bay’s pace of play, and consistent leads.
I never thought Rodgers would attain this level of play again after watching him struggle in Mike McCarthy’s system, however it’s become abundantly clear that time has passed McCarthy by, and that Rodgers is far more adaptable than many thought. The single most surprising improvement from Rodgers is sack rate. Rodgers has always taken a lot of sacks as he scrupulously avoids interceptions and waits for the big play to develop. This season he took a career low 20 sacks (a total that is lower than even his injury shortened years), and finished 6th best in the league in sacks per pass attempt. This improvement is a direct result of Rodgers trusting the system, getting the ball out on time, and hitting his dump-off when under pressure. If Rodgers has another four or five good years left in him, not taking those additional hits will be the reason for it.
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Rodgers also stole the completion percentage crown from Drew Brees on the last day of the season, an incredible feat considering how much Rodgers throws downfield compared to Brees. He threw eight more touchdowns than the next closest quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Russell Wilson). He also led the league in interception percentage, touchdown percentage, Adjusted Yards per Attempt, and even good old fashioned QB rating.
Leading the League
Advanced stats largely agree as he led the league in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play, and in the EPA-based Completion Percentage over Expected. Any one of these statistics is a good proxy for who provided the most value in a given year. Leading the league in all three should leave little room for doubt. He’s even number one according to Pro Football Focus’ more subjective grading system. Whether you prefer stats, or the simple eye test, it’s hard to argue against Rodgers this year.
Good quarterbacks should make their teammates better, and Rodgers’ outstanding play clearly carries over to his receivers as well. We’ve known that Davante Adams is a great receiver for years, but his production was hurt by Mike McCarthy’s system almost as much as Rodgers. In 2020 Adams finished first in yards per game, and first in total touchdowns with 18. Adams catches a high percentage of the offense's least efficient passes because he is Rodgers’ go-to when plays break down. This tends to cap his efficiency according to advanced stats, but this year he broke through, leading Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Average (DYAR) statistic for the first time. Robert Tonyan paced all tight ends with 11 touchdowns, and led the league in Football Outsiders DVOA statistics by a huge amount. In fact, Tonyan had the highest DVOA for a tight end since the 2010 season. Even Marquez Valdes-Scantling improved dramatically from previous seasons, finishing a very solid 25th in DVOA.
The hallmark of a quarterback friendly system is this kind of efficiency. The Matt LaFleur/Kyle Shanahan system theoretically works without elite quarterback play. Through use of play-action passing, mesh plays, and pre-snap motion, it frequently creates wide open receivers, and opportunities for big plays down the field. As it turns out, if you have an all-time great in such a system, he makes the system almost unbeatable.
The Very Real Packer Defense
I still believe Mike Pettine’s overall bend-but-don’t-break philosophy is a problem, and he still gives up easy plays on 3rd down far too frequently, but we should give credit where it is due. Pettine has made changes to the defensive scheme, and as a result, the team is playing some of its best defense just as the playoffs begin. The most promising development on Sunday against the Bears was the elite performance of Jaire Alexander. Alexander has been the team’s best corner by a wide margin, but his performance had tapered off slightly in the second half of the year. He rebounded nicely on Sunday as he took the Bears best receiver Allen Robinson out of the game. Without his best target available, Bears’ quarterback Mitch Trubisky fell apart.
The Packer defense has upped its game across the board, with the Smiths creating pressure, Kenny Clark eating up anything in the middle, and safety Darnell Savage playing the best football of his career. Poor cornerback play can undo a lot of that good. If the Packers make a deep playoff run, Alexander will be one of the main reasons why.
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