Jim Bievers/ Packers.com
The Packers have faced elite defenses in back-to-back weeks, but that fact makes their play-calling over that time period all the more suspect. Against a talented, elite defense it is imperative that you dive deep into the playbook, present unscouted looks, and use route combinations to spring receivers. Against Denver the Packers did none of that, and for half of the Carolina game it was just as bad.
I’m not the only one who noticed this. Sports Illustrated’s Doug Farrar made the following observation about the Packer receivers around half timer:
There was a big difference between this game and the Denver game though, and I am actually much more optimistic after watching the second half than I was after watching the Denver game. It all started for me on the Packers’ 3rd offensive play of the 2nd half. Randall Cobb executed a fantastic double-move on a combination route with Davante Adams. Adams lined up outside and ran a slant (and to his credit, was also open), while Cobb, from the slot, ran outside and presented as if he was running a shallow flat route outside. Cobb did a great job selling the route, and gained just enough separation when he broke the route upfield. The safety had already taken a few steps towards Adams and Rodgers hit Cobb perfectly in stride for a beautiful touchdown. It was the kind of creative play-calling that had been completely absent for six quarters, and instantly injected some hope into the game.
The rest of the third quarter was uneventful, but there were still some signs that important changes had been made. Davante Adams had two nice routes for decent gains, but Carolina’s excellent defense was still mostly equal to the task. The Carolina pass rush was ferocious for the entire game and sacks on Rodgers (one by Jared Allen of all people) ended many promising drives. If you have an overly aggressive pass rush one of the best plays to throw at it is a screen, and early in the 4th quarter James Starks ripped off two big gains on screen passes. Screens had been largely absent from the playbook recently as well, and this was a welcome return to form. Starks would repeatedly take advantage of space behind the pass rush in the 2nd half, and ended up having one of his best games as a Packer.
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Even the failed 4th-down play at the end of the game was extremely well-designed, and the fact that it failed has as much to do with Carolina’s defensive effort as it does with the Packers’ failing to execute. The Panthers deserve praise for blowing up good play that should have been an easy touchdown. The play was designed to get Randall Cobb open, and James Jones did a fantastic job of leading his defender right into Cobb’s defender for a perfect legal pick play. Unfortunately Corey Linsley was blown up almost immediately and Rodgers was forced to backpedal before the route completely developed. Richard Rodgers also mucked up anything that may have happened on the other side of the play by getting a late release, clogging up the throwing lane to Adams, and running directly into a linebacker for no reason, but on the whole the play should have worked and it was emblematic of the creativity shown in the 2nd half.
The Defense is Fine. Really.
Dom Capers takes a lot of criticism, but he almost always does a great job making halftime adjustments, and in truth the Panthers were not nearly as offensively dominant as they appeared. Keep in mind that Capers was playing with a short deck as injuries in the secondary forced Demetri Goodson into a major role, and he just isn’t very good. Goodson was targeted frequently by Newton, and even when he wasn’t, Goodson’s blown assignments led to several instances of players being out of position. Newton is a poor passer, but even he can hit a deep ball to a largely uncovered receiver.
The Panthers were also very effective going after a still hobbled Clay Matthews. Matthews had one of his worst games as he was frequently stoned while rushing Newton, and a major liability in pass coverage as well as run defense. One of Capers’ best moves in the 2nd half was getting Jake Ryan more involved. Ryan had a great game across the board and played as well inside as any Packer linebacker has this season, and his 39 snaps were a season high by far. He was a revelation. You may not have noticed that they Panthers only scored 10 points in the 2nd half, and the Packer defense actually forced five 3-and-outs, and a turnover. They were very good, just a little too late.
In truth the first half wasn’t even as bad as it looked. The bombs allowed by the Packers were mostly the result of one-time breakdowns caused by not having Shields or Rollins available, and not anything systemic. On most days Devin Funchess probably drops one or two of his big catches as he entered the game with 7 catches and 6 drops on the season. And the continued struggles of Eddie Lacy and Tim Masthay basically gave the Panthers free points. When the Panthers were not hitting bombs they were largely unable to move the ball, and bombs have a large element of luck to them.
In the end this was a loss to a very good Panther team, and it might serve the long term function of kicking the offense back into high gear. If the defense can get healthy this team is still a force, even if did not appear so at a superficial level on Sunday.
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Still Needs Work: Lacy, Kuhn, Masthay, and Timeouts
Fans seem to love John Kuhn, and he was once a valuable lead blocker and pass-protector, but those days are long gone. He has always been a lousy short-yardage back who frequently costs the team first downs and touchdowns, but at this point he offers almost no value at all. In the 2nd quarter he made one of the worst attempts at a block I’ve ever seen as Kawann Short was able to sack Aaron Rodgers without ever being touched. Kuhn may offer veteran leadership, but that’s no longer enough to warrant being one of 53 people on a football team. He has become a huge liability.
That play was immediately followed by a 26-yard punt from Tim Masthay that all but handed the Panthers a touchdown. Masthay was a disaster again, allowing returns on all of his long punts save one, and hitting a few clunkers in between. The Panthers spent a lot of time in the first half in Packer territory partially because the Packer punter is almost never able to flip the field.
Eddie Lacy remains a huge problem, but at least James Starks is there as the obvious solution. Lacy had carries of -1, 3, 1, 0 and 7 yards, including a disastrous fumble. He was also targeted once in the passing game, but failed to haul it in. Any power he once had is long since gone, and speed was never his strong suit. James Starks isn’t just better than the current version of Eddie Lacy, he’s much better. Lacy continues to put the offense in poor position and there is currently no reason to give him any carries. I would not just bury him behind Starks but behind Alonzo Harris as well.
Finally, when Clements took over play-calling duties one of the hopes was that little things like time-out usage, two-point conversions, and replay challenges would get a little better. So far that has not been the case, and you will be hard-pressed to find a worse use of a timeout than the Packers’ second timeout in the second half with just three minutes remaining. I am consistently gob-smacked by the lack of understanding of the value of a timeout shown by most professional football teams. On the play in question the Packers used a timeout to avoid a delay penalty, not to stop the clock. The clock was in fact already stopped.
There are situations where a timeout is worth saving five yards, but this was not one of them. In this instance, losing that timeout was the equivalent of costing yourself a possession. With two timeouts and maybe the two-minute warning, if you fail to score you still have enough time to bottle up Carolina, force a punt, and give it one more shot. With only one timeout Carolina can basically run out the clock, and things got even worse when the Packers let the clock run under two minutes. Costing yourself a possession is essentially the same as costing yourself a turnover, and a turnover is never worth 5 yards.
People will focus on the failed 4th down play, but the Packers lost the game a hundred times before that.
