Photo: Evan Siegle - packers.com
Lazard and Jones at Lambeau Oct. 2, 2022
Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones and the Packers at Lambeau - Oct. 2, 2022
The Packers are in a good spot at 3-1, heading to England to face a lackluster New York Giants team. The NFC North is shaping up to be as weak as everyone projected, and even if the Packers don’t beat out the Vikings for a division title, they can likely coast to a playoff berth.
If they’re going to do any damage in the playoffs, they have one major problem they need to get fixed, that being Aaron Rodgers. There are other problems as well. The rookie receivers both have ball security issues, Elgton Jenkins does not appear all the way back from his injury, and with David Bakhtiari still rounding into form, the offensive line has struggled. The good news on all of these is that time will improve them. More experience for Doubs and Watson will help them improve, and the line will continue to heal and gel. The problems with Rodgers so far run deeper.
Everything detailed above obviously impacts Rodgers’ game, but there are some clear issues that are fully on the quarterback and reflect a lack of proper attention to detail uncharacteristic of Rodgers.
Mechanical Problem?
The first big indicator of something being off is a relapse of a mechanical problem we last saw in 2018 near the end of the Mike McCarthy era. On throws downfield, Rodgers is almost always falling back and throwing off of his back foot. When Rodgers is right, he steps into his deep shots, and when he does, few are more accurate. When he starts throwing off his back foot, he almost always comes up short, and this has become common this season, especially on scramble drills.
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Rodgers has always been one of the best when a play breaks down, but here, his age is also starting to show. His mobility isn’t what it once was, and while he still moves well inside the pocket, he’s having increasing difficulty outside of it. Rodgers’ scrambling has been slowly declining for years. However, he’s taken a huge step back in the first quarter of 2022, having rushed for just 9 yards on 8 carries (with a long of 7 yards), good for a 1.1 yards per carry average. His previous career low was 3.1 yards per carry, set last season.
It’s not just that losing the occasionally Rodgers rushing play if harmful, though it certainly is. The bigger problem is his statistic serving as a proxy for mobility generally. This isn’t simply a strategic choice. The evidence suggests that Rodgers is materially slower than he ever has been, and that means more sacks, more short throws, and fewer big, improvisational plays. More alarmingly, it also indicates the real onset of physical decline for Rodgers in his age 39 season. Rodgers has played at an MVP level since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach, and not all of their offensive struggles this year are his fault, but some cracks are starting to show, and when that happens, the end can come quickly.
Stopping the Giants
The Packers will likely get a break as they travel across the pond to take on the Giants, as both starting quarterback Daniel Jones and backup Tyrod Taylor are likely to miss the game. This would make it the second game in a row where the Packers face a third stringer, having bested the Patriots and Bailey Zappe on Sunday, with Davis Webb lurking for the Giants. While all quarterback injuries are a huge blow to their teams, this one is especially bad for New York. While neither Jones, nor Taylor are particularly good passers, they both make excellent use of their mobility and, paired with Saquon Barkley, could have capitalized on a lackluster Packer run defense.
Davis Webb is a poor passer as well, but lacks the speed of his peers, and if he plays, he will be a much simpler assignment for Green Bay’s linebackers. With Jones, the Giants could run a gameplan similar to what the Bears did, but with a better running back, and superior passing. Without him, the Packers should be able to stack the box against Barkley while still controlling the passing game with ease. The Giants’ receivers are ill-equipped to help Webb as top wideout Sterling Shepherd was lost to an ACL injury earlier this season. While the Packers have been hurt by the Patriots and Bears running backs, they were also able to contain Leonard Fournette as needed.
Given the long travel and short week, game plans will likely be simple for both teams. That should help the Packers, who have an overwhelming talent advantage. They should take the opportunity to get their rookie receivers some work and continue to improve for the much more difficult second half of the schedule.
