On paper, there’s nothing wrong with a 31-13 win over any opponent in the NFL. Green Bay rebounded from a disappointing loss against the NFC’s elite 49ers with a convincing win over the Giants, but if it left you feeling a bit underwhelmed, there is good reason for that. Despite the impressive margin of victory and an impressive “on paper” game from Aaron Rodgers, it wasn’t actually that different from the 49ers game. The Packers still relied primarily on passes behind the line of scrimmage to Davante Adams to move the ball. They also still gave up big plays on defense and allowed too many yards. They played their game like they always do, the Giants played their game and this is what happens.
The Giants have allowed an average of 28.5 points per game this season, and so putting 31 on them simply isn’t that impressive. The Packers also, for the first time in a while, forced multiple turnovers in a game, which is the only way the Packer defense ever looks good. Unfortunately, no one turns the ball over quite like the Giants, where rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has 11 interceptions and 15 fumbles in just 10 starts this season. While not every interception was lucky, all were on poor throws, and Darnell Savage’s pick was thrown directly to him.
It was a nice win, and the Packers are in excellent position for the playoffs because of it, but they are fundamentally the same team. With two exceptions:
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Allen Lazard
When the Packers picked Aaron Jones out of Texas El-Paso in the fifth round, it was a triumph of scouting. In terms of athletic measurables, Jones was beyond reproach, but his small-school pedigree meant there were questions about whether he could succeed at the NFL level. Jones dominated his conference, and those concerns should have been alleviated by a mix of obvious physical talent and college production. The league’s miss was the Packers’ gain.
Lazard played four years at Iowa State, and while his stats won’t blow anyone away, he was productive every year, and First Team All-Big 12 in his third season. Lazard is also a rare physical talent, especially in terms of raw size. Lazard is almost a tight end at 6 feet 5, 227 pounds, and while he was a little slow in the 40-yard dash, he excelled in every other testing drill, with above-average scores in vertical, broad jump and bench press. It’s easy to see why Lazard got a chance, but he’s also much more polished than you’d expect and is already one of the better route runners on the team. He still occasionally misses a play call, and did so in this game, but outside of Adams he is clearly the best receiver on the team. He’s been sneaky good since his game-saving performance against Detroit, and he finally had his big break out this week, catching three deep balls for 103 yards and a touchdown. He was also their best special teams cover guy and was given game balls for both efforts.
If Lazard can continue to perform at this level, it will be a huge boon to the offense. They have not had another consistent outside threat this season—and in reality, for several. He should continue to see the majority of snaps and could be a real difference-maker come playoff time.
JK Scott
Scott started the season off as one of the league’s best punters, bombing huge kicks and frequently flipping field position. Given the state of the Packer defense, those extra yards were crucial. Then, in week eight, something changed. It appears that Scott, either by himself or at the request of coaching, attempted to take a more directional approach, perhaps seeking hang time over distance.
His yards per punt plummeted from 49.2 to 36.5, and his shanks continually led to poor field position and directly to a few losses. Scott finally abandoned this strategy against New York and went back to the pure power approach that was so successful early. It paid off in a big way, with three excellent poor-weather punts of 47, 47 and 46 yards, pinning New York deep in their own territory. The Packers have a history of having their punters focus on limiting returns, but believe it or not, this cuts against analytics. While limiting returns is a fine goal, most of the time it is your coverage, and not hangtime, that matters most. The additional yards gained and field position shifts from the occasional 65-yarder are more than worth the risk. Don’t undersell punting, as Scott’s poor effort last week led directly to 49er points. His improvement will be key going forward.
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Green Bay still has a few changes to make if they want to be real contenders, and I’m not sure anything can save the defense, but at least they’re starting to realize who their true playmakers are on offense, and at least their punter appears to be back. It’s a start.