Packer Playoff Possibilities

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How much do you care about the Packers winning the NFC North? I don’t care even a little bit. I am a close follower of the Packers and football in general, and I could not tell you how many division titles they have won without looking it up. There are only four teams, and I am confident they’ve won over a quarter of them, but that’s as far as I will go. If the Packers beat the Vikings for the division crown next Sunday night I’ll be happy for a while. It’s always fun to win and I suppose hanging up another banner is fine, but if you want the Packers to actually do something in the playoffs, winning next probably isn’t a great idea.

The Packer-Cardinal game went about how I expected it to go. There is perhaps no team better built to beat the depleted Packers than the Cardinals, who excel in all areas and can put up points on basically any defense. The Packers looked awful, but this loss doesn’t mean the Packers are suddenly an awful team. They may not be great, but they’re better than average and still capable of beating other average NFL teams. If they run into the Cardinals again I expect a repeat performance, but the NFL playoffs can be funny, and there is always a chance they can avoid them if a few things break right.

I think we all know this team isn’t winning any Super Bowls, and frankly, will be lucky to get out of the first round, but I like watching the Packers, and want them to keep playing as long as possible, so here are the things you should be rooting for next Sunday, along with the best possible playoff scenarios.

1. You want to face the Cardinals as late as possible, or, preferably not at all.

The Panthers and Seahawks are obviously great teams as well, but the Packers showed some moxie against both of them and even defeated the Seahawks. They would be underdogs against both, but a victory would not be out of the question. The Cardinals, on the other hand, would probably beat the Packers again, and just as badly. The most likely scenario so far is the Cardinals getting the 2 seed while the Panthers remain at 1. The Panthers finish up with the Buccaneers, fresh off a loss to the Chicago Bears, and will probably not play as badly as they did against the Falcons. The Panthers will end up playing the worst seed left in Round 2 of the playoffs, and if the Packers win next week they will be locked into the 3 seed, meaning that should they advance there is no chance they would be the lowest seed remaining, and would face the Cardinals again.

If the Packers were to lose to the Vikings next week, the worst they would finish is the 5 seed. They would then travel to Washington for the first round to face the 4th seeded Redskins, who will be the worst team in the playoffs. The Packers cannot finish behind Seattle due to their earlier victory over the Seahawks, and so cannot be seeded any lower than 5th. In this scenario the Seahawks would travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings. Even though they’re coming off a loss to the Case Keenum-led Rams, the Seahawks are still a dangerous team and would likely be favored over the Vikings, meaning that even in this scenario, there is a good chance that the Packers would still face the 2 seed in Round 2, but at least there is a decent chance the Vikings could knock off the Seahawks.

2. You always want to be playing the worst team.

Washington currently ranks 15th in DVOA, and they’re coming off of a big win against Philadelphia, but Philadelphia is the best team they’ve beaten all year. Their 6th ranked Special Teams play makes them appear much better than they truly are as they are below average on offense and defense.

I would not quibble with anyone who would rather face the Vikings as we know the Packers can beat them, but the Redskins are a bad team in one of the worst divisions in NFL history, and there is a very good chance the Packer defense would shut them down completely. They are my preferred Round 1 opponent.

3. The Ideal Scenario

The Packers were flexed into the Sunday night game, meaning that when they play the will know everyone else’s fate. I will be cheering hard for Tampa Bay to upset Carolina, potentially knocking the Panthers into the 2 seed. While it’s likely that the Panthers would destroy the Packers every bit as badly as the Cardinals, the Packers at least showed some signs of life in their earlier matchup, and the Falcons’ relentless pressure on Cam Newton in Carolina’s first loss showed a good template for defeating them. If the Panthers take care of business I think the Packers are better off losing on Sunday night. It gives them the best odds of avoiding the Cardinals altogether. Even if the Panthers somehow do fall to the 2 seed, the Packers still might be better off losing on Sunday night, as the Seahawks would be very likely to take out the Vikings, and of all teams remaining, would have the best odds of knocking off the Cardinals before the Conference final. This admittedly unlikely scenario would even give the Packers an outside (by which I mean Rick Vaughn pre-glasses way outside) shot of hosting the Seahawks for the NFC Championship game. If the Packers beat the Vikings next Sunday, most roads lead back through Arizona.

There is not a lot to say about this Sunday’s game. The Packers were outclassed in every phase. They were down several offensive linemen and their receivers continue to be an issue. They were simply steamrolled by a much better, much more talented team, and it is really as simple as that. Their only hope is to avoid facing the elite teams. Against teams like themselves, average to good teams with obvious flaws, they will have a chance. If that means losing the division to the Vikings next week, I’m all for it. This team may be lousy on offense, but they can still bring it on defense, and given the right opponents, that can still be a recipe for victory.

*If you want to read more analysis of the Cardinal game, just check out my preview from last week.